American Economics Thread

[gelgoog]

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There is no way nuclear power has an ERoEI anywhere close to oil. I have seen numbers like this before and they always use outdated data like assuming the uranium enrichment is done with processes basically no one uses anymore. Nuclear has an ERoEI larger than anything else out there. Just as an example of the difference modern enrichment processes make just look at Tricastin Nuclear Power Plant in France. They used to use 3x 915 MWe nuclear reactors just to power the gas diffusion uranium enrichment process to produce fuel for all French nuclear reactors (several dozen). The replacement gas centrifuges uranium enrichment process uses 50x less power which means 2700 MWe have been put back into the electric grid. i.e. it used to take 2745 MWe to enrich the uranium fuel for all those reactors and now it takes 45 MWe. That is just one example of the difference modern nuclear technologies make and this is something that is in commercial use today. Not a prototype. Centrifuge technology is used in Russia, China, France, and the Netherlands to produce all their nuclear fuel for example. Plus a lot of their production is exported to places like Japan or the USA.

It is even possible to increase performance of that further with laser separation. Plus like we talked about before there is work being done on fast nuclear reactors which will reduce the need for enrichment and enable to both increase the rate of burn of existing fuel and to use increase use of U-238 as fuel further decreasing fuel costs. Fast reactors can burn what is currently either classified as tailings or waste into energy.

We could power all our current consumption of a couple of centuries on coal alone. Several centuries or thousands of years on nuclear alone.

 

[localizer]

Good Ray Dalio talk on China's challenge to US financial status.

 

[quantumlight]

Good Ray Dalio talk on China's challenge to US financial status.

His new book (excerpts):

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Classically, the most dangerous part of the trade/economic war comes when countries cut the other off from essential imports (e.g., China cutting the US off from rare earth elements that are needed for the production of lots of high-tech items, auto engines, and defense systems, and the US cutting China off from essential technologies) and/or from essential imports from other countries (e.g., the US cutting China off from semiconductors from Taiwan, crude oil from the Middle East or Russia, or metals from Australia)—much like the US cutting off oil to Japan was a short leading indicator of the military war that followed. Thus far we haven’t seen this, though we have seen movements in this direction. I’m not saying such a move is likely but I do want to be clear that moves to cut off essential imports from either side would signal a major escalation that could lead to a much worse conflict. If that doesn’t happen evolution will take its normal course so international balances of payments will evolve primarily based on each country’s evolving competitiveness.

The technology war is a much more serious war than the trade war because whoever wins the technology war will probably also win the economic and military wars.

If the United States shuts off Chinese access to essential technologies that would signal a major step up in war risks. On the other hand, if events continue to transpire as they have been transpiring, China will be much more independent and in a much stronger position than the United States technologically in 5-10 years, at which time we will see these technologies much more decoupled.

It is impossible to visualize what the next major war will be like, though it probably will be much worse than most people imagine. That is because a lot of weaponry has been developed in secret and because the creativity and capabilities to inflict pain have grown enormously in all forms of warfare since the last time most powerful weapons were used and seen in action. There are now more types of warfare than one can imagine and, within each, more weapons systems than anyone knows. While of course nuclear warfare is a scary prospect I have heard equally scary prospects of biological, cyber, chemical, space, and other types of warfare. Many of these have been untested so there is a lot of uncertainty about how they will work.

Based on what we do know the headline is that a) the United States and China’s geopolitical war in the East and South China Seas is escalating militarily because both sides are testing each other’s limits, b) China is now militarily stronger than the United States in the East and South China Seas so the US would probably lose a war in that region, while c) the United States is stronger around the world and overall and would probably “win” a bigger war, though d) a bigger war is too complicated to imagine well because of the large number of unknowns, including how some other countries would behave in it and what technologies secretly exist. The only thing that most informed people agree on is that such a war would be unimaginably horrible.

Also notable, a) China’s rate of improvement in its military power, like its other rates of improvement, has been extremely fast, especially over the last 10 years, and b) the rate of progress in the future is expected to be even faster, especially if its economic and technological improvements continue to outpace those of the United States. Some people imagine that China could achieve broad military superiority in 5-10 years.

As for potential locations of military conflict, Taiwan, the East and South China Seas, and North Korea are the biggest hot spots, and India and Vietnam are the next biggest (for reasons I won’t digress into).

As far as a big hot war between the United States and China is concerned, it would include all the previously mentioned types of wars plus more pursued at their maximums because, in a fight for survival, each would throw all they have at the other, the way other countries in history have, so it would be World War III, and World War III would likely be much more deadly than World War II, which was much more deadly than World War I because of the technological advances that have been made in the ways we can hurt each other.

In thinking about the timing of a war, I keep in mind the principle that when countries have big internal disorder, it is an opportune moment for opposing countries to aggressively exploit their vulnerabilities. For example, the Japanese made their moves to take control of European colonies in Southeast Asia in the 1930s when the European countries were challenged by their depressions and their conflicts. History has also taught us that when there are leadership transitions and/or weak leadership, at the same time that there is big internal conflict, the risk of the enemy making an offensive move should be considered elevated. For example, those conditions could exist in the upcoming US presidential election. However, because time is on China’s side (because of the trends of improvements and weakenings shown in prior charts), if there is to be a war, it is in the interest of the Chinese to have it later (e.g., 5-10 years from now when it will likely be more self-sufficient and stronger) and in the interest of the US to have it sooner.

 

[localizer]

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Whites own 90% of wealth in the US. No wonder they voted for Trump.

 

[emblem21]

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Whites own 90% of wealth in the US. No wonder they voted for Trump.

One these days, these people that own all this wealth right now are not going to have that wealth for very long. Especially when hyperinflation comes along with the ever increasing disasters come in hot. Have you seen the US debt lately, something is going to give soon

 

[localizer]

One these days, these people that own all this wealth right now are not going to have that wealth for very long. Especially when hyperinflation comes along with the ever increasing disasters come in hot. Have you seen the US debt lately, something is going to give soon

Their wealth is in stocks and real estate which protects against inflation though.

The blacks and immigrants without generational wealth or investment education suffer the most.

 

[Nutrient]

if there is to be a war, it is in the interest of the Chinese to have it later (e.g., 5-10 years from now when it will likely be more self-sufficient and stronger) and in the interest of the US to have it sooner

I agree, the sooner World War 3 happens, the more likely an American victory will be. But an American win isn't very likely even now, as China has an enormous advantage: that of being the defender. The US would have to be two or three times stronger than the Middle Kingdom to be reasonably sure of winning; that is not the case even now, and the advantage can only tilt more in China's favor 5-10 years from now.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Their wealth is in stocks and real estate which protects against inflation though.

The blacks and immigrants without generational wealth or investment education suffer the most.

Started doing some low cash stock trading last year and I was surprised how easy those stock price swing 10% up and down.
It just unfair do like 8 of those trade being low sell high and you have double your initial cash. Then I facepalmed myself that didn't started doing it 5 years earlier.

 

[2handedswordsman]

Their wealth is in stocks and real estate which protects against inflation though.

The blacks and immigrants without generational wealth or investment education suffer the most.

LOL can't you see that this is a classic bubble ready to burst situation? Printed money stuck in stocks and overvalued real estate. Never to be invested in real economy. Bussiness environment in USA is the worst ever...i hope social unrest to occure before the bubble bursts, before average people come in front of fait accompli. But first of all they have to figure out what they do demand.

 

[Hitchhiker]

The strength of an economy ultimately is dependent on the skills and work ethics of the workforce.

USA has had the advantage of attracting the world"s talent, but that is changing with the increase in racism and specifically with the witch hunt against Chinese.

As for homebrew USA talent we have this:

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If China can avoid open warfare with the USA in the next 10 years, these chicken will come home to roost for the USA.