American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
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@KYli that is the way to treat a friend , you warned him of incoming danger, but if you fill yourself with hatred not only you disregard it but considered that advise as a threat.
I am purely perplexed that these days China with relatively good economic growth and modest stimulus are full of concerned analysis, here for example and recently from ex-minister of finance Lou Jiwei, whereas the rest of the world is flooded by ultra-liberal stimulus, yet nobody asked/analyzed the possible threats posed by such stimulus. Everybody is focusing on passing giant stimulus these days.
@caudaceus that for me is a sign of a good manager, make hay while the sun shine and preparing for a raining day.
Oh no, it makes perfect sense. We always look out for number #1 which is ourselves, and we try to save our own ass.
People sounding the warning in China is just trying to look important to save their own job. If they are wrong, does not really matter because they were diligent in doing their job.
People in the west, cannot say they are losing. To say China is beating America, would be un-American. That is how comrade Chang has long life being perfectly wrong all the time. Comrade Chang has not been right even once, a perfect record. In the west, you must say what people want to hear in order to save your job.
What is going on in the west, is totally against Chinese tradition. In China, it is always about the righteous official in the folklore and official histories.
That is why I consider myself fresh off the boat. I will never understand this place.
Congrats @localizer ....LOL. seriously though will these QE hold and when is it repercussions 2024?
Going at the current rate ($4-5T deficit a year) we’re hitting $40-50T by 2024
2%-3% interest rate (~current average interest on debt) on that is 10-15% gdp, really it's closer to negative or 0 due to 2-3% inflation.
If they don’t wanna pay that interest dollar will depreciate like 2-5% a year.
Lol imagine 9% interest on $50T of debt.
Sadly there will be lots of west worshipping chinese holders of US debt as well
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But seriously what are negative impact on massive stimulus?Oh no, it makes perfect sense. We always look out for number #1 which is ourselves, and we try to save our own ass.
People sounding the warning in China is just trying to look important to save their own job. If they are wrong, does not really matter because they were diligent in doing their job.
People in the west, cannot say they are losing. To say China is beating America, would be un-American. That is how comrade Chang has long life being perfectly wrong all the time. Comrade Chang has not been right even once, a perfect record. In the west, you must say what people want to hear in order to save your job.
What is going on in the west, is totally against Chinese tradition. In China, it is always about the righteous official in the folklore and official histories.
That is why I consider myself fresh off the boat. I will never understand this place.
Seriously, no one really knows.
But ... we can have an educated guess.
However, this time, just my opinion, a lot of contradictory evidence.
1) History shows that printing money leads to the debasement of the currency, that is exemplified by the wheel barrel full of money. If this is the key currency, usually that means the key currency will be replaced by another currency.
2) However, it appears we live in deflationary times. Do not expect inflation to be automatic. There is inflation in asset prices, but not much anywhere else.
3) The US debt is held in US dollars, so they can inflate their debt away. Whether that collapses their currency is a very curious question.
This part is unknown, that is what will other countries do? Remember the history of the Great Depression, it was all about competitive devaluations of a nation's currency, the beggar thy neighbour policy everyone did.
Suppose, the Americans start printing money more aggressively to pay down the debt, putting a lot of pressure on the USD to go down, like what President Trump wanted. How would the Euro and RMB react, what would the authorities behind the Euro and RMB do? Let the Americans devalue how much they want to devalue the USD, or they will act and let their Euro and RMB drop too?
This part, we really do not know. Logically, if all paper money becoming worthless, hard assets will go up and up and up, like gold. At any rate, everyone should own some gold in these times. Like that guy Jim Rogers said, he was a peasant and peasant like to own some gold. Hard assets would be real estate, or anything material they say.
That is the most important part. Protect yourself, save your own ass. No one will do it for you. A diversified portfolio of stocks and hard assets probably is the best way to go.
4) The next crisis is unpredictable. I really believe in chaos theory. 2008 and 2020 where just random events, where everything just happened just that way. However, in the history of financial crises, they tend to be spread out a little more, such as 10 years then 10 years another crisis. Next crisis could wipe out the US Dollar. Who knows, protect yourself.
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