2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

Will Iran-Israel conflict start again?

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ohan_qwe

Junior Member
Serb said:
That strategy feels overly idealistic. Consider this: why has Iran avoided targeting the primary oil fields and ports in the Gulf, despite them being well within range of its short-range missiles and even artillery? These regions also have significant Shia populations. The nightmare scenario is that Iran, using a mix of drone strikes and local proxies, moves to systematically cripple that energy infrastructure. You want to bet why both sides avoided oil infrastructure?
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US (and Canada) produce lots of oil.
US isn't on the best of terms with EU currently.

Crippeled oil infrastructure could be used as a reminder to EU to not bite the hand that feeds. I'm not convinced US is that hurt by it.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The an fps 132 radar gone in qatar. No more early warning for the patriot and arrow ,means from now on the an mpq 65 has to work in cintinous search mode.

Perfect for iranian anti radiation missiles. C band is easy to target. Shaheds has no issue to destroy them using wifi routers for targeting
 
D

Deleted member 27830

Guest
talonn said:
US/Israel are still betting on civil war within Iran to achieve their objective. Dont think they will deploy ground troops in near future as well

Anyway, Looking at the strikes from both sides, I wish Iran's missiles have more oomph. Yes, their missiles can reach targets, but the payload is so tame compared to US/Israel's
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I would argue the US objective is already complete. They set the region on fire and all they have to do now is sit back and watch one grind the other. Their destroyed infrastructure? That's pocket change to Gulf weirdos.

Add to that the fact that these Gulf states were never targeted like this before. This will get all of them onboard of the Abraham Accords and they will all sign multi-trillion dollar defense contracts with the US after all the dust has settled. On the other side, Russia looks like a joke for not delivering a single fighter jet despite Iran going above and beyond to help their war effort in Ukraine. This is a massive win for the West. People online may not easily notice these these facts. Heads of states will not overlook them.
 
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bsdnf

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
zyklon said:
From the perspective of DC and Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran is unnecessary if Iran is sufficiently weakened, if not rendered into a failed state. To get there, the US and Israel will need to destroy the Kharg Island oil terminal, and deny its reconstruction via follow-on strikes. They will also need to do the same to the Jask oil terminal — and perhaps smaller terminals like Lavan and Sirri too — to effectively destroy Iran's physical ability to export crude.

The oil industry generates roughly 1/4 of Iran's GDP, so there's going to be real and sustained pain if the country can't export crude — not even to Chinese buyers unafraid of Western sanctions — due to the destruction of requisite infrastructure.

Such a strategy will sustainably and thoroughly strangle the Iranian economy to the point where the Iranian state will struggle to make payroll for its civil servants and service members — never mind bankroll regional proxies — which will further degrade Iran's ability to be a consequential regional player, if not set the stage for regime change. Granted, periodic airstrikes will be required to ensure Tehran doesn't reconstitute its ballistic missile capabilities or develop nuclear weapons.

It's an absolutely vicious strategy and a lot of innocent Iranian civilians will suffer — if not literally starve — while refugee flows will burden — if not potentially destabilize — neighboring states like Turkey and Iraq. However, those are features, not bugs as far as Netanyahu and his cohorts are concerned.

The problem with destroying the Kharg and Jask terminals is that the Iranians will likely retaliate with missile and OWA drone strikes against the energy infrastructure of neighboring GCC sheikhdoms, which may very well trigger a global energy and economic crisis that will be felt at home by American voters and impact the upcoming US midterm elections.

So if the US and Israel are to move forward with destroying Iran's physical ability to export crude, they're going to need to sufficiently degrade Iran's offensive strike capabilities first, as well as effectively destroy the Iranian Navy so it can't blockade or threaten shipping transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Then Iran will attack the oil facilities of the Gulf states.

If I can't export oil, then you can't produce oil either.

And we just back to the 1970s.
 
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Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
ohan_qwe said:
US (and Canada) produce lots of oil.
US isn't on the best of terms with EU currently.

Crippeled oil infrastructure could be used as a reminder to EU to not bite the hand that feeds. I'm not convinced US is that hurt by it.
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1. The US and Canada's oil is owned by the corporate private oligarchs, not the US govt.

You are mistaking their neo-feudalistic countries for an efficient system like China's or Russia's.


2. The US is already suffering a massive hidden inflation problem. It's just underreported.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


3. Ok, let's imagine the US is not affected, but what would the Gulf States do? They could only collapse the petrodollar system, I guess.
 
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Parsley

New Member
Registered Member
Nautilus said:
How on earth is a country supposed to win a war if its highest leader WANTS to die in an enemy attack?? This is why theocracies always lose. They concern themselves more with matters of the afterlife than this world and are not able to act rationally.
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How exactly would his death change anything for the worse? From what we have seen, the population has only been more energized, and so has the military apparatus.
 
AlexYe

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nautilus said:
How on earth is a country supposed to win a war if its highest leader WANTS to die in an enemy attack?? This is why theocracies always lose. They concern themselves more with matters of the afterlife than this world and are not able to act rationally.
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He wasnt really a leader in that sense, he was more of a figurehead/spiritual figure. Khamenei is made some evil supervillain in western circles but in reality he hasnt been involved in anything big for years years, since the 2000's

PopularScience said:
I'm wondering where the EU should get its natural gas from now.
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Israel ofcourse

Man Israel is so vindictive and evil.
They killed years n years old ex-president too, israel is ensuring that iran doesnt even have 'fallback' leaders, they want to make it like libya next
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Chevalier

Chevalier

Major
Registered Member
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028082269194223673

ok we’re now beyond pre emptive strikes that Iran could’ve conducted as that horse has already bolted, now whilst Iran has targeted the GCC states, I believe Iran is forgetting Israel’s other ally to the nor5, Azerbaijan. who knows what sort of listening posts the Azeris would have installed to benefit Israel and since Iranian opening salvos are meant to blind the U.S. and Israel, why leave out the installations and bases in azerb?
 
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