2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[AlexYe]

Cant wait for the day when israel decide to backstab saudi. Damn Arabs are just pathetic

They dont to backstab them as long as they are subservient to them, look at jordan.

Khamenei’s death may be both less and more significant than what most people assesses, it could also offer a plausible explanation for both why the Israeli-American alpha strike was so lacklustre, and how the Iranian counter attacks were so swift and effective.

My hypothesis is that Khamenei concluded that a strike as inevitable, and chose to sacrifice himself to both blunt the effectiveness of the alpha strike, as well as to smooth the path of his chosen successor and give them massive popular support right across the ME.

Khamenei is an old man with not many years left, probably with a whole host of health issues and medical needs that comes with advanced age. When you are at that stage, survival stops becoming your overriding primary objective and you start to look to your legacy. I think Khamenei decided he would rather die a martyr in a literal blaze of glory than from illness or disease in some cave or be dragged out of a hole like a rat and killed by a mob.

It’s also plain to see that his judgement and choices have been catastrophically wrong in recent years that has cost Iran dearly, so there could also be an element of penance that would appear to his religious core.

If he had been struck in some literal cave or deep underground bunker, then that would have created more doubts about this theory. But to be hit in his main compound is what convinced me this was a deliberate sacrifice, as it would be literally too stupid otherwise to have such a meeting at such a place at such a time.

If you have made such a decision, then it opens up a lot of options previously unthinkable or impossible. The most obvious of which is to clear the deck of Iranian high command in a way even Khamenei could not do in life, as he is also subject to the realities of internal politics and faction power dynamics like every other ruler in history. There are limits to how many top people he could purge how quickly without risking all out civil war within Iran itself. But if he calls for a meeting of all the powerful figures within Iran who he would want to purge if he could do so without consequence, and let the Israelis and Americans know about the meeting, he can get his enemies to do his dirty work for him and Iran will come out of such a massive purge more United than ever before.

Such a move would not be beyond the imagination or even expectation of all the top players in Iran, so they would have been on guard for it. The only way to trick them into truly dropping their guard to be caught by such a move is by using Khamenei himself as assurance. That no one would be able to believe that anyone of their internal enemies would dare to put Khamenei himself at risk to get rid of little old me.

The way the meeting is leaked to Israel and America could also be used to confirm the loyalties of certain key individuals or prove their guilt if they then went and phoned home.

I think the reason the Israeli-American alpha strike was so limited was because they were probably a week or two from being fully ready, but the controlled leak of the Khamenei meeting was done to give them minimal reaction time, a truly now or never movement where they could either hit Khamenei and have little time for secondary targets, or risk missing the opportunity of a lifetime to take out what they thought was the entire Iranian senior leadership. And as expected, they took the bait and killed Khamenei and all the top leaders Khamenei wanted gone, while Khamenei true chosen successors were out in the field with missiles ready and targets all pre-planned out just waiting for news of the Israeli-American sneak attack to launch their own retaliations.

Agreed. And Iranian General pretty much said the same thing.

 

[zyklon]

Doubtful there will be any notable regime change without troop deployments on the ground. Israel doesn't have the means nor the people to do that (it would be hilarious to watch them try though) and the US is incredibly afraid of deploying ground forces in general.

They'll just bomb a couple more schools, then turn around, declaring themselves winners, Iran will re-arm and the whole thing repeats in the coming years. You have two parties unwilling, and in one case unable, to take decisive action in their favor. And you have another side that is unable to effectively deter the other two. So this cycle won't stop here unless either the US deploys the US Army for Desert Storm II or the Iranians finally do what they should have always done and acquire nuclear weapons for full deterrence.

From the perspective of DC and Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran is unnecessary if Iran is sufficiently weakened, if not rendered into a failed state. To get there, the US and Israel will need to destroy the Kharg Island oil terminal, and deny its reconstruction via follow-on strikes. They will also need to do the same to the Jask oil terminal — and perhaps smaller terminals like Lavan and Sirri too — to effectively destroy Iran's physical ability to export crude.

The oil industry generates roughly 1/4 of Iran's GDP, so there's going to be real and sustained pain if the country can't export crude — not even to Chinese buyers unafraid of Western sanctions — due to the destruction of requisite infrastructure.

Such a strategy will sustainably and thoroughly strangle the Iranian economy to the point where the Iranian state will struggle to make payroll for its civil servants and service members — never mind bankroll regional proxies — which will further degrade Iran's ability to be a consequential regional player, if not set the stage for regime change. Granted, periodic airstrikes will be required to ensure Tehran doesn't reconstitute its ballistic missile capabilities or develop nuclear weapons.

It's an absolutely vicious strategy and a lot of innocent Iranian civilians will suffer — if not literally starve — while refugee flows will burden — if not potentially destabilize — neighboring states like Turkey and Iraq. However, those are features, not bugs as far as Netanyahu and his cohorts are concerned.

The problem with destroying the Kharg and Jask terminals is that the Iranians will likely retaliate with missile and OWA drone strikes against the energy infrastructure of neighboring GCC sheikhdoms, which may very well trigger a global energy and economic crisis that will be felt at home by American voters and impact the upcoming US midterm elections.

So if the US and Israel are to move forward with destroying Iran's physical ability to export crude, they're going to need to sufficiently degrade Iran's offensive strike capabilities first, as well as effectively destroy the Iranian Navy so it can't blockade or threaten shipping transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[Nevermore]

According to the reports I’ve read from the US side, they carried out 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Israel carried out 500 strikes with over 200 aircraft, the largest air attack force Israel ever assembled against any country. In the same period, Iran fired 300 missiles.

If anything, it’s Iran’s response that was lackluster.

These two matters cannot be conflated. The reality is that despite enduring the most significant joint military assault in decades by the United States and Israel—two major military powers—the Iranian regime remains firmly in place and has mounted the swiftest counterattack within its capabilities.

 

[PopularScience]

From the perspective of DC and Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran is unnecessary if Iran is sufficiently weakened, if not rendered into a failed state. To get there, the US and Israel will need to destroy the Kharg Island oil terminal, and deny its reconstruction via follow-on strikes. They will also need to do the same to the Jask oil terminal — and perhaps smaller terminals like Lavan and Sirri too — to effectively destroy Iran's physical ability to export crude.

The oil industry generates roughly 1/4 of Iran's GDP, so there's going to be real pain if the country can't export crude — not even to Chinese buyers unafraid of Western sanctions — due to the destruction of requisite infrastructure.

Such a strategy will sustainably and thoroughly strangle the Iranian economy to the point where the Iranian state will struggle to make payroll for its civil servants and service members — never mind bankroll regional proxies — which will further degrade Iran's ability to be a consequential regional player, if not set the stage for regime change. Granted, periodic airstrikes will be required to ensure Tehran doesn't reconstitute its ballistic missile capabilities or develop nuclear weapons.

It's an absolutely vicious strategy and a lot of innocent Iranian civilians will suffer — if not literally starve — while refugee flows will burden — if not potentially destabilize — neighboring states like Turkey and Iraq. However, those are features, not bugs as far as Netanyahu and his cohorts are concerned.

However, the problem with destroying the Kharg and Jask terminals is that the Iranians will likely retaliate with missile and OWA drone strikes against the energy infrastructure of neighboring GCC sheikhdoms, which may very well trigger a global energy and economic crisis that will be felt at home by American voters and impact the upcoming US midterm elections.

So if the US and Israel are to move forward with destroying Iran's physical ability to export crude, they're going to need to sufficiently degrade Iran's offensive strike capabilities first, as well as effectively destroy the Iranian Navy so it can't blockade or threaten shipping transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

iran just need to block hormuz strait with uav.

 

[Chevalier]

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028091049898397786

mass casualty event in Israel, an entire city block was levelled, it appears the iron dome has decreased significantly in efficacy.

 

[plawolf]

According to the reports I’ve read from the US side, they carried out 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Israel carried out 500 strikes with over 200 aircraft, the largest air attack force Israel ever assembled against any country. In the same period, Iran fired 300 missiles.

If anything, it’s Iran’s response that was lackluster.

Note the 12 hour window.

The Americans and Israelis have been preparing their alpha strike for literally months. Of course it was going to be big, there was no way to change that.

But the opening strike, the first salvo. The most important and consequential strike was most certainly not a shock and awe level knockout blow. If you dial that 12h window back to just the first hour or two, I am certain the numbers would have been far less impressive, which is the entire point of Khamenei’s queen sacrifice move.

Iran was always going to have to allow America to throw the first punch. But this way, they turned a full nationwide tsunami strike into a focused precision strike at one compound. Secondary strikes would have been deliberately delayed as the Israelis and Americas could not have risked a massive attack wave involve all the targets they wanted to hit for fear that doing so would have tipped off Khamenei and allowed the meeting to evacuate before the missiles arrived.

The Khamenei meeting was the primary target, nothing else could be touched before that strike landed. They also couldn’t have huge strike waves airborne beforehand as that could also have risked alerting the Iranians.

If the Khamenei meeting was indeed a delicate Queen sacrifice, then Iranian forces would have been pre-issued with dispersal orders as soon as the meeting was struck, or maybe even before that such that much of the Israeli-American alpha strike could have been wasted hitting places where Iranian forces and equipment were rather than where they are.

 

[ansy1968]

iran just need to block hormuz strait with uav.

Bro no need, by attacking the GCC, the side effect is that Loyds just cancel their insurance, no ship owners dare sail the strait.

 

[Weaasel]

Iran needs that oil money. Iran needs parts and raw materials and parts covertly transfered by an oil tanker

Someone asked what is iran goal right now? Iran could be the liberators for the MidEast. They want US presences out of Mideast.

You have to understand the fundamental assymetry between the two sides. Iran lacks air power and it also lacks dominant air defences from the get go. What it possesses is missiles. And it has to also be calculating in its use of them so as not to deplete them. Additionally, their goal is survival and endurance first, rather than militarily defeating the aggressors. What it does posses is size and with that comes dispersal ability and the means of utilizing decoys and also ensuring that the enemy expends ammunition. There is only so much Israel can actually do to sustain its offensive at such a tempo. It does not have limitless ammunition, fuel, and other materiel resources. It seems as though Iran has multiple layers of command and control and take over responsibility redundancy as well, even though it must do a much better job in losing key leadership as just being able to survive fires over and over does not mean one should very frequently do so.

 

[Nautilus]

Man it isnt surprising that Khamenei wanted to die a martyr, being shia martyrdom is like the highest religious honour they can achieve especially via the hands of an enemy.
Kudos to Khamenei that didnt ran away like a coward like other leaders or like netanyahu.
But its unfortunate that he held a meeting with other senior leaders and they all died with him.
Atleast have the meeting at a secure place not just at his residence.

View attachment 170466

Yep.

Now it remains to be seen if the next leaders of Iran will continue to resist or will someone bend the knee, Iranian people are out in force mourning the death there is def a rally around the flag effect but who knows if they will even take off-ramp offer at this point.
Israel def must feel even more emboldened now.

How on earth is a country supposed to win a war if its highest leader WANTS to die in an enemy attack?? This is why theocracies always lose. They concern themselves more with matters of the afterlife than this world and are not able to act rationally.

 

[Serb]

From the perspective of DC and Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran is unnecessary if Iran is sufficiently weakened, if not rendered into a failed state. To get there, the US and Israel will need to destroy the Kharg Island oil terminal, and deny its reconstruction via follow-on strikes. They will also need to do the same to the Jask oil terminal — and perhaps smaller terminals like Lavan and Sirri too — to effectively destroy Iran's physical ability to export crude.

The oil industry generates roughly 1/4 of Iran's GDP, so there's going to be real and sustained pain if the country can't export crude — not even to Chinese buyers unafraid of Western sanctions — due to the destruction of requisite infrastructure.

Such a strategy will sustainably and thoroughly strangle the Iranian economy to the point where the Iranian state will struggle to make payroll for its civil servants and service members — never mind bankroll regional proxies — which will further degrade Iran's ability to be a consequential regional player, if not set the stage for regime change. Granted, periodic airstrikes will be required to ensure Tehran doesn't reconstitute its ballistic missile capabilities or develop nuclear weapons.

It's an absolutely vicious strategy and a lot of innocent Iranian civilians will suffer — if not literally starve — while refugee flows will burden — if not potentially destabilize — neighboring states like Turkey and Iraq. However, those are features, not bugs as far as Netanyahu and his cohorts are concerned.

The problem with destroying the Kharg and Jask terminals is that the Iranians will likely retaliate with missile and OWA drone strikes against the energy infrastructure of neighboring GCC sheikhdoms, which may very well trigger a global energy and economic crisis that will be felt at home by American voters and impact the upcoming US midterm elections.

So if the US and Israel are to move forward with destroying Iran's physical ability to export crude, they're going to need to sufficiently degrade Iran's offensive strike capabilities first, as well as effectively destroy the Iranian Navy so it can't blockade or threaten shipping transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

That strategy feels overly idealistic. Consider this: why has Iran avoided targeting the primary oil fields and ports in the Gulf, despite them being well within range of its short-range missiles and even artillery? These regions also have significant Shia populations. The nightmare scenario is that Iran, using a mix of drone strikes and local proxies, moves to systematically cripple that energy infrastructure. You want to bet why both sides avoided oil infrastructure nearly completely during both of these exchanges?

This is exactly why conventional westoid-zionist military success against Iran is so unlikely, unless we’re talking about a near-perfect, surgical decapitation strike. Otherwise, the math just doesn't work. As long as the regime remains operational and feels backed into a corner, they hold a massive trump card: the ability to permanently shutter Gulf oil production and economies for years. If they decide to play that hand, it wouldn’t just be a temporary supply dip; it would be a prolonged catastrophe for global energy markets, guaranteed to trigger hyper-inflation and huge economic chaos across the U.S. and beyond. It’s the ultimate ‘scorched earth’ deterrent.