2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

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abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
China is not a completely free market economy, so it will employ some policies to curb oil prices, but what he said is somewhat wishful thinking.
The economic models implemented by the United States and China are vastly different. I'm explaining to you the impact of the oil crisis on the United States, so these two are not necessarily in conflict.
China's oil industry is entirely comprised of state-owned enterprises, and China can even choose to supply oil domestically at a loss. For the United States, however, those oil giants will only seize the opportunity to profit even more.
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Newsflash, everyone knows about the 40-130 band in which oil is priced every 10 days by the NDRC.

The issue you're not understanding is that this is not a simple point of price.

If this ends in 2 weeks or 2 months then yes you're right, CNPC/Sinopec eats the losses and we move on.

But as I've said clearly the US does not need oil from the middle east regardless of what price it is. Yes it will suck to suck for people with long commutes but they will have gas at the pumps and life goes on. If shitty policies from the White House was enough to politically eliminate Trump boy do I have a laundry list of lunacy for the 25th Amendment.

Quick math is China imports about 5mln/d which required Hormuz, some of that can be offset via Yanbu (search it up if you don't know what this is) but net/net you are looking at a daily gap of about 4mln barrels. Chinese SPR is about 1.2bln barrels which gives us 300 days.

If you've read news or done research you'll know Japan has 200 days or so of SPR and Korea a lot less, which is why I used skeleton @ bottom of pool meme earlier. But my point is if this lasts til midterms the Chinese SPR will be pretty low - have you considered that this is what the 5D Chessmasters want? Draining the Chinese SPR that was for Taiwan scenario.

And as I also pointed out earlier, there are lots of obvious solutions on a 3-5 year time horizon, but the problem is a 6-12 month problem if this drags on.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
abenomics12345 said:
Newsflash, everyone knows about the 40-130 band in which oil is priced every 10 days by the NDRC.

The issue you're not understanding is that this is not a simple point of price.

If this ends in 2 weeks or 2 months then yes you're right, CNPC/Sinopec eats the losses and we move on.

But as I've said clearly the US does not need oil from the middle east regardless of what price it is. Yes it will suck to suck for people with long commutes but they will have gas at the pumps and life goes on. If shitty policies from the White House was enough to politically eliminate Trump boy do I have a laundry list of lunacy for the 25th Amendment.

Quick math is China imports about 5mln/d which required Hormuz, some of that can be offset via Yanbu (search it up if you don't know what this is) but net/net you are looking at a daily gap of about 4mln barrels. Chinese SPR is about 1.2bln barrels which gives us 300 days.

If you've read news or done research you'll know Japan has 200 days or so of SPR and Korea a lot less, which is why I used skeleton @ bottom of pool meme earlier. But my point is if this lasts til midterms the Chinese SPR will be pretty low - have you considered that this is what the 5D Chessmasters want? Draining the Chinese SPR that was for Taiwan scenario.

And as I also pointed out earlier, there are lots of obvious solutions on a 3-5 year time horizon, but the problem is a 6-12 month problem if this drags on.
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I've been blunt enough!
The rise in crude oil prices affects the entire global oil market. The US won't maintain domestic price stability just because it doesn't need Middle Eastern oil! American oil flows worldwide! These oil giants don't care about potential oil shortages in the US!
Crude oil affects more than just your driving costs; I've already explained the impact of petroleum products, you probably don't even bother to look at it!
To cope with rising oil prices, China can purchase crude oil internationally at market prices, control oil prices domestically through policy, ensure domestic economic stability, and levy a "crude oil surcharge" on exported products to subsidize losses from imported oil.

This process will certainly result in economic losses for China, but the inflationary pressure will be passed on to end consumers, unless the United States decides not to import Chinese industrial goods!
 
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A

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
abenomics12345 said:
If China acquiesces to this, what's to prevent Trump from recognizing Taiwan Independence? What's next?
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FriedRiceNSpice said:
Just adopt the millenia old strategy of paying off the barbarians until it becomes favorable to completely annihilate them. Sell US treasuries to pay the toll.
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Makes sense other than the risk I outlined above.

solarz said:
if this is true, why did US lift sanctions on both Russian and Iranian oil during the fighting?
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It cost the US nothing to settle out markets for a month or two - when Bessent did this they still thought they could wrap this up in a few weeks. These idiots are the people who believed they could reverse Kissinger Russia.

Puss in Boots said:
I've already explained the impact of petroleum products, you probably don't even bother to look at it!
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Are you familiar with how CF Industries takes 4 dollar natural gas (last I checked the US exports LNG) and makes Urea and sells it at 600 dollars/ton? Are you familiar with how LyondellBasell can take ethane (literally in oversupply in North America) to make polyethylene as opposed to naptha crackers in China/Asia?

Neither of these situations benefit China btw.

Puss in Boots said:
This process will certainly result in economic losses for China, but the inflationary pressure will be passed on to end consumers, unless the United States decides not to import Chinese industrial goods!
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I don't think you understand, the US underclass' struggles is the feature, not a bug, of the American capitalist system. LyondellBasell/CF Industries/Huntsman capitalists benefits from this.
 
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Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
abenomics12345 said:
Makes sense other than the risk I outlined above.



It cost the US nothing to settle out markets for a month or two - when Bessent did this they still thought they could wrap this up in a few weeks. These idiots are the people who believed they could reverse Kissinger Russia.



Are you familiar with how CF Industries takes 4 dollar natural gas (last I checked the US exports LNG) and makes Urea and sells it at 600 dollars/ton? Are you familiar with how LyondellBasell can take ethane (literally in oversupply in North America) to make polyethylene as opposed to naptha crackers in China/Asia?

Neither of these situations benefit China btw.
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The free market that the US champions would naturally sell goods to the highest bidder. The US wouldn't have cheap urea to produce food. As far as I know, rising fertilizer prices have already led many farms to abandon corn cultivation and switch to soybeans, which require less fertilizer!

What you've described is a scenario where US fossil fuel giants are making a fortune while ordinary people suffer from rising prices—this is completely consistent with what I've said.
 
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abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
already led many farms to abandon corn cultivation and switch to soybeans, which require less fertilizer!
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Your understanding is not accurate. The difference between corn and soybean is not that one requires less fertilizer, but that corn requires more Nitrogen whereas soybeans require more Potash (Guess where the big 3 producers are - Uralkali/Belaruskali and Nutrien).

FriedRiceNSpice said:
By shifting the area of conflict to East Asia, Trump would be giving up every possible advantage he currently enjoys. In the highly unlikely event that does happen (lack of alignment with anything Trump cares about), then Xi and the to CPC would have to make a call: now or wait.
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Well this is why I point out to @Puss in Boots that this isn't something you can brush aside - "Do Nothing Win" is over in the current construct. I agree that it is inconsistent with what Trump cares about, but what he cares about changes every 2 minutes.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
abenomics12345 said:
Your understanding is not accurate. The difference between corn and soybean is not that one requires less fertilizer, but that corn requires more Nitrogen whereas soybeans require more Potash (Guess where the big 3 producers are - Uralkali/Belaruskali and Nutrien).
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You've gone off-topic again! Soybeans cannot replace all the functions of corn, which will lead to price increases for other corn products as well, ultimately borne by consumers!

In short, the oil crisis will cause price increases for all commodities worldwide to varying degrees! The US won't escape these effects just because it doesn't need Middle Eastern oil!

If you think the US economy can currently withstand such an impact, then I have nothing more to say.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Brigadier
Registered Member
Rare earths embargo; it's the magic button. Trump chimps out in the Middle East? Rare earths embargo. Congress tightens export control laws? Rare earths embargo. Xi wakes up with a toothache? Rare earths embargo. Instability in Earth's magnetosphere? Rare earths embargo.
 
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