2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
I think Iran maybe lost more tactically. But they have won a great victory strategically.

Iran's revolutionary govt has been vindicated for chanting death to America and israel for the last 50 years. They have shown US and Israel are the existential enemy of Iran.

The fact Iran suffered all these sanctions for so many years and still kept going with its nuke, missile and independent arms program is vindicated.

Pretty much all opposition to IRGC has been silent, public support restored.

Iran got a handle on all the mossad agents inside their country. I am sure they will slowly root out most of them.

Finally, they now have clear justification to go for nuclear weapons and the world will not able to oppose it.

Tactically, I said before, if Iran can hit 1 target for every 10 israel hits, it's still a victory. Cause Iran has strategic depth and they already don't have much economically. But for Israel, every hit is a blow to the dual citizens confidence to stay in Israel. Many will leave. That's a death blow for Israel.
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How is this a great Iranian strategic victory?

Within the past year, they:

-Saw Hezbollah defanged, to the point that they haven't intervened on Iran's behalf during the current Israel-Iran war;
-Saw Assad fall and Syria transition to a Turkish- and Saudi-aligned Sunni regime;
-Saw Israel and then the U.S. operate successfully in their own airspace and destroy their nuclear installations.

If that's what winning looks like, I'd hate to see them losing.
 
bsdnf

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
The next moves of event is clear. Just like last time, both sides pretended to be tough on each other, may be another round of exchange (performance), but eventually "reluctantly" and "considering the bigger picture" let the GCC countries pass on the message for negotiations, and in the deliberately lengthy negotiations, the public gradually forgot about this matter.

Israel will certainly express its dissatisfaction, otherwise Bibi will not be able to explain himself to the domestic public. But Trump will threaten them just like Biden did, last time with JDAM, this time with anti-air missiles. After all, the bombing of B-2 has made Iran's nuclear program "fail", no matter what the truth is, it gives Israelis an excuse to accept and console themselves, for now.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
SinoAmericanCW said:
How is this a great Iranian strategic victory?

Within the past year, they:

-Saw Hezbollah defanged, to the point that they haven't intervened on Iran's behalf during the current Israel-Iran war;
-Saw Assad fall and Syria transition to a Turkish- and Saudi-aligned Sunni regime;
-Saw Israel and then the U.S. operate successfully in their own airspace and destroy their nuclear installations.

If that's what winning looks like, I'd hate to see them losing.
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They could always get millions of their citizens displaced, captured or killed, 25% of their territory permanently captured, get their entire navy sunk, lose most of their coastline except a small sliver, have 100s of glide bombs and cruise missiles hitting them every day and lose 30% of their GDP.

That's much worse, no?
 
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SinoAmericanCW

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
They could always get millions of their citizens displaced, captured or killed, 25% of their territory permanently captured, get their entire navy sunk, lose most of their coastline except a small sliver, have 100s of glide bombs and cruise missiles hitting them every day and lose 30% of their GDP.

That's much worse, no?
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That's much worse, sure, but barring incredible Iranian miscaculation / escalation, it's never been in the cards.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
SinoAmericanCW said:
How is this a great Iranian strategic victory?

Within the past year, they:

-Saw Hezbollah defanged, to the point that they haven't intervened on Iran's behalf during the current Israel-Iran war;
-Saw Assad fall and Syria transition to a Turkish- and Saudi-aligned Sunni regime;
-Saw Israel and then the U.S. operate successfully in their own airspace and destroy their nuclear installations.

If that's what winning looks like, I'd hate to see them losing.
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Hezbollah and Hamas both remain, plenty of israeli settlers have left. If this is a war of degrading israel and making it a hell to live, they are achieving results. Plenty have left, more are leaving now after Iran's missiles.

There was never a doubt that Israel with the entire west backing it will always have military victories. The whole point of hezbollah and Hamas is to "resist" israel, make them suffer and force them to eventually leave.

As long as opposition to israel exists, they will again regain strength and there will be another round 5-10 years from now.

Iran's strategic goal cannot be let's support as many militia forces around israel and only use them if israel attacks us. Nope, the goal is to constantly put israel under pressure.

As far as Syria is concerned, yes, that was a loss for Iran. But I am not sure giving an Islamic al qaeda govt power in Syria is good for israel or US, I feel like jolani is just acting as pro-israel to gain strength, once the time comes, it will be another taliban.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
As the situation looks like the Israel radards and IADS degrated to the level when the doritos flying uninterrupted.
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It means that slowl the night in Tel-Aviv will be bit tense, with lawn mower doritos flying and keeping everyone awake in the bunkers.

Iran should be capable to make 50 doritos a day, and if they need the Russians can top up them, and after finishing the Ukrainan business the number can go up to few hundred a day.
 
obj 705A

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng said:
Iran should be capable to make 50 doritos a day, and if they need the Russians can top up them, and after finishing the Ukrainan business the number can go up to few hundred a day.
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Israel has air supremacy over Iranian airspace. bombers are flying willy nilly over Iranian airspace. I'm pretty sure Iran's drone and missile factories have been significantly degraded if not completely destroyed at this point. so this 50 drone per day figure is probably at best 5 or 10 drones a day that they can produce under this constant bombing.

Russia will not supply Iran with offensive weaponry. especially after how Iran essentialy commited an act of war against Arab gulf countries. after the foolish Iranian strike on Qatar Iran can kiss any chance of offensive Russian weaponry goodby. Russia will not risk having it's weapons striking GCC land harming it's relations with the GCC.
the best thing Iran could hope to get from Russia are defensive weaponry like the S-400 or something since such weapons would pose no threat to the GCC.
 
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