2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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Mmmeeeto

Junior Member
Registered Member
—❗️// BREAKING: Preliminary reports of three oil tankers being struck in the Gulf of Oman

NASA detects three fires in the Gulf of Oman

@Middle_East_Spectator

Show down in strait of hormuz??
 
I

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Perhaps Iranian strategy is exhaust IDF by using numerous small missile salvos before launching large scale attacks.
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IMO Israel is trying to hit Iranian launchers before they launch, Iran is a big place and it takes an hour just to fly up and down the western border, not to mention the time and refuelling need to even get there. Sortie generation at this distance is very difficult, having to cover a large area all day (as opposed to concentrate force just before launch) severely limits the number of aircraft you can deploy.

So firing a small number of missiles every once a while forces Israel to both temporally and spatially spread out their sorties, which both makes it easier for when Iran does want to attack, and make it harder for Israel to actually launch attacks against other Iranian targets.
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
With all the indications about a possible US intervention, Iran is probably conserving missiles for a big strike on Israel and regional US forces in response. It would look much better if massive damage to Tel Aviv could be blamed on the US attacks on Iran.

Firing small waves is still enough to get the settlers to run into shelters and stop them from getting sleep at night
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Randomuser said:
Now that Iran is sort of used to how Israel does stuff, the fear and shock from it is no longer there.

The real worrying concern is if the US gets involved directly now. I think it's pretty hard for Iran to find a way out of that one.
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Iran's biggest move would be waiting for the best time (when as many forces are concentrated in the Gulf as possible) to close the Straits of Hormuz through mining and striking all hostile naval ships and bases inside the constrained Gulf from short range with ASMs, attack boats, mini-subs and USVs.

This would inflict immediate damage and provoke a ground war. They need to have the will to fight to the end though and accept that they will become a war torn nation for 10+ years no matter what at this point. No more Instagram, parties, etc, only fighting for survival. The outcome is remaining independent and reestablishing deterrence. The alternative would be becoming an even worse shithole being run by ISIS or the kings again, while inflicting 0 damage and becoming a global laughing stock.

Iraq only recovered the nominal GDP per capita of Saddam era Iraq in the 1980's, in 2017, so Iranians have that to look forward to if they surrender. Saddam thought he could negotiate too.
 
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