2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also seems safe to assume the NPT and the general non-proliferation framework is dead and buried while the IAEA
Well Trump said Iran will never do nuclear anymore, all their bases and stuff is dead. So... if everything nuclear is gone they dont need to be on NPT and IAEA do they... Also on that note, shouldnt the sanctions be taken off too?? :D

 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
He does sound genuinely mad, He REALLY wants that noble peace prize too

6 months is too soon, more like 2 years.
They were flying in supplies from all over nato countries, thats how low they were running, US MIC cant restock those that fast, they arent designed for that stuff anymore. It will take them a while and next time they would want even more AD missile supplies at israel bases from the start. Bibi's window is probably till trump's term, Iran has that much time to learn and fix their mistakes for round 2,
Between Minsk and Syria, the west has repeatdly made it abundantly clear they see all agreements as tools to regroup and restart their agression, its the nature of barbarian culture that the only language they understand is pain and that culture can never be fixed so long as they exist.

This means there wont be 2 years, there might not even be 2 weeks, the clock is already ticking to the next attack and theres zero room for complacency.

Next time Israel will focus on destroying Iran's missiles which humiliated them so much in the opening attack, they will try extra hard to infiltrate every base, try to install their guys at every level of command to sabatoge bases from the inside. They willl try to develop new tools and equipment to detect and destroy launchers faster, you can bet at this very moment Plantir is pitching some sort of AI tool that'll do so.

Iran cant count on the same strategy to work as well next time and need to immediately start preparing for those new measures, starting with full cleanse of their communications networks and install much better internal survelance technology. Fortunately Iran is friendly with the world leader in this, one country alone in the world not Israel cant effectly infiltrate, but they have to make an effort diplomatically and internally to ensure its proper installation and operation.

Bottom line is believing you have 2 years is extremly dangerous given the nature of their enemy.
 

sangye

Junior Member
Registered Member
Can anyone tell me what was the actual outcome of Operation Midnight Hammer? I don't really know where to find unbiased facts regarding losses for either side.
 

CrazyHorse

Junior Member
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Can anyone tell me what was the actual outcome of Operation Midnight Hammer? I don't really know where to find unbiased facts regarding losses for either side.
We don’t know for sure, but the damage was likely only enough to seal the entrances, the mountain rock is too thick for those bunker busters to reach the core of the facility. Either way, Iran moved whatever they needed out of the facility days prior. Lots of work is needed to get the facility back up and running I’m sure, but it’ll enjoy more support with the Iranian people becoming more supportive of a nuclear program.
 

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Well Trump said Iran will never do nuclear anymore, all their bases and stuff is dead. So... if everything nuclear is gone they dont need to be on NPT and IAEA do they... Also on that note, shouldnt the sanctions be taken off too?? :D

Iran is a much stronger and tougher fighter than those Arab states who quit at the moment of adversity. That's why Israeli tactics couldn't knock it out.

But they seriously need a revamp at the top level. Their approach is not working well and needs to change while they still can.
 

AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bottom line is believing you have 2 years is extremly dangerous given the nature of their enemy.
No no I dont mean Iran should operate on that assumption, but we can because US industry cant resupply that fast.

Can anyone tell me what was the actual outcome of Operation Midnight Hammer? I don't really know where to find unbiased facts regarding losses for either side.
The outcome was it gave US an 'exit'
They told them they were coming,
1750777051586.png
48 hours before attacks, Sat image shows tons of trucks outside all facilities, then bombs didnt really penetrate that deep esp because ...
1750777097798.png
Fordow is DEEEEP, but it allowed US to say 'all nuclear stuff is dead' PEACE HAS ACHIEVED, mission accomplished.
Meanwhile they dont know where the enriched uranian went etc...
 

BlackWindMnt

Major
Registered Member
No no I dont mean Iran should operate on that assumption, but we can because US industry cant resupply that fast.


The outcome was it gave US an 'exit'
They told them they were coming,
View attachment 155081
48 hours before attacks, Sat image shows tons of trucks outside all facilities, then bombs didnt really penetrate that deep esp because ...
View attachment 155082
Fordow is DEEEEP, but it allowed US to say 'all nuclear stuff is dead' PEACE HAS ACHIEVED, mission accomplished.
Meanwhile they dont know where the enriched uranian went etc...
Gonna bet Trump told them no nuke test under my presidency.
Go test your Nuke post 2028.

Should be interesting to follow what Iran will do with the Time given by the cease fire and stuff.
 

xyz4321

Junior Member
Registered Member
He does sound genuinely mad, He REALLY wants that noble peace prize too

6 months is too soon, more like 2 years.
They were flying in supplies from all over nato countries, thats how low they were running, US MIC cant restock those that fast, they arent designed for that stuff anymore. It will take them a while and next time they would want even more AD missile supplies at israel bases from the start. Bibi's window is probably till trump's term, Iran has that much time to learn and fix their mistakes for round 2,
Actually, NATO, especially US and UK can supply quite a bit. They had done so during the Gaza Genocide. Israel used up all the stockpiles on Gaza, going building by building. NATO C-130's, A-400M's, and C-17A's were doing near a dozen daily flights to Israel for more than a year. What Israel spent on Iran is probably not even 5% of that spent on Gaza.

Iran, however, should be extremely cautious about a ceasefire involving Israel because the latter has used such moments in Gaza numerous times to rearm, regroup, and restart the fighting by breaking the truce.

There is also no way Iran can have a larger air force than the US and its allies. Not financially possible. Even China is hard pressed to achieve this.

Would you rather have a single Su-57 fighter for 50 million USD or a hundred Emad rockets for 500 thousand each? Plus unlike the aircraft they can produce the Emad themselves.
They could have both. Iran is much more wealthier than Pakistan who invested both in missiles and air force. Don't have to be exactly equivalent to Israel but atleast have some capable of a bit of defense or specific roles. Once upon a time, Syria ordered a small batch of the Mig-31 to use it's radar as mini-AWACS. Small, precise roles like these can change the battlefield dynamics.
 

NorthKimBestKim

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Still wonder (and don't understand) why Erbil's pro-Israel area of control in Northern Iraq (Phull sappart saar) hasn't been targeted heavily by Iran, and even attacked from the land to create a small buffer zone. Erbil was the one who declared ready to "invade" Iran by land and the whole Kurdish-controlled belt in Iraq and Syria is a problem. I doubt Baghdad would have anything against Iran pounding pro-Erbil "forces". Same goes for the SDF in Syria. Should have been targeted more. I doubt Erdogan would mind that either.

I remember back in 2017 when Baghdad had to woop Erbil big time and Baghdad took back control of city of Kirkuk. I mean if Baghdad can do that within 12 days (back in 2017), Iran should have created a small buffer east of Erbil / Sulemaniyah.
 
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AlexYe

Junior Member
Registered Member
Gonna bet Trump told them no nuke test under my presidency.
Go test your Nuke post 2028.

Should be interesting to follow what Iran will do with the Time given by the cease fire and stuff.
Welll.....if they are smart they will develop it in secret, proper secret and on the day of the inauguration of the next president they do the test and show the world.

What Israel spent on Iran is probably not even 5% of that spent on Gaza.
Yeah but gaza was slower, There was no real resistance/need to use big expensive interceptors, gaza cant find back, and it was spread over longer period of time, over 20? months now.

Meanwhile Cost estimates for just israel AD was $285+ million a day, combined with plane/navy, us/uk +nato support it was $1 billion a day.
Nato needs those supplies for themselves because of russia factor from their pov too. Iran depleted/damaged them more in 12 days than gaza or anyone else could in 2 years.
Also keep in mind there are rare-earth shenanigans going on too, with lesser and lesser supplies and more and more hungry mouths for it.
Iran, however, should be extremely cautious about a ceasefire involving Israel because the latter has used such moments in Gaza numerous times to rearm, regroup, and restart the fighting by breaking the truce.
Oh yeah agreed, I think both sides will occasionally lob bomb/missile at each other without 'crossing' the threshold for a longer conflict these upcoming months.
 
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