09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Neurosmith]

Curious to see if they will be producing the 09V alongside the 09IIIB or have the former replace the latter right away.

Also, this Sino-Seawolf has some outsized rudders compared to other submarines of its class.

 

[Blitzo]

Curious to see if they will be producing the 09V alongside the 09IIIB or have the former replace the latter right away.

Also, this Sino-Seawolf has some outsized rudders compared to other submarines of its class.

We've already had fairly credible rumors that there will be additional 09IIIBs procured, so there is a good chance there will be concurrent construction of both types for at least a little while.

That makes sense, given 09V as a clean sheet new class will inevitably have a degree of greater risk and the PLAN will still want to have new SSNs commissioned with an ongoing basis rather than replacing 09IIIB wholesale.

 

[Neurosmith]

We've already had fairly credible rumors that there will be additional 09IIIBs procured, so there is a good chance there will be concurrent construction of both types for at least a little while.

That makes sense, given 09V as a clean sheet new class will inevitably have a degree of greater risk and the PLAN will still want to have new SSNs commissioned with an ongoing basis rather than replacing 09IIIB wholesale.

They'll almost certainly be building both for a while, but the ultimate question is whether the 09V will take on a different role or occupy an entirely different cost/complexity strata - and hence require concurrent production (like the 055 vis-a-vis the 052D) - or be an eventual replacement for the 09IIIB (like 052D vis-a-vis 052C), even though both models are likely to be produced simultaneously in the beginning.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

They'll almost certainly be building both for a while, but the ultimate question is whether the 09V will take on a different role or occupy an entirely different cost/complexity strata - and hence require concurrent production (like the 055 vis-a-vis the 052D) - or be an eventual replacement for the 09IIIB (like 052D vis-a-vis 052C), even though both models are likely to be produced simultaneously in the beginning.

I think SSNs overall will start to replace PLANs SSK fleet as China overall moves towards blue water navy. As China gets stronger and starts to break out of first island chain, they have less need for SSKs. I don't think PLA will maintain 40-50 SSKs anymore. They will likely go for 50+ SSNs and 10-20 SSKs for overall balance, essentially flipping current composition.

 

[Blitzo]

They'll almost certainly be building both for a while, but the ultimate question is whether the 09V will take on a different role or occupy an entirely different cost/complexity strata - and hence require concurrent production (like the 055 vis-a-vis the 052D) - or be an eventual replacement for the 09IIIB (like 052D vis-a-vis 052C), even though both models are likely to be produced simultaneously in the beginning.

Well, your previous post did ask about whether 09V would be produced alongside 09IIIB or if it would be replaced "right away," so it didn't seem like that much of a certainty in that post?


As far as role goes, I'm somewhat less sure but based on the degree of technological qualitative improvement even independent of their hull size (which has bearing on role in a manner of say deep water vs more balanced/littoral options), I have a feeling that their roles themselves are going to be theoretically different but may still have 09V replace 09IIIB eventually in practice (or putting it another, both may serve the "same role").

IMO the true bigger question is whether 09IIIB will be succeeded by say, a smaller diameter (10m esque) new SSN (which is more economical, lower performing, but similar technologically) to complement the 12.Xm 09V -- or if PLAN will be bold enough to eventually go all in on 09V family once 09IIIB finishes production.

 

[Aspide]

Production of 09IIIB may continue until all earlier versions of 09III are replaced.
Initial batch of 09V may comprise just two boats followed by evaluation period, another reason for keeping the yard busy with more 09IIIB.

 

[antiterror13]

If the 092 and 094 SSBNs are stretched versions of their SSN counterparts, then the SSBNs are really reusing most of the existing SSN design, rather than the SSBN being designed around the payload.

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Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Chinese SSBNs because I think that even if they are quieter than ocean background noise levels, they are still too vulnerable.

China doesn't have suitable bastion areas like Russia.
Nor does China have unrestricted access to a vast "friendly" ocean for the SSBN to hide, unlike the USA, France or UK.

So I think China should concentrate on land-based ICBMs over SLBMs.

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Maybe they build another 4-6 SSBNs. But that will be far fewer than the number of SSNs we can expect.
So it is just easier to reuse the existing SSN design as much as possible.

NB. That assumes they don't have a new larger SSBN/SSGN design (20,000+ tonnes?) which has the numbers required to justify a new class.

I think the strategy of Chinese SSBN/SLBM has been to operate it within chinese territorial or in FIC, not in open ocean. JL-2, JL-3 and the next JL-4 can reach all CONUS from there.

With 096, the strategy may stretch further to Second Island Chain, but probably not necessary. Unlike UK and France that rely 100% on SSBN/SLBM, China also have massive silos and road mobile ICBM like Russia. USA has silos but not mobile ICBM

I think Chinese strategy is correct, go with all of them, but Chinese defense spending may have to increase in regard to % of GDP. I feel it will reach 2% in a few years and will peak to 2.5 to 3%

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
how long will it take for a new submarine like 095 to be operational fully to sail for longer
journeys & will it accompany new ACC or sail alone.
thank you

 

[antiterror13]

I think SSNs overall will start to replace PLANs SSK fleet as China overall moves towards blue water navy. As China gets stronger and starts to break out of first island chain, they have less need for SSKs. I don't think PLA will maintain 40-50 SSKs anymore. They will likely go for 50+ SSNs and 10-20 SSKs for overall balance, essentially flipping current composition.

Didn't you just say in your previous post 1682 that the sub is no longer important? did you change your mind?

 

[mister unknown]

With regards to an earlier comment about replacing SSKs, I think SSKs will still have a place in the PLAN for the shallow waters of the East China Sea & the 1st island chain in general, where the geography naturally favors SSKs, & near home where range & endurance is relatively less important, we could deploy relatively cheap & numerous SSKs in this area & let the SSNs do what they do best - long range deep ocean patrols on the 2nd island chain & beyond.