09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Maikeru]

Looking at the latest Google imagery of Huludao, we can see lots of parts just North of the Eastern (new) launching dry dock, and also North of the Western (old) launching dry dock. And there's also this, which I hadn't noticed before:

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So it seems the yard is very busy indeed, but in that case we appear to be seeing fewer launches than the parts would justify? Perhaps 2026 will be a bumper year!

 

[sunnymaxi]

Looking at the latest Google imagery of Huludao, we can see lots of parts just North of the Eastern (new) launching dry dock, and also North of the Western (old) launching dry dock. And there's also this, which I hadn't noticed before:

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so a new launch ?

 

[Maikeru]

so a new launch ?

No, just another load of parts I hadn't noticed before. There appear to be 3 storage areas and the old Western side of the facility still very much in use for sub construction. Also notable are the cars outside the Southern new final assembly building, which doesn't appear to have been used much yet - perhaps they're still fitting out. Also the new large buildings at the Southern end of the Eastern facility, at least 2 of which appear to be construction halls, but for what I don't know.

 

[iewgnem]

Looking at the latest Google imagery of Huludao, we can see lots of parts just North of the Eastern (new) launching dry dock, and also North of the Western (old) launching dry dock. And there's also this, which I hadn't noticed before:

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So it seems the yard is very busy indeed, but in that case we appear to be seeing fewer launches than the parts would justify? Perhaps 2026 will be a bumper year!

I don't think it ever made sense to evaluate # of SSN launches using commercial sat images.

The only confirmed data is:
- There are 20 construction bays at Huludao, 12 of which finished in 2018, and the other 8 finished by 2021
- The yard is still being expanded as of now
- There are a lot of SSN parts

In order to believe China launched only 2 subs this year, its necessary to believe the yard is being expanded while sitting empty, or that SSNs take 6+ year to build so that boats started in 2019 only completed now.

In order to believe China launched more than 2 subs this year, you only need to assume launches could happen without being observed by commercial satellites.

 

[AndrewS]

I don't think it ever made sense to evaluate # of SSN launches using commercial sat images.

The only confirmed data is:
- There are 20 construction bays at Huludao, 12 of which finished in 2018, and the other 8 finished by 2021
- The yard is still being expanded as of now
- There are a lot of SSN parts

In order to believe China launched only 2 subs this year, its necessary to believe the yard is being expanded while sitting empty, or that SSNs take 6+ year to build so that boats started in 2019 only completed now.

In order to believe China launched more than 2 subs this year, you only need to assume launches could happen without being observed by commercial satellites.

What shipyard expansion is happening at Huludao?

 

[iewgnem]

What shipyard expansion is happening at Huludao?

09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

 

[AndrewS]

I don't think it ever made sense to evaluate # of SSN launches using commercial sat images.

The only confirmed data is:
- There are 20 construction bays at Huludao, 12 of which finished in 2018, and the other 8 finished by 2021
- The yard is still being expanded as of now
- There are a lot of SSN parts

In order to believe China launched only 2 subs this year, its necessary to believe the yard is being expanded while sitting empty, or that SSNs take 6+ year to build so that boats started in 2019 only completed now.

In order to believe China launched more than 2 subs this year, you only need to assume launches could happen without being observed by commercial satellites.

Ok.

So it's looks like additional buildings for components and modules.

2 submarines per year would make sense if the bottleneck is components and modules.

So it would mean the assembly buildings are still largely empty, assuming a 9 month module assembly time.

 

[para80]

We dont quite know whats happening in those halls. I would assume that there is some other construction activity going on beside pushing out two 09IIIB per year. There's also the fact that US officials hinted at renewed Type 09IV construction. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a Type 09IV variant sharing some of the traits of the 09IIIB (notably the pumpjet) appearing in the not too distant future. But speculative.

 

[Maikeru]

Summary of rumours and speculation:

• Over on CDF someone is positing 10 093Bs launched to date (also 039C production stopped at 6 boats pending introduction of 041 - 1 launched to date).
• Chinese Wiki PLAN ship list also lists 10 093Bs launched to date.
• We had (from POP3/Patch?) claim that 14FYP included 8 x 093B, 2 x 094B and 1 x 095.
• Subsequently there was a claim a further 8 093B ordered in 2nd batch.
• A poster here claimed to have seen something 096 sized in the Eastern hall in SAR imagery.

Personally I think if an 096 is indeed so far along then there's little merit in building 094Bs.

 

[ismellcopium]

Summary of rumours and speculation:

• Over on CDF someone is positing 10 093Bs launched to date (also 039C production stopped at 6 boats pending introduction of 041 - 1 launched to date).
• Chinese Wiki PLAN ship list also lists 10 093Bs launched to date.
• We had (from POP3/Patch?) claim that 14FYP included 8 x 093B, 2 x 094B and 1 x 095.
• Subsequently there was a claim a further 8 093B ordered in 2nd batch.
• A poster here claimed to have seen something 096 sized in the Eastern hall in SAR imagery.

Personally I think if an 096 is indeed so far along then there's little merit in building 094Bs.

Xinhui's post you mean?

The rumours from those 2 were from quite a while ago, it's entirely possible 096 went smoother than expected & plans were revised.