More likely that there will be a third 052D yard than three 055 yards. Let's wait and see.
055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
Depends on the numbers they plan to induct.
It could be that the PLAN decides that it wants to mass produce the 055 rather than the 052D.
Considering that the sensors, weapons and other electronics takes up the lion share of the cost of a ship, with the actual hull accounting for a fairly small percentage of the total price, so the cost of an 055 might not be that much more than an 052D. In which case, the PLAN may well decide it wants to spend a little bit more to get a whole lot more ship and capability, not to mention future growth potential.
It could be that the PLAN decides that it wants to mass produce the 055 rather than the 052D.
Considering that the sensors, weapons and other electronics takes up the lion share of the cost of a ship, with the actual hull accounting for a fairly small percentage of the total price, so the cost of an 055 might not be that much more than an 052D. In which case, the PLAN may well decide it wants to spend a little bit more to get a whole lot more ship and capability, not to mention future growth potential.
lcloo
Captain
He has been talking about 001A's construction date for many years before the ship's appearance in Dalian and he has been right on the dates and general specs. I would say he is one of very few highly credible big shrimp on par with pop3.
I'm 100% sure that's PLAN PR officer (not necessarily one but there could be a couple of people who are responsible for that) or whatever post it corresponds to in it's structures. We all see here controlled leakage of informations so that there aren't other navy enthusiast who would try to take pictures on their own and publish them in the web. He would be behind the bars long time ago for doing that. Simply PLAN does't work on Eastern countries navies transparency level so they go this way communicating with naval enthusiasts in China.
I think it's more likely that fgfzy and pop3 and others are somewhat involved in the industry or military, and that the military tolerates and allows their occasional revelation of new tidbits of information... which is different to the idea that the military would deliberately create accounts on the likes of cjdby and fyjs to deliberately leak new info.
One major reason I doubt these accounts are created by the military, is because the kind of information revealed by these big shrimps are often relatively technical in nature (such as the specs of a ship or aircraft) or organisational (such as how many may be built or where they may be built)... and I see no reason why the military may be driven to deliberately reveal such information.
As for navy enthusiasts -- there are actually quite a variety of naval enthusiasts who take pictures of various shipyards, and they know the line to not cross when posting new pictures, they also know to deliberately doctor pictures of new ships when they come out so as to avoid being prosecuted for revealing state secrets. I sincerely doubt that many of the photos we get of new ships (or aircraft) taken at various locations and shipyards are actually done by military personnel, but rather by private enthusiasts whose activities are tolerated to a degree.
So I'd argue that based on years of observation of the Chinese military, the insiders who provide information to us and the wallclimbers who take photos for us are probably tolerated and allowed to do their stuff so long as they do not cross certain unspoken lines in revealing state secrets... and that degree of tolerance is a good indicator for the Chinese military's own style of transparency. But I strongly doubt that the military is trying to use online forums as a means of "compensating" for its relative official lack of transparency... if they really wanted to do so, they could simply reveal that information via official means.
I could see the Navy producing both 055 and 052D in relatively large numbers... though I am still very surprised at the idea that they would consider building 055 at a third shipyard.
I also wonder what that means for future frigate production at HP.
Also, I do think 055 will cost quite a bit more than 052D, because it likely will field more and newer sensors and electronics, and of course more weapons (such as more VLS) as well, all on a newer hull. That isn't to say the Navy won't potentially build a large number of 055s of course, because in the future they may be able to afford a large number of 055s and the capability they bring.
joshuatree
Captain
If 052Ds and 055s go into large serial production, is there even a need for a next gen frigate? A next gen frigate is supposedly higher in displacement which means it would be closer to 052D size anyways.
Personally, I think that there should always be a blue water capable frigate class in the Chinese Navy -- a ship which is slightly smaller and less well armed than a current generation destroyer of its equivalent generation. Such a frigate should be built in significant numbers to take up lower intensity missions independently and to conduct escort duties for convoys, slower replenishment ships, and to contribute to the AAW and ASW picket especially for large task groups.
ASW especially is a mission where risking a frigate is far more sensible than risking a large destroyer like 055 or even a destroyer like 052D, given the smaller size, less weapons, less crew and of course lower cost of a frigate makes it more sensible to risk versus an undersea opponent which can be anything from a billion dollar SSN to a cheap small mini SSK. A frigate would likely be less well armed but equally well equipped with ASW sensors vis a vis destroyers, thus its crew also have more time to specialize and train in ASW missions compared to destroyers, which may be equally well equipped with ASW sensors but a destroyer also has a variety of other more capable weapons and sensors such as anti air warfare and anti surface warfare where attention and training must also be placed, potentially giving them less time to train in the ASW role compared to a frigate.
Overall, I expect the Chinese Navy to still pursue a new generation frigate successor to the 054A class and that such a class would be built in large numbers alongside relatively large numbers of 052Ds and 055s.
Of course the linchpin of my belief rests on certain assumptions of the future size of the Chinese Navy. I believe the new generation frigate will be built in numbers equal to 052Ds or 055s, at least. Therefore, if a large number of 052Ds are built (12 expected but rumoured up to 24) and if a large number of 055s are also built (4-8 expected, but a few rumours have put it up to a whopping 24 -- take it well salted), then I expect a similar number of new generation frigates (anywhere from 12 to 24) to be built.
Needless to say, 24 frigates could be built and possibly even inducted and commissioned by the Navy effectively within a decades time when one looks like 054A's construction rate (if construction of the new frigate begins within a year or two), and by that time the current 24 054As will still be in service as they will still be very young.
Therefore, how big will the Navy's surface combatant force be, in the late 2020s? 24 054As, 12 052Ds, 4-8 055s, and 12 or so new generation frigates? Or something much more dramatic, such as 24 054As, 24 052Ds, 24 055s, 24 new generation frigates?
It's impossible to say, but I do think the Navy will likely build a new frigate class that matches or exceeds the number of 052Ds in service to complement the older 054As.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
IMHO yes they do need frigates. A destroyer is too much for things like anti piracy missions, SLOC patrols, small conflicts etc. PLAN is also very weak in ASW and they can bolster their capabilities by having the latest and greatest ASW suite in a new class of frigates to patrol up to the 2nd island chain. Frigates complement destroyers very well especially in times of more serious operations. It frees up the destroyer to concentrate on AAW and surface warfare while frigates do ASW.
No matter what though, any next gen PLAN frigate MUST have a very good robust ASW capabilities. Next gen subs that are being acquired by all the asian countries in pac rim would make ASW a highly crucial element of the PLAN.
Subs are like snipers. They are force multipliers. One sub alone can totally ruin everything and even just knowing there is one lurking around will alter any commanders plan giving the advantage to the opfor.
That's what I would do anywhere if I run PLAN.. ASW, ASW, ASW
Ask any task force commander.. he would rather face 100 strike fighters with 200 AShMs than one unaccounted for SSN!
No matter what though, any next gen PLAN frigate MUST have a very good robust ASW capabilities. Next gen subs that are being acquired by all the asian countries in pac rim would make ASW a highly crucial element of the PLAN.
Subs are like snipers. They are force multipliers. One sub alone can totally ruin everything and even just knowing there is one lurking around will alter any commanders plan giving the advantage to the opfor.
That's what I would do anywhere if I run PLAN.. ASW, ASW, ASW
Ask any task force commander.. he would rather face 100 strike fighters with 200 AShMs than one unaccounted for SSN!
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I just don't understand. Why they want to build several type of ships that has the same role (AAW) in large numbers? I know that 054A and 052C is compliment to each other; as long and medium range of layered air defense formation. But 052D has the capability to carry both HQ16 and HQ9. So why build a lot of ships with limited VLS capability like 054A?
This is also apply to the successor of 054A. If they have 055 and 052D, why need new frigates? with universal VLS, both 055 and 052D has already has cover everything that the frigate can do in the future.
This is also apply to the successor of 054A. If they have 055 and 052D, why need new frigates? with universal VLS, both 055 and 052D has already has cover everything that the frigate can do in the future.
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