052C/052D Class Destroyers

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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Recent history in the numerous civilian sectors has demonstrated that China regularly thinks and plans on a very big scale.

And you haven't addressed the logic behind my prediction.

Namely that China has the strategic requirement for the world's largest navy and also the industrial/financial capacity to continue building 3 large destroyers every year.
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What "logic"? That China has the strategic requirement for the world's largest navy? Says who? That China has the industrial/financial capacity to continue building 3 large destroyers every year? Says who? The US is bankrupting itself nonstop every year in order to maintain its current military, and you wish the Chinese military to be as foolhardy and rush head-first into bankruptcy as well? Good thinking. You're making vague, unsubstantiated, unverifiable claims that are akin to "China needs 2 zillion ships because it will be just so awesome".
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Iron Man said:
What "logic"? That China has the strategic requirement for the world's largest navy? Says who? That China has the industrial/financial capacity to continue building 3 large destroyers every year? Says who? The US is bankrupting itself nonstop every year in order to maintain its current military, and you wish the Chinese military to be as foolhardy and rush head-first into bankruptcy as well? Good thinking. You're making vague, unsubstantiated, unverifiable claims that are akin to "China needs 2 zillion ships because it will be just so awesome".
Click to expand...

No, China has concrete national security objectives that it achieves by having a bigger navy.

World's largest trading nation and has territorial disputes in the Western Pacific. China can't rely on the US Navy to protect freedom of navigation for this trade, most of which flows through the south china seas. Plus it would be useful if the US Navy was hesitant to operate in the Western Pacific, knowing that they faced a larger opponent.

China is the world's largest manufacturing nation, fact. China already the world's largest economy in terms of actual output, as per the IMF. China is also the world's largest civilian shipbuilder and has excess capacity, fact. So does China lack the capacity to build 3 type 55 every year? That is obit matching the US build level.

Remember that China is only spending 2% of GDP on the military, as per SIPRI for some decades now. And that is what I'm basing my future estimates on.

That is slightly less than the UK or France. The US and Russia routinely spent twice as much (4%) in the past decade.

So 60x Type-55 over the next 20 years should be affordable and definitely will not bankrupt China
 
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
AndrewS said:
No, China has concrete national security objectives that it achieves by having a bigger navy.

World's largest trading nation and has territorial disputes in the Western Pacific. China can't rely on the US Navy to protect this trade. Plus it would be useful if the US Navy was hesitant to operate in the Western Pacific, knowing that they faced a larger opponent.

China is the world's largest manufacturing nation, fact. China already the world's largest economy in terms of actual output, as per the IMF. China is also the world's largest civilian shipbuilder and has excess capacity, fact. So does China lack the capacity to build 3 type 55 every year? That is obit matching the US build level.

Remember that China is only spending 2% of GDP on the military, as per SIPRI. And that is what I'm basing my estimates on.

That is slightly less than the UK or France. The US and Russia routinely spent twice as much (4%) in the past decade.

So 60x Type-55 over the next 20 years should be affordable and definitely will not bankrupt China
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I have no doubt that China will continue to build a huge number of state-of-the-art warships. 60 doesn't seem like much of a challenge, especially if we assume a run as long as 20 years... however, that is only IF we were to assume that the 055 design will persevere that far into the future. The reason I don't believe we'll see sixty 055 is because Chinese innovation moves so fast I feel confident that a superior design will probably take over production in under 20 years. 055 production will probably cease even before then due to the lead time it takes to prepare the transition from building one design to another. Indeed, given that, 3 mighty warships a year seems very modest given China's ability.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
I have no doubt that China will continue to build a huge number of state-of-the-art warships. 60 doesn't seem like much of a challenge, especially if we assume a run as long as 20 years... however, that is only IF we were to assume that the 055 design will persevere that far into the future. The reason I don't believe we'll see sixty 055 is because Chinese innovation moves so fast I feel confident that a superior design will probably take over production in under 20 years. 055 production will probably cease even before then due to the lead time it takes to prepare the transition from building one design to another. Indeed, given that, 3 mighty warships a year seems very modest given China's ability.
Click to expand...

We can now see that the Type 55 has a lot of electrical generation capacity, so it is being setup as the future platform for railguns and lasers
 
I

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
No, China has concrete national security objectives that it achieves by having a bigger navy.

World's largest trading nation and has territorial disputes in the Western Pacific. China can't rely on the US Navy to protect freedom of navigation for this trade, most of which flows through the south china seas. Plus it would be useful if the US Navy was hesitant to operate in the Western Pacific, knowing that they faced a larger opponent.

China is the world's largest manufacturing nation, fact. China already the world's largest economy in terms of actual output, as per the IMF. China is also the world's largest civilian shipbuilder and has excess capacity, fact. So does China lack the capacity to build 3 type 55 every year? That is obit matching the US build level.

Remember that China is only spending 2% of GDP on the military, as per SIPRI for some decades now. And that is what I'm basing my future estimates on.

That is slightly less than the UK or France. The US and Russia routinely spent twice as much (4%) in the past decade.

So 60x Type-55 over the next 20 years should be affordable and definitely will not bankrupt China
Click to expand...
This last sentence is not based on any actual figures, and reflects just your personal opinion. This won't change no matter how many barely to totally non-relevant figures you cite.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
AndrewS said:
Recent history in the numerous civilian sectors has demonstrated that China regularly thinks and plans on a very big scale.

And you haven't addressed the logic behind my prediction.

Namely that China has the strategic requirement for the world's largest navy and also the industrial/financial capacity to continue building 3 large destroyers every year.
Click to expand...

I think your premises are reasonable but the conclusion doesn't follow. China may indeed perceive the need to operate the world's largest Navy and in the long-term may be able to achieve that goal. But that doesn't mean that China needs 90+ large destroyers (which is what sustaining a build rate of 3 per year would ultimately achieve). China's strategic geography will continue to favour significant numbers of small and medium-sized ships rather than a USN-style top-heavy structure, and such a balanced fleet could well be the world's largest without coming anywhere near 90 destroyers.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lethe said:
I think your premises are reasonable but the conclusion doesn't follow. China may indeed perceive the need to operate the world's largest Navy and in the long-term may be able to achieve that goal. But that doesn't mean that China needs 90+ large destroyers (which is what sustaining a build rate of 3 per year would ultimately achieve). China's strategic geography will continue to favour significant numbers of small and medium-sized ships rather than a USN-style top-heavy structure, and such a balanced fleet could well be the world's largest without coming anywhere near 90 destroyers.
Click to expand...

Note that the 90 odd Chinese destroyers will be accompanied by an even larger number of frigates and corvettes. So it is a balanced fleet, just a very big one.

I say 90 destroyers because the benchmark is 90 aegis destroyers in the US plus Japanese Navy.

And China should eventually want to build a fleet that can deter the combined fleets of the USA and Japan.
 
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