00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[Syrida2887]

It should be a local photo taken this morning. It seems that the construction is going on all day before the CNY to speed up the progress (pay attention to the position of the gantry crane, which may indicate that the last module at the tail is being hoisted)

 

[TK3600]

A few months ago I think most people had reasonably come around to the idea that it was likely a carrier, especially once the nuclear reactor housing became visible in November.

However, there is a difference between accepting something is likely a carrier versus having more definitive evidence -- the latter is what is important because if one wants to be able to convince someone who is not in the know or someone who is skeptical, evidence that is undeniable is the threshold to end a debate.

It was pretty clear in hindsight. It cannot be civilian ship due to the construction speed. It has to be a massive military ship. And it is nothing like any other ships like 076 but bear strong resemblence to a preceding carrier. The reactor housing was seen long ago, just in couple month earlier. A large novel nuclear warship with strong resemblance of a carrier is pretty clear what it should be.

 

[Blitzo]

It was pretty clear in hindsight. It cannot be civilian ship due to the construction speed. It has to be a massive military ship. And it is nothing like any other ships like 076 but bear strong resemblence to a preceding carrier. The reactor housing was seen long ago, just in couple month earlier. A large novel nuclear warship with strong resemblance of a carrier is pretty clear what it should be.

Of course it was pretty clear in hindsight -- it's been consensus here for over six months now that it was very likely to be a carrier.
However, being "very likely to be a carrier" is not the same as "irrefutable to be a carrier".


On SDF most people here agreed with the former, but the latter is something that has only been more definitively able to be confirmed in the last 2-3 months.


At the end of the day we need to be less arrogant and recognize that there is a difference between what we as PLA watchers accept as "likely" and what people outside of PLA watching communities will accept as "irrefutable evidence".
It's important to recognize there are different standards for different communities, and don't mistakenly conflate the two different standards.

 

[HailingTX20]

That feels like a bit of a revisionist take. There certainly wasn't a consensus regarding it being a carrier, let alone a CVN, for "over six months." Even five months ago, members were still arguing for a nuclear icebreaker or a civilian hull. Some were adamant that a carrier was effectively impossible based on the configuration of the keel blocks. And I'm not talking about some fringe or new members but about established and loud voices.

You're emphasizing the value of caution but ignoring the cost of being overcautious. You previously argued that we should wait for confirmation from 'big' sources. We still haven't really gotten that confirmation, yet the reality on the ground makes the conclusion undeniable. If we ignore visible evidence and refuse to apply Occam's razor until one of the major Chinese sources gives us permission to believe it, we lose the ability to track these developments in real time.

 

[Dante80]

Being cautious about something does not mean you don't track it in real time.

It means you don't have the corroborating evidence to rule out something. You have an idea about what is happening, you actively track it and you inform your opinions accordingly.

On the other hand, jumping the gun is unhelpful, and captain hindsight is a lousy super hero.

China is a lot more opaque about programs like this. This axiomatically influences PLA watching, it comes with the territory, It is what it is.