Not just messenger, even translator must be shot on sight!
00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter AETHER
- Start date
Honestly, a Nimitz-sized CV would be a GREAT addition to the PLAN's future fleet with their CVNs. Maybe even a gas turbine one.
proelite
Junior Member
Nimitz is CVN sized...
Yeah I think he's advocating for a CV that's 100,000 ton sized, so basically a larger Fujian.
You are not making any unreasonable extrapolations, so there is nothing to kill.
The whole point of posting is to try and adhere to a bit of discipline, so long as everyone enthusiastically abides by that, great.
The most conservative expectation at this stage is a revised Fujian of similar size, using the same propulsion arrangement, possibly even the same catapult arrangement.
A gas turbine powered CV the size of Fujian (let alone a 100k ton behemoth) would be adding another bespoke propulsion arrangement that would have limited benefits towards the eventual end goal of CVNs which we all know is the reasonable end point anyhow, while lacking the degree cross applicability that steam turbines have.
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I think everyone is understandably anticipating what the future of PLAN carrier procurement will be, but it's important to establish what is reasonably likely, thus letting us know what is unknown (and thus to stay vigilant against fanboyism)
What we do know as likely are:
- at some point in the foreseeable future, a large displacement (?100k ton) CVN will be produced. The exact configuration is yet to be fully set in stone from our pov, but a four catapult, Sino-Ford is not out of the question based on the possible DL test module, and based on the revised Wuhan mockup and some past semi-official artwork. There are noises that it might be in very early stages of construction at Dalian, but that is also yet to be confirmed and must be treated with prejudice
- to complement the first CVN, a second conventionally powered CV may also be produced. The exact configuration is similarly also not known, but until proven otherwise, there should be vigilance against the idea of there being a major deviation from CV-18 Fujian either in size or key determinants (propulsion, catapult count etc). There are noises a second conventionally powered CV might be produced at Jiangnan, but is to also yet to be confirmed and must be treated with prejudice
What we do not have any reasonable noises about, include:
- the exact timescale of when the first CVN and second CV will be expected to enter the water/be launched
- what will follow the first CVN and second CV (further CVNs or further CVs, or both??)
- what the long term intent for DL and JN to produce carriers will be -- i.e.: we all know about drydock space, but actual PLAN requirements, funding and subsystems is something else entirely, particularly how "continuous" production would be or whether both shipyards would carry out future construction simultaneously
Needless to say, the idea of DL and JN producing carriers (or CVNs in particular) at full ahead rates simultaneously is tantalizing to many, sometimes attributed to the idea of "dumplings" seen with FFGs and DDGs in past years (and potentially what is undergoing with SSNs in recent years) --- but the scale, nature and strategic consequence of "dumpling" production of carriers for the PLAN is so immense that entertaining the idea should be done very very cautiously, and IMO shouldn't be done in too cavalier a manner.
What we do know as likely are:
- at some point in the foreseeable future, a large displacement (?100k ton) CVN will be produced. The exact configuration is yet to be fully set in stone from our pov, but a four catapult, Sino-Ford is not out of the question based on the possible DL test module, and based on the revised Wuhan mockup and some past semi-official artwork. There are noises that it might be in very early stages of construction at Dalian, but that is also yet to be confirmed and must be treated with prejudice
- to complement the first CVN, a second conventionally powered CV may also be produced. The exact configuration is similarly also not known, but until proven otherwise, there should be vigilance against the idea of there being a major deviation from CV-18 Fujian either in size or key determinants (propulsion, catapult count etc). There are noises a second conventionally powered CV might be produced at Jiangnan, but is to also yet to be confirmed and must be treated with prejudice
What we do not have any reasonable noises about, include:
- the exact timescale of when the first CVN and second CV will be expected to enter the water/be launched
- what will follow the first CVN and second CV (further CVNs or further CVs, or both??)
- what the long term intent for DL and JN to produce carriers will be -- i.e.: we all know about drydock space, but actual PLAN requirements, funding and subsystems is something else entirely, particularly how "continuous" production would be or whether both shipyards would carry out future construction simultaneously
Needless to say, the idea of DL and JN producing carriers (or CVNs in particular) at full ahead rates simultaneously is tantalizing to many, sometimes attributed to the idea of "dumplings" seen with FFGs and DDGs in past years (and potentially what is undergoing with SSNs in recent years) --- but the scale, nature and strategic consequence of "dumpling" production of carriers for the PLAN is so immense that entertaining the idea should be done very very cautiously, and IMO shouldn't be done in too cavalier a manner.
Soryu-Hiryu like pair "learning by doing" seems to be very likely.
Especially since China did it already in the past with Liaoning-Shandong.
I think some guys over-interpreted the video. Make (big) dumpling(s) or 下(大)饺子 may not be limited to any certain type(?) or any specific numbers? Considering latest news about CSSC on Chinese Internet is mostly about CVN 004, the video mainly hints 004 is being built actively in DL, maybe also another carrier's progress in JN is included, but unlikely any more carriers.
DDG 055 batch II is also actively being built by CSSC. These are big ships too, could also be seen as Make dumplings, but that's not the latest progress, so I won't associate it too much with the video.
Given CVN 004's massive size, maybe Make dumpling(s) can also refer to one/two giant ships' fast construction? We should be patient, wait and see before getting too crazy about any hints.
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I think "make dumplings" can be reasonably interpreted as making a bunch of things rapidly. That part IMO is not very debatable, it's just how that phrase is used in Chinese. The size part is IMO does leave substantial room for interpretation. The PLAN is inducting a lot of big ships, so it's possible that it's not referring to carriers.
I must be in the minority then because I think that would be a bad idea!
Setting aside 2 dry docks or 2 shipyards for the production of CVN's at full bore would be a BIG commitment. That's like putting all your eggs into one basket. The only way that would make sense is if the PLA navy is 100% convinced that CVN's will remain the dominant power projection force not just for today but for the next 50 years.
With all the new technology coming out today ( drones, computer AI, hypersonic missiles ) that's a really big if. I think using 1 dry dock to build a CVN at a time is a safer bet. That leaves more resources to pursue other things. Granted I have no proof either way. We just have to wait and see.