00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[Syrida2887]

Compared with the satellite images of one year ago and half a year ago, although there is no giant section splicing of 003, the speed of tower construction method in China is also quite fast.

 

[Engineer]

I want to make a further meta-commentary about the nature of this thread's attitudes to this ship over the last year.

I think people may have forgotten that at the end of the day, a nuclear powered supercarrier is one of the final crowning products of PLA watching with hopes for such a product going back decades (arguably since Adm Liu Huaqing visited the US in the 1980s and saw carriers first hand), and certainly it has been something on the "checklist" since before I started PLA watching.
And in the real world, a nuclear powered supercarrier is something that only the leading superpower of the world has had for the last half century, with both political consequences and with real military capabilities associated with it.

All of which is to say, when it was confirmed that the PRC was building a nuclear powered supercarrier of its own, it would be a politically and militarily significant milestone, and it is also by association something where everyone should have naturally been cautious to not "cry wolf" or to jump the gun.


Jumping the gun and saying that this was "definitively" a nuclear powered supercarrirer, before we had irrefutable visual evidence of it (which only emerged in the last 1-3 months imo), meant we were at high risk of making a big claim which would then end up spreading to other parts of the internet/defense communities, and put us at risk of having to walk back a big claim if it ended up false, even if we were all fairly confident based on credible rumors+construction pace, that it was likely to be a nuclear supercarrier.

Having to walk back a confident statement that this was definitively a nuclear supercarrier, would be damaging to PLA watching credibility in the English language sphere.


That is why:
1) It was entirely reasonable for PLA watchers in the last year to have consensus that this was probably a nuclear supercarrier (even before irrefutable visual evidence emerged in the last 1-3 months) based on rumors/construction pace/initial keel and hull compartments, while also having the grace to state that "it is yet to be definitively proven based on evidence".
2) It is also entirely reasonable for people (before the last 1-3 months) to ask on what evidence base it is a nuclear supercarrier versus other alternative outcomes (civilian ship, or nuclear powered civilian ship etc).

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

As to your meta-commentary about the thread's attitude, that attitude isn't limited to this thread, but can be also observed in the Chinese navy-watching community. All rationality goes out of the window and everything gets degenerated into stats in a RPG game. I am going to go one step further than you and label the attitude as toxic.

 

[Mekconyov]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

As to your meta-commentary about the thread's attitude, that attitude isn't limited to this thread, but can be also observed in the Chinese navy-watching community. All rationality goes out of the window and everything gets degenerated into stats in a RPG game. I am going to go one step further than you and label the attitude as toxic.

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation accentuates. U may not be far off. What a game

 

[gwel]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier

My interpretation currently is that china seeks experience in carrier operations, Type 003 main utility seems to be a tool to gain that experience. I don't think many people expect them to build a dozen Type 003 and be happy with the design.
Given how long it takes to build experience, then design a new ship around it, and build and field then, I would say another tool to gain operational experience might be not outright urgent, but it seems timely? So I would see Type 004 as a new tool that brings a new aspect to the table they can gain experience on.

 

[Mekconyov]

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation eventuate. U may not be far off. What a game

 

[Engineer]

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation accentuates. U may not be far off. What a game

No, I am not "dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004". I would actually be quite content if China's nuclear carrier never materialise, because my view is that penalities of nuclear propulsion cancel out the benefits, making the endeavour pointless. However, the reality is that China will build a nuclear carrier at some point, so it would make the most sense for there to be a single design which is future (nuclear) proof. My assertion is that it is still a bit early to build a nuclear carrier, so I put my money on 004 being conventional.