Not a lot to see in the latest image, but tomorrow we'll probably get the HD version:
View attachment 153459
The mid-section module is very interesting because from its approximate dimensions we can already infer a lot about what the final carrier will look like. Assuming this is a carrier, of course.
Some rumours and speculations we've been hearing over the last few years:
- Dalian has undergone facility upgrades to handle nuclear equipment and construct nuclear-powered ships.
- A nuclear carrier is likely to follow after 003's completion.
In consideration of recent photographic evidence:
- Carrier test modules at Dalian, including some pieces with very obvious tracks where catapults would be installed.
- Superstructure mockup in Wuhan undergoing major modifications.
And of course other points of speculation, the most significant being that progress in this drydock has been so slow, it's unlikely to be a civilian vessel. And the only military project on the table that would have a 44m beam is a large carrier.
With specific regards to the modules in drydock, it's measured to have an approximate 44m beam, which is 3 meters wider than Ford's. It might not sound like a lot, but a small increase in beam at waterline corresponds to a major increase in displacement. Someone also claims to have measured the draft at 13m, which is very difficult to determine at this stage, but if true would be deeper than Ford's 12m.
We can also expect it to be a little longer than 003, which was originally designed with shorter steam catapults but halfway through construction switched to EMALS. One unfortunate result of the extra catapult length is that the forward JBDs cross the landing strip. I expect 004 to be lengthened to around 340m to accommodate this. If we take 003's fineness ratio of 7.7 and scale it up to a 44m beam, that gives us a final length of 339m.
Based on the estimated dimensions so far, and assuming it retains a similar fineness ratio and block coefficient to 003, we could expect that 004 ends up with a full-load displacement of 100K to 105K tons.
Despite the lower fineness ratio compared to Ford, 003 does not have as high a block coefficient as American carriers, possibly due to drag and endurance concerns due to conventional propulsion. I'd be interested to see if they go for a higher block coefficient with 004, which would result in a higher displacement, perhaps even over 110K tons.
All very preliminary speculation, of course, but it's scientific enough. Based on the same sort of analysis, I figured out in 2020 that 003 would end up at 80-85K tons full load.
