Strategic implications of Chinese/US AI development

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by shifty_ginosaji, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. AssassinsMace
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    AssassinsMace Brigadier

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    Apple is framing it that things will get better as the economy, global and domestic, gets better. It's better than saying they've lost those Chinese customers to the competition. Also Apple is trying to send a message to Trump that hurting China, to which how Trump measures success, has consequences and blowback coming at the US. And this is all a result of the lies told by US corporations, politicians, and the media about trade in the first place.

    US corporations like it when the American people blame it on other countries because that distracts the 100% blame solely on them that makes the decision to outsource. Americans think something underhanded is happening like foreign countries are pointing a gun US corporations' heads and forcing them to outsource jobs to their countries. US corporations are making more money than ever exploiting cheap labor overseas so they're not being forced to do anything they don't want to do.

    The politicians who protect corporate America because they want that job after public service being a lobbyist or board member of said corporation don't want to lose their gravy train and also don't want to deal with the headache of pretending to the public that they're doing something about it when they aren't. Blame it on foreigners and they don't have pretend about caring about average Joe America. If everyone is on board against outsourcing, they can easily pass a law to stop outsourcing. What are they going to say? China is pointing a gun to America's head preventing them from passing a law...?

    If Trump can claim China is interfering in the US election process just because they're not buying products from Trump's voter base, then it's an act of war if they believe China is pointing a literal gun to America's head to force US corporations to handover American technology and to send American jobs to China. Yet you don't hear anyone in the US government calling for a military counterstrike on China when an act of war has been committed upon the US. The media lies because they get better ratings portraying the US the victim of foreign treachery because Americans want to be portrayed as the victim to counter their history that says otherwise and especially against China. And if they're the victims, they have the right to commit acts that other wise would make them the aggressors instead if they weren't the victims. Because the US is the victim, they get to order China to stop advancing in technology because Chinese can't be trusted with the technology so it's all right stop them for something that would be an act of war if anyone else tried to keep the West backward. China is obligated to allay their fears and the only way to do that is by obeying literally everything they command without question or challenge. And interesting how everything comes down to the same goals as when they were trying to colonize the world.
     
    #71 AssassinsMace, Jan 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  2. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Unless they change their strategy it could be then beginning of the end for apple just like 20 years ago with PC
    https://www.dailyherald.com/busines...rades-apples-iphone-problem-goes-beyond-china
    Via beijingwalker

    The end of upgrades? Apple's iPhone problem goes beyond China.
    By Hamza Shaban
    The Washington Post
    1/5/2019 6:10 AM

    Shares of Apple plummeted more than 8 percent in early trading Thursday after chief executive Tim Cook said the company lowered quarterly sales estimates for the first time in more than 15 years, pinning the shortfall on a deteriorating economy in China, inflamed by President Donald Trump's trade war.

    But as Cook acknowledged, Apple's woes extend beyond shifting preferences in foreign markets. Not only does Apple's warning highlight the consequences of a slowing global economy, it brings to center stage enduring concerns about the company's ability to innovate and maintain its position as a cutting edge technology company despite crucial changes in the smartphone market and the relationship people have with their costly devices.

    "n the modern iPhone era last night was clearly Apple's darkest day in our opinion and represents a challenging growth period ahead for the company (and its investors)," Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a note to clients Thursday. The biggest fear for Apple investors, Ives said, is a customer base that stalls out, failing to grow over the next few years and triggering a "nightmare scenario decline." To stave off that possibility, Apple could bank on future iPhone redesigns and hope that more people choose to upgrade, or it could slash prices ahead of the next iPhone release, with aims to boost demand in China.

    But Cook's warning was alarming to investors for reasons that hit closer to home. "n some developed markets, iPhone upgrades also were not as strong as we thought they would be," he wrote. Cook went on to describe factors "broadly impacting" sales of its flagship product, including fewer sweeteners from carriers to reduce the cost of buying a new phone, higher prices, and the tendency for iPhone owners to hold on to their devices for longer periods of time, instead of indulging the latest upgrade.

    As The Washington Post reported last month, Apple extracts more money from frequent upgraders, but as product innovation slows, people are holding on to their iPhone for three years or longer. That's a drastic change from just four years ago, when American consumers would pony up for the newest phone after about 24 months, according to the mobile analytics firm BayStreet Research.

    To make up for flat iPhone sales, Apple has simply started charging customers more money on average for newer models.

    "Perhaps in part because there are no easy fixes, Apple failed to acknowledge the possibility that current iPhone prices are simply too high," Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein Research, said in a note to investors Thursday. "The other real issue that Apple's press release did not mention explicitly is that the high-end smartphone market is increasingly mature (having declined for 3 straight years ) and the overall market contracted for the first time in 2018."

    This insight is perhaps more concerning to Apple and says more about the company's trajectory than the immediate impacts of slowing growth in China and Washington's trade battle with Beijing. If people who want a newish iPhone already have one, and don't intend on buying the next one, then Cook's ominous note isn't alarming because it came with unexpected urgency, it's alarming because it arrived so late. "It's possible conditions in China changed quickly, but the broader trends in smartphone activity are not new. "Why didn't Cook make any of these admissions before now?" wrote Bloomberg's Shira Ovide.

    Cook, who appeared on CNBC to play damage control after disclosing the revenue shortfall, was "not that convincing," Ross Gerber, the president and chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki, said on Twitter. Gerber described Cook's leadership at Apple as a series of risks-not-taken, as other tech companies have soared by on genre-defining innovations or are betting on breakthroughs to come: "Lost IOT in the home to amazon. No # EV future, missed Tesla. No streaming future. Missed Netflix. Still could pick up some Disney. Time for Tim to go," he said, referring to Apple taking the bold step of buying Disney.

    Cook ended his note by saying the company is as confident as ever even as it exits a challenging quarter. That may be true, but that is what some experts see as precisely the problem.
     
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  3. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    If Apple is banking on the world's economy to recover then they might have to wait another decade. A lot of people think the market is already in a downwards slope similar to 2007s.
    By that time who knows if we will even still be using smartphones.

    With regards to the lack of penetration of Chinese smartphones in the USA market that is because the major carriers in the USA do not carry these products. Most people in the USA currently lease their phones. This might change in the future however. I think companies with the direct sales model like Oppo have good chances there.
     
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  4. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Apple is considering moving manufacturing of premium iPhones to India now. Every business moving out of China is in for some big lessons so good luck to them :D Most of them will go bankrupt within years and the rest will struggle to find a match for Chinese price + quality, lowering their competitiveness and hopefully giving room for other businesses to move in. Most of these will be Chinese it appears because no one seems to be able to handle the manufacturing problem. Gone are the days where the western world understood what real hard work is and manufacturing will not return to the US even in Trump's wettest of dreams.
     
  5. AssassinsMace
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    AssassinsMace Brigadier

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    I'd take that with a grain of salt. I read an article making that conclusion because Foxconn is investing a few hundred million dollars into India. Foxconn is also investing $9 billion into China. Tim Cook even said Apple can't make iPhones any place else besides China because every place else doesn't have the cheap skilled labor needed. Foxconn investing into India is probably more about Modi's Make in India condition that if foreigners want to sell in India they have to make it in India. Added that all attempts by India to make domestic smartphones, all their components are from China. Vietnam just introduced their own smartphone and guess what? All the components come from China.
     
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  6. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Yeah that Vietnamese smartphone was like the super cheap Indian one a few years back. All Chinese components and the manufacturer pretending they are domestic to play into the nationalist sentiment until that crowd reveals the truth. It's ironic though.

    Now that BJP has the whole "Make in India" plan, they are beginning to understand the Chinese method of not letting foreign businesses take advantage of their labour and market size. Practicing this decades after China went down that route. Wonder how the old powers will feel about this Indian move if they pursue it with any serious intention of following China's model.
     
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  7. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
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    The power plant design/ car industry still improving, but the speed slowed down dramatically.
    the 2018 cars still better than the 2008 cars, but magnitude(s) less difference than between 1908 and 1918 cars.

    Apple R&D budget close as high as all other smartphone maker (phone related ) R&D AND profit.
    IF tha APPLE can't found / purchase / develop anything that makes significant difference, then who can ?
     
  8. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
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    Just for record : this company predicted back in 2011 that the Windows phone will have 20% market share in the smartphone market by 2015
    https://www.geekwire.com/2011/idc-cuts-2011-windows-phone-forecast-thinks-2-2015/

    The prediction that the IDG made in 2011 had even no relation with the reality experienced back in 2015.


    Interesting : )
     
  9. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Yes.

    But what is equally important is what has happened in the internet space in India.

    Google, Facebook, Whatsapp, Amazon/Walmart dominate in their respective niches namely; Search, Social Media, Messaging and Retail.

    What happened to the domestic Indian technology giants that were supposed to emerge from India's IT expertise, and leapfrog India straight into hi-tech services?

    At this point, it would make sense for Indian companies in these fields to partner up with their Chinese equivalents, who could provide funding, technology solutions and more relevant management expertise.

    It's the only way Indian companies are going to be able to compete.
     
  10. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    read carefully IT IS CALLED PREDICTION and not the reality find the definition of prediction in dictionary .com
    Synonyms for prediction
    See more synonyms for on Thesaurus.com
    2. forecast, augury, prognostication, divination, projection.

    So it is forecast But there will be killer app once all those infrastructure are built and running There will be thousand green shoot that come up with neat app But since China is the lead in 5G she has 1 or 2 year app development time than the rest of the world Capricci!
     
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