South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Equation

Lieutenant General
The Philippines Is Struggling To Stop Taiwan And Vietnam From Entering A Disputed Sea

China has earned a dubious name in the Philippines for asserting a claim to parts of a vast sea that Manila sees as its own. Chinese vessels bar Philippine fishing boats from entering a 150-square-km shoal where fishermen in the Southeast Asian country say the good hauls come from. But now not-so-friendly vessels from Taiwan and Vietnam are also turning up off Luzon Island in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, according to fishermen and local officials in a city on the South China Sea.

Boats from nearby Taiwan, which like China claims most of the entire 3.5 million-square-km sea, use illegal techniques such as “super lights” to attract fish, says Franklin Cattigay, coast guard commander in the city of Masinloc. A Taiwanese boat was seized in 2015 in the Batanes island chain that separates Taiwan from Luzon, according to this Philippine
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, and in 2013 the Philippine coast guard shot at another Taiwan-registered vessel in the same strait, killing the captain.

At least five Vietnamese vessels fish periodically about 50 km or two hours from Masinloc, local fishermen and a city fisheries staff person said this week. Vietnam claims much of the western South China Sea, but its zone doesn’t normally overlap with the Philippine one of the same expanse.

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A Philippine soldier stands near the pier of Masinloc town, Zambales province, north of Manila, 230 kilometres (140 miles) from Scarborough Shoal on May 18, 2012. (TED ALJIBE/AFP/GettyImages)


Fishing by boats from Taiwan and Vietnam is contributing to what the coast guard estimates as a 50% depletion of stocks for Masinloc, where 3,000 of the city’s 49,000 inhabitants are registered to fish. Nationwide, 1% to 2% of the 100 million-plus population depends on the seas for a living.

The Philippines is learning to live with China. After it took control in 2012 of
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, a prized and contested fishery 230 km west of Manisloc, Manila raged against Beijing and their dispute landed in a
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. But Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte sought peace in October and Masinloc fishermen say Chinese vessels do not harass them outside the shoal.


But the Philippines has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan, just the memory of the
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that erupted from the 2013 shooting incident. Vietnam is normally seen as a Philippine partner in resisting the influence of China at sea. Japan has moved to offer both military aid, for example. Beijing has irked both by quickly reclaiming land for military installations since 2010. It’s expected to step up enforcement of this year’s South China Sea fishing moratorium from May to August, in theory hitting both Southeast Asian countries.

Use of Philippine claims by foreign vessels points to porous law enforcement. To shore it up, a provincial fishing association that includes Masinloc has drafted a note asking President Rodrigo Duterte to restore U.S. naval help with maritime patrols. Duterte spiked that program effective this year over broader disagreements with Washington. Foreign vessels in the Philippine South China Sea claim are “rampant,” the coast guard commander says.

“We are dispatching our vessel, patrolling, but if we insist on our demands, we cannot go ask China,” he says. “I’m in favor of the U.S. helping the Philippines in terms of our defense.”

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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Duterte Snubs China, Orders Army to Occupy Disputed Islands

Duterte's plan is unlikely to sit well with Beijing, especially as it comes amid a fast-warming relationship in recent months.

The erratic Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte abruptly ordered his troops on Thursday to occupy uninhabited islands and shoals in the disputed South China Sea that the country claims, in an apparent change of tack that is likely to anger China.

The firebrand leader's move comes after he had previously made a high-profile visit to Beijing, where he signed multiple trade deals and signaled that a China-Philippines strategic relationship was on the cards. During his election campaign, Duterte had joked that he would jet ski to a Chinese man-made island in the South China Sea to reinforce Manila's claim by raising the national flag.

"The unoccupied, which are ours, let's live on it," Duterte told reporters during a visit to an army base in Palawan, near the disputed waters.

"It looks like everyone is making a grab for the islands there. So we better live on those that are still unoccupied. What's ours now, we claim it and make a strong point from there."

Duterte announced his "separation" from the United States in October, declaring he had realigned with China as the two agreed to resolve their South China Sea dispute through talks.

His efforts to engage China in themselves marked a reversal in foreign policy.

Duterte's plan is unlikely to sit well with Beijing, especially as it comes amid a fast-warming relationship in recent months.

"We try to be friends with everybody, but we have to maintain our jurisdiction," he continued.

Duterte's comments came just ahead of a first summit meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida on Thursday and Friday.

Asia expert Bonnie Glaser at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said Duterte's remarks looked like "bluster" comparable to his jet-ski remarks. "Vintage Duterte. All bark, no bite," she wrote on Twitter.

"Duterte seems to be under greater domestic pressure and criticism on maritime issues," she added to Reuters. "I’m inclined to believe that his latest comment is driven ... by domestic politics."

Experts in China similarly view the comments as a characteristic “all blow and no show” comment from the Filipino statesman.

"Actually the islands he mentioned are already under the control of the Philippines. It's natural if the Philippines deploys troops on these islands," Zhuang Guotu, head of the Center of Southeast Asian Studies at Xiamen University, told Chinese state daily Global Times, adding that Duterte didn't talk about the Huang Yan island, which China views as far more important to its interest.

Last month, Defense Minister Delfin Lorenzana said the Philippines would strengthen its facilities in the Spratlys by building a new port and paving an existing rough airstrip.

Duterte said last month it was pointless trying to challenge China's fortification of its man-made islands and ridiculed the media for taking his jet-ski comments seriously.

"We cannot stop them because they are building it with their mind fixed that they own the place. China will go to war," he said.
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solarz

Brigadier
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As usual, sensationalist headline with no substance to back it up.

This paragraph in particular belies the claim that China will be "angered" by the move:
"Actually the islands he mentioned are already under the control of the Philippines. It's natural if the Philippines deploys troops on these islands," Zhuang Guotu, head of the Center of Southeast Asian Studies at Xiamen University, told Chinese state daily Global Times, adding that Duterte didn't talk about the Huang Yan island, which China views as far more important to its interest.

I would say Duterte is playing it smart, making a seemingly patriotic move without actually angering China.
 
interestingly Marine commander in Australia says US remains committed to Asia pivot
U.S. Marines deployed to Australia's northern city of Darwin reflect President Trump's continued commitment to a security "pivot" to Asia at a time of heightened tensions, the Marines' commander said on Wednesday.

Some 1,250 Marines began arriving in Darwin by plane on Tuesday for joint training maneuvers under a 25-year program started by former U.S. President Obama in 2011 as a part of his "pivot" to Asia policy.

Trump's early rhetoric demanding Asian allies carry a fair share of the security burden in the region had seen a cloud over the U.S military "pivot," but he has since committed to defend Asian allies in the face of recent North Korean threats.

"The deployment of a Marine Air Ground Taskforce to Australia certainly continues to communicate a sustained commitment to the region, I believe that's why we continue to see the growth and the evolution of the (taskforce)," the Marines' commander Lt. Col. Brian Middleton told Reuters in an interview in Darwin.

"I'm well aware of all the tensions, certainly, there's no lack of activity and things to keep either Australian or American attention in the Pacific area of influence here."

The strength of this year's contingent lags well behind the initial plan to reach 2,500 Marines this year, but Middleton said the aim remains to grow the force.

"I think at the right time when our interoperability gets to the point that it needs to, and when both countries agree to it, we’ll continue to proceed and eventually get to the 2,500," Middleton said.

Australia is a staunch U.S. ally which sent troops to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as alongside Americans in wars in Vietnam and Korea.

The 13 aircraft sent with the Marines is the largest U.S. aircraft detachment sent to Australia in peacetime history, with four tilt-rotor MV-22 Ospreys, expanding the Marines' range to 850 nautical miles, which from their base at Australia's Robertson Barracks includes most of eastern Indonesia.

Middleton has no plans to visit Indonesia and said his mission was mainly training inside Australia to "contribute to stability in the region and make both the Marine Corps, the United States and Australia better postured to be able to respond to crises whether or not they be natural or unnatural."

During the Marines six-month deployment training exercises with Australian, Japanese and Chinese troops are scheduled.
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I recalled a Udaloy had been there recently ... now found it: Jan 6, 2017
I happened to post about the Admiral Tributs Tuesday at 9:27 PM

and she then had a visitor :)
MzRN.jpg


(comes from the photo gallery at gazeta.ru:
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... and it's a Slava this time:
russia-philippines-1.JPG


Russian navy visits Philippines as Duterte tightens ties with US foes
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Russian navy vessels arrived in the Philippines on Thursday for joint exercises as part of a drive for new security ties under President Rodrigo Duterte's revamped foreign policy of courting the traditional foes of Manila's top ally, Washington.

The guided-missile cruiser Varyag, accompanied by the fuel tanker ship, Pechenge, are on a four-day goodwill visit to the Philippines, the second port call by Russian warships in three months.

The move is part of what Duterte describes as a pursuit of a constitutionally mandated "independent foreign policy." He has made no secret of his grudge against the United States and has made befriending R ussia and China the priority of his diversification drive.

Captain Lued Lincuna, director of the Philippine navy's public affairs, said the Philippines hoped to learn from the Russians during training activi ties and a demonstration of advanced equipment and weapons systems.

The schedule includes training and sports activi ties with the flagship vessel of the RussianPacific fleet, pl us a Russian concert in a park.

Russian commander Captain Alexsei Ulyanenko said the port call would make a "significant contribution" to strengthening relations and maintaining stability in the region.

Moscow wants to help Manila combat extremism and piracy, stepping up cooperation and training in areas where the Philippines has traditionally worked closely with its former colonial master the United States.

The relationship is expected to develop further next month when Duterte and Russiancounterpart Vladimir Putin witness the signing of defense agreements in Moscow.

When Duterte met Putin for the first time last year, the Philippine leader spoke at length about what he called U.S. "hypocrisy".

Duterte has instructed his defense minister to look into how the Philippines could acquire modern military equipment from R ussia, like drones, night-vision gear, sniper rifles, and even helicopters.
 
interestingly Adm. Harry Harris, the military's hard-line commander in the Pacific, comes to Capitol Hill
The four-star commander of all U.S. forces in the Pacific doesn't think twice about standing in line at Subway and buying his own sandwich.

PACOM staffers are occasionally amazed to see Adm. Harry Harris, one of the most powerful officers in the military, waiting in line with them for lunch at the cafeteria, especially for a man who comes from the hierarchical, rank-has-its-privileges tradition of the Navy, where even the most junior officers are waited on by enlisted sailors at meal times.

But people who have worked with Harris say that's consistent with the officer they know. A likable and outgoing man who trusts his staff and will go out of his way to show loyalty, Harris, they say, delegates to his subordinates but knows when to step in and provide guidance. And, despite garnering a reputation for bellicose rhetoric, those who have served with him say he is a remarkably discrete man who knows when to push and when to keep quiet.

Yet Harris has also developed a reputation for occasionally going too far to advance his views. During the last two years of the Obama administration, he pushed a more hard-line view of Chinese island building in the South China Sea, and has at times pushed harder than some in the previous White House were comfortable with.

While Harris regularly cites North Korea as the single greatest threat to peace in the region, for the past two years Harris's name is more deeply tied with the standoff with China's maritime claims in the East and South China seas. In China, the 60-year-old U.S. Naval Academy graduate is widely distrusted, and his half-Japanese heritage has made him the target of racism in Chinese state media. At one point, the state outlet Xinhua claimed he is taking Japan's side in maritime disputes because of his "blood, background, political inclination and values."

Now, as Harris comes to Capitol Hill to testify Wednesday, he'll have the attention of not just the lawmakers but of the entire Asia-Pacific region, which is on edge from rising tensions between North Korea and the U.S. that threaten to bubble over into a regional conflict. And there is good reason for that. The new administration has signaled that they see North Korea, a state protected and sponsored for years by the Chinese government, as the single greatest threat to U.S. security in the world. That puts Harris at the center of regional forces that could end in catastrophe if not carefully managed.

In contrast with his predecessors at PACOM, Harris has been a strong and provocative voice, regularly challenging China's actions in the region and pushing for ever-stronger U.S. moves there. When asked in 2013 what was the greatest threat to security in the region, then-PACOM Commander Adm. Samuel Locklear responded "climate change." But Harris has far more assertive in his views.

"In my opinion China is clearly militarizing the South China Sea," Harris told the Senate Armed Services Committee in February 2016. "You’d have to believe in a flat earth to believe otherwise."

That kind of blunt rhetoric has become Harris's trademark, experts say.

"He speaks his mind and he speaks truth to power but he does it publicly, so he's something of a rarity," said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "There were people in the [Obama] White House at the time who were uneasy with that kind of rhetoric because they weren't there yet."

He shot to the forefront of the tensions with China on March 31, 2015, when then-Pacific Fleet Commander Harris shook the region with the strongest rhetoric to date coming from a U.S. official in regards to China's actions in the South China Sea. Starting in earnest in 2014, China rapidly built out islands atop sandbars, reefs and outcroppings in the Spratly Islands chain in the South China Sea, a set of features claimed by nearly every power in the region.

China was attempting to bolster claims of maritime rights to virtually all of the South China Sea, and has claimed historic dominion over the body of water through a post-World War II map it submitted to the U.N. in 2009 — known in international circles as the "nine-dash line." China has been deliberately vague about what they think the nine-dash line means, but Harris, the four-star Pacific Fleet commander, thrust himself into the debate, pointing the finger at China for destabilizing the region through expansive claims and outlandish construction projects.

"China is creating a great wall of sand, with dredges and bulldozers, over the course of months," Harris told the audience at a conference in Australia. "When one looks at China's pattern of provocative actions towards smaller claimant states — the lack of clarity on its sweeping nine-dash line claim that is inconsistent with international law and the deep asymmetry between China’s capabilities and those of its smaller neighbors — well, it’s no surprise that the scope and pace of building man-made islands raise serious questions about Chinese intentions."

The catch phrase "great wall of sand" had a predictable effect — it took off. Publications around the world reported it, elevating a little remarked-upon Chinese construction project in the South China Sea out of the Washington and Asian think tank and national security world and into the mainstream consciousness. Newspapers and media throughout the world covered his remarks and major networks began running segments on China's islands in the South China Sea.

Those who know Harris said he's not one to talk tough for the sake of talking tough. Even from his earlier days as a naval flight officer in the P-3 community, he always had a strong sense of discretion.

"He knew when to talk and when to keep his mouth shut," said Jerry Hendrix, a retired naval flight officer and analyst with the Center for a New American Security who knew Harris when he was a lieutenant commander. "That's why I was a bit surprised by his 'great wall of sand' speech. But you can be sure that if he said it, he'd thought about it for a long time beforehand."

Harris's tough speech made some in the Obama White House — eager to work with China on a host of other issues including climate accords and trade — uneasy. His consistently sharp rhetoric concerning China's intentions in the South China Sea was a continual source of disquiet inside Obama's famously bureaucratic and controlling National Security Council.

In early 2016, Harris and other U.S. military leaders were directed by then-National Security Advisor Susan Rice to back off the harsh China rhetoric ahead of a meeting between President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a move that many saw as indicative of just how uneasy the public criticisms from the Pacific commander were making the White House.

But behind closed doors, Harris continued to wage a campaign to increase U.S. presence in the South China Sea, and that summer the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group spent three months showing the flag in the hotly contested body of water, playing host to senior defense officials from both the U.S. and the Philippines during its closely watched patrol. Harris also pushed for an increase in Freedom of Navigation Operations, where U.S. ships patrol inside of 12 miles from the islands China claims there, a routine Navy operation that Obama's White House ordered canceled in 2012 in a concession to China.

The FONOPs made a comeback in late 2015. Harris took command at PACOM in May, and by October he obtained permission to have the destroyer Lassen make a close pass of a Chinese construction on Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands, a move that challenged China's maritime claims and asserted freedom of the seas in that area. The patrol aggravated China, and again put the country's island-building campaign on center stage internationally. There would be more FONOPs to come, however.

Harris's tireless campaign to draw attention to China's actions in the South China Sea gradually convinced the Obama administration, which began taking a much harder line with China during its waning days, some observers say.

"I think over the course of the later days of the Obama Administration, they came closer to where Adm. Harris started in regards to China," Glaser said.

...
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In China, Harris is largely viewed with deep suspicion. China's government has long sought to undermine him and portray him as out-of-step with U.S. policy towards China — a loose cannon in the Pacific.

"The Chinese have been used to very different kinds of PACOM commanders, they were used to them being a little more low-key," Glaser said. Harris "came out swinging in a very public way."

Part of that is his hawkish views of China's island building and maritime disputes in the region, and part of that is a racist tendency to believe because he's half Japanese, and is acting on their behalf, said Zhiqun Zhu, professor and director of the China Institute at Bucknell University.

"His 'Great Wall of sand' comment on China's reclamation efforts in the South China Sea stings to the Chinese," Zhu said in an email. "He is also perceived to be siding with Japan in the East China Sea dispute.

Zhu said that there is "a racist view in China that Adm. Harris is half-Japanese and is therefore pro-Japan and anti-China."

Harris has also met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is "widely considered by the Chinese as an unrepentant conservative politician who harbors no good feelings towards China," Zhu noted, adding that those meetings don't sit well with some in China.

Harris will be in charge of PACOM for at least another year, meaning that he'll be highly influential in helping guide the new Trump administration's thinking on the region, which has so far been singularly focused on North Korea. Harris's PACOM has drawn up plans to continue to press China on their island construction and excessive maritime claims, which include more freedom of navigation operation. But it's unclear whether anyone at Trump's White House has made that a priority, especially as the administration puts much of its focus on the growing North Korean threat to U.S. allies and the U.S. itself.

Experts who spoke to Navy Times agreed that forming a plan to address China's aggressive behavior in the region and maintaining U.S. commitments there will be a crucial part of Harris' legacy at PACOM.

"Adm. Harris certainly will be known for his views on China," said Michael O'Hanlon, a defense and national security analyst with the Brookings Institution. "Yes they are hawkish but on balance he's kept his cool and U.S. policy has been generally measured. I am not sure I see a long-term vision, however, for where we can realistically curb China's ambitions, where we can learn to live with them, and how we can push back without risking war. So I see it as a fairly good but incomplete agenda. I am also curious to see when the next FONOPs happen, and how, and by what vessel. That's a crucial, unresolved question."
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Blackstone

Brigadier
interestingly Adm. Harry Harris, the military's hard-line commander in the Pacific, comes to Capitol Hill
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I'm no fan of Admiral Harris, because I think he's a typical and dangerous neocon with delusions of remaking the entire developing world in America's image, even through wars (think Senator John McCain). But, the admiral is a patriot, serving his country out of duty and honor, and Xinhua's (i.e., CPC) race-baiting treatment of him is unsavory, uncalled for, and out of bounds.

While Harris regularly cites North Korea as the single greatest threat to peace in the region, for the past two years Harris's name is more deeply tied with the standoff with China's maritime claims in the East and South China seas. In China, the 60-year-old U.S. Naval Academy graduate is widely distrusted, and his half-Japanese heritage has made him the target of racism in Chinese state media. At one point, the state outlet Xinhua claimed he is taking Japan's side in maritime disputes because of his "blood, background, political inclination and values."
 
Yesterday at 8:05 AM
interestingly Adm. Harry Harris, the military's hard-line commander in the Pacific, comes to Capitol Hill
...
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and now I read PACOM to Conduct South China Sea FONOPs ‘Soon,’ But Also Needs China To Help With North Korea
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Complex situations in the Asia-Pacific region have forced the United States to both rely on China as a partner in deescalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula and admonish as an aggressor, with the U.S. vowing to push back with upcoming Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea and pushing other countries to do the same, U.S. Pacific Command commander Adm. Harry Harris told lawmakers today.

Harris called China “aggressive” and said the country does not “seem to respect the international agreements they’ve signed.” Although last year a
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tribunal rejected China’s claim to the “nine-dash line” – a territorial claim that encompasses most of the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands – “despite being a signatory to the convention, China ignored this legally binding peaceful arbitration. In fact, China continues its methodical strategy to control the South China Sea.”

Not only is China building up artificial islands, it is also militarizing them despite previous assurances it wouldn’t do so. These islands can now support long-range missiles, aircraft hangars, radar towers and barracks for troops, the PACOM commander said, adding “China’s militarization of the South China Sea is real.”

The U.S. does not officially take sides in territorial disputes, but Harris said the U.S. military would be taking steps to push back against Chinese actions in the South China Sea and would be urging other regional partners to do the same.

On U.S. Freedom of Navigation operations, Harris said “I think we’ll be doing some soon.”

On South China Sea neighbors such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam, Harris said “I think we need to encourage them to stand up to China and we need to backstop them where we can, especially with countries we’re allied with.”

Despite this tension with China, dealing with North Korea will require U.S. cooperation with Beijing. Harris said North Korea’s ongoing missile tests and nuclear tests are an urgent international threat, noting “this week North Korea threatened Australia with a nuclear strike, a powerful reminder to the entire international community that North Korea’s missiles point in every direction.”

“With every test, Kim Jung Un moves closer to his stated goal of a preemptive nuclear strike capability against American cities,” Harris said.
“Defending our homeland is my top priority, so I must assume that Kim Jung Un’s nuclear claims are true – I know his aspirations certainly are.”

Due to the urgent nature of the North Korean problem, “that’s why we continue to call on China to exert its considerable economic influence to stop Pyongyang’s unprecedented weapons testing. While recent actions by Beijing are encouraging and welcome, the fact remains that China is as responsible for where North Korea is today as North Korea itself.”

Harris added that the international community needed a range of credible military and diplomatic solutions, but he made clear that “we want to bring Kim Jung-Un to his senses, not to his knees.”
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
An Australian think tank wants the Trump administration to draw China a redline in the South China Sea at Scarborough Shoal. The phrase "you (Beijing) shall not pass" was the bottom line. But, what exactly does that mean? I assume the author doesn't mean the black knight from Monty Python.

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Recently, a senior Vietnamese official asked Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in Phnom Penh if negotiations with ASEAN on a South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) would be completed by the end of the year. Mr Wang and his officials laughed it off, a Southeast Asian diplomat told me. A Vietnamese observer said he felt sorry for ASEAN. ‘They are just using the code of conduct to buy time.’

Chinese cynicism about the COC belies apparent progress. In August 2016—a month after the historic Hague ruling on Manila’s case against Beijing—ASEAN and China
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on a hotline for maritime emergencies and a joint declaration applying the Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea to the South China Sea. Last month, Mr Wang
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a draft COC had been completed. China will host a meeting with ASEAN in May to come up with a preliminary agreement on a COC framework.

It’s important to note that China’s apparent willingness to accelerate talks on the code comes after 15 years trying to turn the 2002 Declaration of the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) into a COC. But even if China and ASEAN agree on a COC, questions will remain over its effectiveness.

First, it’s not certain what geographical area the COC would cover. Neither is it clear if there’d be a punitive element in it. Second, China uses the COC to deflect criticism over its reclamation and militarisation of maritime features. The most recent effort to push ahead with the COC came a month after the Hague ruling.

The issue is that China is against the idea of a COC and it believes other claimants have not been adhering to the DOC. Speaking to Singaporean journalists in 2012, then-vice foreign minister Fu Ying
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that there was little point in forging ahead with a COC ’when the DOC is not faithfully observed.’ (no matter that China has ignored the fact that its activities in the South China Sea since 2013 far exceed those of the other claimants). Likewise, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi
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in 2014 that China was open to launching discussions on the COC if there was full compliance with the DOC by all parties.

At best, the COC would only put a brake on China’s extensive reclamation and militarisation. No one disputes that ASEAN’s provided much-needed stability and prosperity in the region. But its effectiveness at dealing with ‘hard’ security issues such as the South China Sea, is being challenged. That goes back to 2102 when ASEAN failed to issue a communique on Beijing’s activities in the South China Sea. China was seen to have influenced Cambodia, the ASEAN chair, to stop the release of a statement, underscoring Beijing’s willingness to use friends within ASEAN to achieve its goals.

Indonesia, the putative head of the grouping, appears to have turned inward. Recently, a senior Indonesian official told a group of scholars and businessmen that Jakarta deemed President Donald Trump’s approach to China and the South China Sea to be ‘critical’. But he cautioned that Indonesia would adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach, instead of taking the lead on the disputes. Last month, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Panjaitan
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Indonesia did not envisage joint patrols in the South China Sea with Australia.

Singapore, which has taken an even-handed approach to the South China Sea disputes, stressing the need to comply with international law, came under pressure from China which held nine Singaporean infantry combat vehicles in Hong Kong last year. No wonder, attention has turned to the Trump administration which expressed support for allies such as Japan and South Korea, the adoption of a harder approach towards China and a plan to build up the US Navy.

But by killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Trump has kicked out a key pillar of America’s presence in the Asia-Pacific. Lastly, there seems to be little or no policy innovation when it comes to pushing back China in the South China Sea. If the Obama administration suffered from paralysis from analysis—over-thinking Chinese responses to US actions in the South China Sea—the Trump administration’s paralysis stems from a lack of analysis. Hundreds of positions in the State Department and Pentagon remain unstaffed.

Washington needs to establish a red line at Scarborough Shoal which China seized from the Philippines in 2012. It was
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last month that China will begin work on an environment monitoring station there. The fear is that China will start dredging, followed by militarisation, thus creating a
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connecting Woody Island, the Spratlys chain and Scarborough Shoal that would dominate most of the South China Sea.

Four years of talk about international law and the need for a rules-based regional order has not stopped Beijing’s building projects there. Earlier this month, it was Trump who
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Barack Obama’s 2012 red line in Syria, by launching cruise missile attacks at a Syrian airfield which had carried out a chemical gas attack. Given China’s show of strength in the South China Sea, it’s time for Donald Trump to declare of Scarborough Shoal: ‘You shall not pass.’
 
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