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Jeff Head said:

History is what it is...but at those time frames, the Vietnamese were not prepared or able to use what they had and it told in the outcomes.

Times have changed for both Navuesin that regard.

Everythig I have heard, some of it from friend in the US Navy, tells me that the Vietnamese Navy has made great strides in its professionalism and capabilities.

The vessels they are putting together could nt hope to prevail against the entire PLAN fleet...but they are not meant to.

They are meant to send a message that if the PLAN wants to resort to force, the Vietnamese would make it very expensive for them.

As to who is protecting whose rocks and islands, I am sure that the same could be siad against both sides by the other. IOW< the Vietnamese think that they are defending their own rocks and islands...the Chnese thinjk thast they are theirs...and that is the whole crux of the matter.

Vietnam is spending money to bolster and puntuate its interpretation and feelings about the islands they do psses...just as CHina is doing with those she posses.

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Yeah but China could make it more painful and expensive for the Vietnamese as well, plus the PLAN can afford to recover any losses, meanwhile Vietnam can't. So whatever "messages" that the Vietnamese think that they're sending is pretty much moot. Yes times has changed and the Vietnamese armed forces has somewhat improved IMO, but it's not enough. In the end if there is (We all hope not of course) numbers with quality always wins out.

Right now improvments but not big for Vietnam, Gepard are not powerful combattants, build Missile Boats, 48 Su-27/30 others new weapons as SS-C-5 in limited qty this country is not rich with a very big population... only real ramp up i see are the 6 Kilos, never a country acquired a true Flotilla in 2/3 years.

With these new equipments Vietnam can defend oneself but not a robust and need much more for get a serious Army, in this area Singapore do really better Mil. Forces enough small ofc but 1st quality as Israel.

Equation said:

So whatever "messages" that the Vietnamese think that they're sending is pretty much moot.

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I do not think so. With the eyes of the world on the SCS, if China made a move on Vietnamese possessions, and particularly if it became very expensive for the Chinese, they would lose face and respect in the eyes of others.

China does not want this.

So, if the Vietnamese keep building their forces with the types of items I see them purchasing...those items that would make it expensive for the Chinese...they can probably avoid a military conflict.

Sort of like any nation that arms itself for deterrence.

Equation said:

Yeah but China could make it more painful and expensive for the Vietnamese as well, plus the PLAN can afford to recover any losses, meanwhile Vietnam can't.

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That's not necessarily the case.

If they hurt China badly enough, as I said above, the downside would be what the rest of the world sees and China cannot afford to make a misstep.

If they take it that far with one nation (like Vietnam), then you have the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and other local nations who will get very nervous and start reaching out to places like the US, Australia, India, and even Japan to help them.

Some of that is already happening. and China does not want to do anything tht will prooke or invite more of it.

If you look at recent exercises between nations, several of them have involved those specific nations together (US, India, Australia, and Japan). There is a reason for that...they are sending a message to the smaller nations that basically says, "If you need help, we are here for you."

The Chinese planners understand this very well and they will be very careful not to take an action that will enhance that type of attitude.

Jeff Head said:

I do not think so. With the eyes of the world on the SCS, if China made a move on Vietnamese possessions, and particularly if it became very expensive for the Chinese, they would lose face and respect in the eyes of others.

China does not want this.

So, if the Vietnamese keep building their forces with the types of items I see them purchasing...those items that would make it expensive for the Chinese...they can probably avoid a military conflict.

Sort of like any nation that arms itself for deterrence.

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You are overestimating the Vietnamese advantage here. This is a sea conflict over a sovereignty issue in which almost anyone living there except for garrison troops. This is different from say Crimea between Russia and the Ukraine where there are actually civilian and military deaths. This so called "China could lose face thingy" is only popular in the western media and anyone who are against China. China has a much larger armed forces, economy, and geopolitical influences than Vietnam. The Vietnamese could only afford to build so much and than stop due to budgetary constraints. China is Vietnam number one trading partner and NO the US and other so called western allies could never replace the amount of trade they get from China (Taiwan as well). As a result Vietnam can't afford to lose good relations with China.

Jeff Head said:

If they take it that far with one nation (like Vietnam), then you have the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and other local nations who will get very nervous and start reaching out to places like the US, Australia, India, and even Japan to help them.

Some of that is already happening. and China does not want to do anything that will provoke or invite more of it.

If you look at recent exercises between nations, several of them have involved those specific nations together (US, India, Australia, and Japan). There is a reason for that...they are sending a message to the smaller nations that basically says, "If you need help, we are here for you."

The Chinese pklanners understand this very well and they will be very careful not to take an action that will enhance that type of attitude.

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[/QUOTE]

Than China could do the same to the US, India, Australia and Japan by helping out any kind group or forces that are enemies to them. China already got Russia in a closer relationship than the Western power ever want to see.

The so called other ASEAN nations "getting nervous" is an over exaggeration and geopolitical drama as an excuse to paint the PRC as a bad guy, but that so far did fair so well. As we have seen other ASEAN nations such as Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos have are either neutral or with China. Even the citizens among ALL of ASEAN a lot of them does NOT have the same "nervousness" feelings about the PRC like the media portrays it to be.

Equation said:

You are overestimating the Vietnamese advantage here. This is a sea conflict over a sovereignty issue in which almost anyone living there except for garrison troops. This is different from say Crimea between Russia and the Ukraine where there are actually civilian and military deaths. This so called "China could lose face thingy" is only popular in the western media and anyone who are against China. China has a much larger armed forces, economy, and geopolitical influences than Vietnam. The Vietnamese could only afford to build so much and than stop due to budgetary constraints. China is Vietnam number one trading partner and NO the US and other so called western allies could never replace the amount of trade they get from China (Taiwan as well). As a result Vietnam can't afford to lose good relations with China.

...

Then China could do the same to the US, India, Australia and Japan by helping out any kind group or forces that are enemies to them. China already got Russia in a closer relationship than the Western power ever want to see.

The so called other ASEAN nations "getting nervous" is an over exaggeration and geopolitical drama as an excuse to paint the PRC as a bad guy, but that so far did fair so well. As we have seen other ASEAN nations such as Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos have are either neutral or with China. Even the citizens among ALL of ASEAN a lot of them does NOT have the same "nervousness" feelings about the PRC like the media portrays it to be.

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I think that the PRC does not wnt to try and out produce or ut maneuver all of the other nations together that make up ASEAN, and particularly not the US, Japan, Korea, India, and Australia.

They will not be able to do so.

China knows his and it maneuvers will be carefully crafted NOT to create a situation where they and Russia and the very few other nations they might influence in this way have take any actions that solidify or influence ASEAN and those five nations to become committed to banding together against the PRC.

It's a very precarious dance and balancing act and I personally believe, as with TAiwan, thet China is muc better off focusing on imprving the possessions that they have (as they are doing) without ausing or pushing any over military actions regarding them, and allowing their own steady progress economically wit the market to slowly continue to make those other nations more and more dependent on trade with CHina and the product that China produces. That may take several more decades, but if China can manage to do that without any sort of major military hostility pushing those nations towards stronger military alliances and arms races she will have a far better chance to grow into the type of power and influence that she desures in the Western Pacific.


But that's just my own opinion.

Looks like the Russian HGV for ICBM including the new RS-28 Sarmat is almost ready. This was 1st tested on November 1st, 2005. More than 10-years of testing. RT-2PM2 Topol-M can carry a single glider while RS-24 Yars, RSM-56 Bulava could carry multiple gliders. Considering the threat of ever growing US BMD around the world, this is a critical step for the Russians. So congrats is in order:



PS:

Hopefully PRC won't take 10-years of testing for DF-ZF. Having a much smaller number of nuclear warheads and ICBM, the DF-ZF is critical. The single warhead DF-31A even with pen-aids, is vulnerable to US BMD. DF-31A/B with up to 3-warheads, and DF-41 up to 10-warheads will improve the 2nd strike capability but future BMD will carry multiple exoatmospheric kill-vehicles. IMHO sooner the DF-ZF comes in the better the deterrence.

Jeff Head said:

I think that the PRC does not wnt to try and out produce or ut maneuver all of the other nations together that make up ASEAN, and particularly not the US, Japan, Korea, India, and Australia.

They will not be able to do so.

China knows his and it maneuvers will be carefully crafted NOT to create a situation where they and Russia and the very few other nations they might influence in this way have take any actions that solidify or influence ASEAN and those five nations to become committed to banding together against the PRC.

It's a very precarious dance and balancing act and I personally believe, as with TAiwan, thet China is muc better off focusing on imprving the possessions that they have (as they are doing) without ausing or pushing any over military actions regarding them, and allowing their own steady progress economically wit the market to slowly continue to make those other nations more and more dependent on trade with CHina and the product that China produces. That may take several more decades, but if China can manage to do that without any sort of major military hostility pushing those nations towards stronger military alliances and arms races she will have a far better chance to grow into the type of power and influence that she desures in the Western Pacific.


But that's just my own opinion.

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But China is not ALL wrapped up in that "precarious dance and balancing act" as so many naysayers, doubters and doom sayers would like to believe. If it is, it wouldn't have pursue greater power status in the first place after WW2. That is my main point and opinion. China is not destined by the whatever status quo the West wants it to be.

Jeff Head said:

I think that the PRC does not wnt to try and out produce or ut maneuver all of the other nations together that make up ASEAN, and particularly not the US, Japan, Korea, India, and Australia.

They will not be able to do so.

China knows his and it maneuvers will be carefully crafted NOT to create a situation where they and Russia and the very few other nations they might influence in this way have take any actions that solidify or influence ASEAN and those five nations to become committed to banding together against the PRC.

It's a very precarious dance and balancing act and I personally believe, as with TAiwan, thet China is muc better off focusing on imprving the possessions that they have (as they are doing) without ausing or pushing any over military actions regarding them, and allowing their own steady progress economically wit the market to slowly continue to make those other nations more and more dependent on trade with CHina and the product that China produces. That may take several more decades, but if China can manage to do that without any sort of major military hostility pushing those nations towards stronger military alliances and arms races she will have a far better chance to grow into the type of power and influence that she desures in the Western Pacific.


But that's just my own opinion.

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Well, China doesn't have to do any pushing and others can still pursue military postures and arms buildups to push China, not to mention exclusionary trade deals or embargos.

An interesting map

Saturday at 11:00 AM

Jura said:

...

(602, 603 most recently crossed the Bosphorus on their way to the Med:

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... and most recently started the drill there:
(link to the Russian Ministry Facebook Profile; corresponding picture:
I noticed in Russian Internet

kinda speculation they'll lob the Kalibrs against Aleppo ... let's wait and see