The PLA of 2015

Ooo, a nice thread to punch in the following:

PLAAF&PLANAF combat aircraft inventory

2010
h6- 40 + 25 + 50 (old ones + modified to carry 2 cruise missiles + newly built to carry 4 missiles)
h7- 35 + 80 (jh7 + jh7a)
sukhois- 400 (all the sukhois including any possible future purchases plus any variant of j11)
j10- 200 (includes any possible future variant)
j8- 200 (only modified ones or future variants remain)
j7- 200 + 300 (old models + E/G models or possible future variants)

2015
h6- 25 + 100 (old modified ones + newly built ones)
h7- 35 + 150
sukhois- 500
j10- 400
j8- 200
j7- 300

2020
h6- 130
h7- 220
sukhois- 600
j10- 600
j8- 100
j7- 150
jxx- 30

2025
h6/future bomber - 150
h7- 250
sukhois- 550
j10/j10 succesor - 800
jxx- 180

I didn't include Q5s simply because i've no idea what will happen with them. PLAAF seems quite happy with the idea of having a large number of cheap, almost expendable attack planes and i don't see j10s or any other expensive planes taking their role. Jh7 is PLANAF only, anyway. I see 3 possibilities: One that would have Q5 being continuously improved and new airframes built. Second one that would have fc-17 replace the Q5s, and third one where some other plane gets the role to replace the Q5s, possibly some enlarged variation of L-15 or the like.

Finn McCool said:

The US economy might be in trouble in the years to come, but you think China isn't?

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Absolutely not! US economy is in a real shi*hole right now, its gonna fail a lot sooner than you think

Thats a one-liner and heading very close to Nationalist BS - Everybody keep it together or its warning time!

This is where I see the the PLA going in a few years-

The last vestiges of "People's War" are shed, and with go many of the PLA's divisions. The PLA re-orients itself to become the military of an economic superpower, one that, at heart, defends economic interests, like the US military now or the British military before that. In order to fufill this role, the PRC devotes more money and effort to the PLAN, and by 2015 the PLAN is equipped with the Varyag and two other carriers. They are not necessisariy as large or as powerful as a Nimitz class, but they can fly fighters and strike aircraft as well as serve as a base for ampihbious action beyond Taiwan. The PLAN also has a helicopter carrier to help increase its deployment and ASW capabilites. The PLAN pursues a different direction to deal with any threats posed by the US. It invests in FACs, subs and more accurate and fast ballistic and cruise missles in order to bombard a US CBG with missles, in an attempt to overwhelm its SAM defences. The PLAN higher-ups call it "asymmetric naval warfare". The PLA Marine Corps is greatly enlarged and is well on its way to becoming a force that can do much more than simply land on Taiwan. A true global power needs to be able to land on any beach and have a reliable, fast acting expeditionary force, and that is what the PLA Marines will become for China. Finally, the PLAN produces many 052 class DDGs or equivalent ships.

The PLA "lays off" many of its ground troops, decreasing in size in order to devote more resources to a more professional core. The PLA maintains a few divisions of ill-trianed conscripts (you never know when you might need them), but on the whole becomes a more professional force, armed with T-80s and 90s as well as large numbers of Type-99s. The Chinese army gains foreign bases in Pakistan, Iran, and Thailand, sharing the Thai and Pakistani bases with the PLAAF.

As previously mentioned, the PLAAf gains several bases outside of China. It also focuses on air-refueling and stealth capability. It is the best air-force in Asia, but is rivaled by India. Probably it will have a stealth plane, probably the J-XX (when is it scheduled for completion?) and should (but probably won't) develop a dedicated ground attack plane and helicopter.

That's basically where I think the PLA will go. It focuses on global reach necessary for an economic superpower and the brute force necessary for a country that is reigionally dominant but has rivals.

About the economic thing, China will also face more tangible consequences from its economic growth, such as labor problems, enviromental issues and, most importantly, an insatiable demand for oil. The US is far ahead of China in renewable energy, but there is no political will to get it done. If the US could get some, than it would have a major economic edge of not just China but the rest of the world.

armed with T-80s and 90s as well as large numbers of Type-99s.

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I don't think the PLA will want to purchase T-80s and T-90s. They have the Type-96, which has roughly the same capabilities as a T-80 and at around the same cost too, I believe. Correct me if I am wrong, for I am not certain.

I don't think the PLA will want to purchase T-80s and T-90s. They have the Type-96, which has roughly the same capabilities as a T-80 and at around the same cost too, I believe. Correct me if I am wrong, for I am not certain.

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Yes you are rite, I been working exclusively with the Type 96 and 99. I have not recieve any infomation about the PLA planing to been equipped with any Russian Tank.
The PLA has a very large supply of spare part for these tank.
That about as much as I could said.

From what I remember, the PLA already has quite a few T-80s and 90s, so I just put them in there, figuring that they'd be able to do more with better forces to support them and an equivalent MBT (the type 96 and 99).

I really think the PLA needs a good attack 'copter or attack airplane like the A-10.

From what I remember, the PLA already has quite a few T-80s and 90s, so I just put them in there, figuring that they'd be able to do more with better forces to support them and an equivalent MBT (the type 96 and 99).

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I am pretty sure the PLA dun have any operational T-80 and 90. There might be a few of them use for reverse engineering.
I'll try to confirmed it for you.

I really think the PLA needs a good attack 'copter or attack airplane like the A-10.

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This I agree with you

Your right, the PLA does not have any T-80s or 90s. I thought they did have a bunch though. Whatever.

Having a good attack copter and a dedicated ground attack plane, like the A-10 or the Tornado (tank killing or other stuff, depending on what you need.) allows you to do a lot of things. It would greatly increase their capability to attack Taiwan or conduct other amphibious operations, because being able to spray a beach with guns and rockets and take out artillery and armoured vehicles with guided missles and still survive is something that the PLA must have to be successful on Taiwan, or elsewhere, if it is going to land against a strong defense and not take massive casualties. Both helicopters and deidicated attack planes would be useful in a smaller war as well. We can see this from Iraq. Against guerilla fighters and in urban enviroments an attack helicopter is very useful. It prevents them from being able to concentrate and allows you to put a lot of ordanance on them very fast. The main advantage an attack helicopter has in that situation over any plane that the PLAAF has is that it can get close to the ground and stay in one place, providing cover for infantry, aiding in situational awareness adding an extra dimension of danger to everything the enemy does, as opposed to a jet streaking past, bombing a single target and being gone again in about 5 seconds.

I think it's fair to conclude that China keeps a very close lid on its military projects. Projects that are theoretical and experimental are simply not revealed. I think all the projects we are talking about here (like the J-XX) will see the light of day by the end of the decade at most. After that, they will become mass produced between the year 2010 and 2015. So the cutting edge projects we're talking about now will be mainstream equipment by 2015. But there will be other cutting edge projects that we don't know anything about now. (Maybe some like the DD(X)? Or a global strike capability?) Those probably won't see the light of day until 2015 or later.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I don't think the PLA will want to purchase T-80s and T-90s. They have the Type-96, which has roughly the same capabilities as a T-80 and at around the same cost too, I believe. Correct me if I am wrong, for I am not certain.

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The type 96's armor might not be as capable as the latest t-80UM's. The t-80 might also have a lead in sensors. But in general, there about the same. for the PLA, indigenous usually takes priority over imported. notice how the PLA operates extremly few russian weapons compared ot the PLAN and PLAAF.

The 99 definitly pwns the t-80/90.