UK Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

SampanViking said:

Which country would lend us money given our current credit rating just to build or buy boys toys?

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1. You don't buy debt for individual projects. You buy debt generally because you think you can make money out of it or at least it will be secure. The government decides what it's spent on.

2. The credit rating is .

especially if these countries perceive that they are the ones that such weapons will be primarily directed against!

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Which major debt-buying nations does the UK's foreign policy clash with to such a point where they would refuse to buy any gilts just because we were buying aircraft carriers?

That is the reality of what is happening and it is about time that people wake up and realise it!

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I think you need to switch your coffee to decaffeinated - you're overreacting.

I take it then you do not remember the last time we had to go to the IMF?

The current borrowing requirement of £600 Billion over the next 5 years is based on a disingenuous treasury forecast that nobody believes. A continued deep recession could easily double the borrowing requirement (a small fall in GDP equates to a massive decrease in tax yields, just as a small fall in gross turnover can smash or wipe out corporate profits) and nobody would be prepared to lend to us under those conditions as the yields on Gilts would need to be so high that tax rises would kill any hope of a recovery and that is before any consideration of the danger of the return of very high inflation.

Military spending is not going to be a priority except perhaps to get all our forces home pronto in case they are needed to patrol the streets of British Cities.

Sampan, if you want to talk about what is likely to happen/may happen with economics then I think we're getting too far off-topic. Perhaps you could start a thread on the global crisis, but otherwise I'd like to get back to talking about the UK military specifically.

Well how can you have a serious discussion of the UK military if you ignore that an H Bomb had just detonated inside the country's finances?

Rather than talk grandly about procuring this and that I suggest you prepare yourself for a series of savage cuts to current budgets and capabilities of a magnitude even greater than that suffered in the 80's under options for change.

The only reason that you are not seeing huge areas being dismembered already is because we are now in the run up to the next general election. From no later than June 2010 however, be prepared for the carnage to begin.

I'm sure the reasury will want to make massive cuts to defence, but their problem is what can they cut? The armed forces have already been cut to below minimum levels during the times of plenty; there is no fat left to cut. Not much muscle either for that matter, just bone and marrow. The big projects that are usually pointed at cannot be cut as simply as many think. If the money has already been spent then cancellation brings no savings and in fact incurs cost, Typhoon being a case in point. The treasury are currently throwing a hissy fit about T3 as if that will make a difference, but they have no choice other than to pay up. The penalty clauses mean there are no savings to be made by not ordering the aircraft, so the treasury's behaviour smacks of being in denial. As mentioned previously the carriers are safe too, as GB apparently wants to keep his job fo a while yet. Again the money for them has mostly already been spent, and the CVF deal is one contract for two ships plus the reorganisation of the shipbuilding industry, so talk of only one carrier being built don't stand up to scrutiny.

The MOD has done the only thing they can by slowing down the construction schedule to spread the cost over a couple more years. I think this is a clue to the form of the savings, projects will be delayed further without being cancelled outright. Also remember that the UK defence budget is one of the smallest of all the government departments, so if there are any significant savings to made any cuts to defence will be a drop in the ocean by comparison. Cutting defence work means higher unempolyment and a larger welfare bill, whereas investing in defence projects helps to keep the economy afloat, far better than handing over untold billions of pounds to greedy bankers so they can salt it away in their pension funds and retire early.:nono:

SampanViking said:

Well how can you have a serious discussion of the UK military if you ignore that an H Bomb had just detonated inside the country's finances?

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There's a difference between discussing what pressures the Forces will face and going on about the last Labour government that went to the IMF.

Anyway, as Obi Wan says, the defence budget takes up much less spending as a percentage of the total than it used to. There are lots of penalty clauses in projects like Eurofighter and CVF, and the carriers have already had a very large amount of money handed over. Plus the loss of jobs et al that would come with cancellation.

If anything feels the heat it will be things like the A400M because it's Airbus who can't deliver and the UK could get out of the contract. Also, as much as poor old FRES has had a stop-start-stop-start history that's also a prime candidate for delay if not temporary cancellation.

This whole A400M issue is just a fiasco. While I actually strongly favor the capability to produce large transport aircraft in europe, we are at a point were even EADS/Airbus should perhaps feel some consequences. And the airlift issue is a really pressing one for europes armed forces.



MoD: Britain Wants A400M, 'But Not at Any Cost'

By andrew chuter
Published: 13 May 2009 14:29

LONDON - Airbus Military has told the British government it expects the delayed A400M airlifter will make its maiden flight no later than February, the Ministry of Defence reported May 13.

In a response to a recent report on procurement from the Parliament's Defence Committee, the MoD said the delay means the earliest in-service date for the aircraft with the Royal Air Force would be 2014.

The U.K. remains committed to A400M, but not at any cost," the MoD said in a statement. "We are considering all potential outcomes."

First deliveries of the A400M to lead customer France were originally scheduled this year, but development has been bogged down by a string of setbacks with the aircraft and its turboprop engines.

A seven-nation partnership - Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain and Turkey - signed a deal with Airbus in 2003 to develop the aircraft. These countries and export customers Malaysia and South Africa have ordered some 192 aircraft.

The partner nations are midway through a three-month moratorium imposed at the end of March as they seek to find a way forward on the program with Airbus in a bid to stop some countries from heading for the exit.

Britain has been touted by some as the most likely nation to cancel the program, turning to the United States to acquire airlifters instead.

The MoD response said it was considering a number of options to close the capability gap resulting from the delay, including "an extension to the life of the C-130K fleet and leasing or procuring additional C-17 and C-130J capacity."

The U.K. Royal Air Force has been looking to bolster its C-17 fleet with another two aircraft regardless of the outcome of the A400M deliberations. The original plan was to buy one aircraft this year and another next year. With the MoD's equipment budget under huge pressure, though, it is unclear whether that plan remains in place.
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The UK made another step towards procuring the third tranche of Eurofighter aircraft. Hopefully, we can now move along and finalize that decission for all four nations. It would be a big and necessary step for the technology base and self reliance, IMO.



Britain To Buy 3rd Batch of Typhoons

By andrew chuter
Published: 14 May 2009 06:48

LONDON - Britain has confirmed it will proceed with the purchase of a third batch of Typhoon combat aircraft. The future of the Ministry of Defence's involvement in the pan-European program has been in doubt for months as it attempts to cut equipment spending to match its budget.

The MoD said it hoped to sign the contract for the third and final batch of aircraft, known as Tranche 3, later this year once negotiations with Typhoon builder Eurofighter had been completed.

Defence Secretary John Hutton said in a statement May 14 that the final decision is subject to satisfactory negotiations over the cost of procurement and support of the aircraft.

"We look forward to receiving an affordable bid from European industry that will allow us to proceed," said Hutton.

The MoD said it will now initial the ministerial agreement which the partner nations Germany, Italy and Spain signed April 2.

The agreement contains a statement of principles, including the need to achieve significant through-life savings. The statement is also believed to endorse an arrangement which will allow the Tranche 3 buy to be split into two parts as well as allow the British to include some of the 2007 Saudi Typhoon export contract as part of its Tranche 3 commitment.

The announcement was given a guarded welcome by Society of British Aerospace Companies (SBAC) chief executive Ian Gooden

"We are pleased that the Government has confirmed its intention to participate in tranche 3," Gooden said. "This is a significant step to confirm the future of the program and the capabilities that it will provide for our armed forces.

However, it does not remove fully some of the uncertainty over the long-term future of this program, which supports thousands of U.K. jobs, particularly in the North West of England."

At peak production the program help sustains around 16,000 jobs in the British aerospace industry.

The British have several times tried to wriggle out of the legally binding commitment signed by the partner nations in 1997 to purchase a total of 620 aircraft.

Withdrawal would have cost the British billions of pounds in penalty payments and a huge loss in workshare on the program. Britain has a 37 percent share in Typhoon work.

The irony is the tightly worded contract was drawn up at the insistence of the British in order to stop the Germans pulling out of the program.

Now, however, Germany is setting the pace. It is pushing to have the deal tied up in time to present its budget proposals to parliament for approval by late June ahead of lawmakers breaking for the summer.

The fear among industry executives is that with German elections due in September, failure to get the deal okayed next month could delay the program start for several months, sparking a gap in production between the Tranche 2 aircraft now being assembled and the start of Tranche 3.

Executives reckon a break in production could cost as much as 150 million euros a month.

The four partners originally agreed to acquire 236 Typhoons from Eurofighter under the Tranche 3 procurement plan. That is now expected to be divided up with 124 aircraft being ordered in Tranche 3A and the remainder at a later date in 3B.

Britain's Tranche 3 commitment is for 88 aircraft to bring its total purchase up to 232 fighters for the Royal Air Force.

Eurofighter partner BAE Systems sealed a deal with Saudi Arabia to sell 72 Typhoon in 2007. The other industrial partners are EADS and Finmeccanica

The first of 24 Tranche 2 aircraft originally destined for the RAF, but diverted to meet the Saudi Arabia requirement, is scheduled to be handed over next month. The remainder of the aircraft are planned to be assembled in Saudi Arabia.

Nigel Whitehead, the group managing director programs & support, BAE Systems, said he was delighted the government had confirmed go ahead on Tranche 3 production

"This paves the way for a swift conclusion of the negotiations that will enable the contract to be finalized," said Whitehead. "The Typhoon program meets an essential military requirement for the U.K. and is the key driver of the world class capability which exists in this country's military aerospace industry."

News today on the BBC website. Cost of QE class aircraft carriers has risen from 3.9million to 5million, and the project is in a "real fight for survival" !

Looks like the project could be under threat as the shipyard where there being built is apparently under threat of closure !

At the very least a lenghty delay I think !

I hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you so.

It comes less than a week when former head of the British Army General Sir Michael Jackson was on the This Week programme talking with former Defence Minister Michael Portillo and both agreeing that after the next election, irrespective of which party wins, a massive defence spending review would be launched as a priority and big ticket items like the Carriers and even the Independent Nuclear Deterrent likely to be scrapped.

lcortez said:

News today on the BBC website. Cost of QE class aircraft carriers has risen from 3.9million to 5million, and the project is in a "real fight for survival" !

Looks like the project could be under threat as the shipyard where there being built is apparently under threat of closure !

At the very least a lenghty delay I think !

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If two carriers were going to cost £5 million, I think we'd look to expand the fleet a bit more.

I don't believe they're being built at one shipyard - the work is being split between several yards.

Really this is down to the government not putting the facts down on the table early enough. It was happy to say that money would be saved (in the short term) by delaying the build, but it probably knew that in the long run the cost would be higher. Doesn't mean the project is suddenly unaffordable.

If the project goes ahead I doubt there will be a "very lengthy" delay because it will just cost more again (and in a way that it's more expensive in the short-term too). A significant delay on top of the revised schedule would almost certainly mean cancellation.

However, at the moment I'm sceptical of this latest doom-and-gloom report - there have been a number in the last few months. Fact is that the contracts have been signed (who wants to bet that there are no penalty clauses?), £1 billion is soon to have been spent and the project has survived so many attacks on it by the other services, armchair generals (whose mantra of "the wars of yesterday are gone" always get proven wrong every decade or so) lefty hug-a-Taliban brigade and friends that it isn't facing anything new.

Keep an eye open in the next few weeks, as steel is/was due to be cut soon.

Sampan, I'm not surprised that Sir Michael Jackson would say that (sadly there's little service solidarity at the moment thanks to the Treasury). As for Portillo, I'd like to see him suggest to Liam Fox in person that the future Defence Secretary cancel a partly built aircraft carrier! But I think a defence review after the election is likely to work out what the country needs, how it would be best acquired (possibly more off-the-shelf purchases) and how much it will cost.