PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

vesicles said:

Man! talk about ups and downs... I came back and saw the "new photos" of seven J-15 on the CV-16 and got so excited and only to find out a couple pages later that it was fake...

About the lack of info/photos of the CV-16. I concur with most of the posters here in that the most likely "hypothesis" would be an increased security compounded with the fact that the CV-16 is out to sea a lot more than before when it was stuck in dry dock for everyone to see. At this point, it would be virtually impossible for the Chinese govn't and PLAN to back out of the carrier program. I mean, let's face it. the Chinese govn't is NOT an 8-year-old boy who thinks he loves baseball, makes his mom and dad buy all the gear and gets bored after playing a couple games. Like any govn't, they gathered as much info as possible and debated and debated and debated until they made their decision. Once the decision was made, they would be full steam ahead. IMHO, they have long passed the point of no return. They have invested too much of everything, time, money, manpower, pride, for them to back out. At this point, the hypothesis of PLAN backing out of the carrier program is as impossible as the hypothesis that the CV-16 has been abducted by the aliens.

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I'm not here to rub anyone the wrong way, and I am fully prepared to concede I am wrong if things turn out otherwise such as if that picture was real, but I don't think a correct read of China's strategies and circumstances today will have the carrier program as a priority.

My hypothesis is not that China completely abandons their carrier program but that the Liaoning is going to continue to be the sole Chinese carrier for many years to come. While I am sure they will make full use of it to hone their carrier operations, expanding the carrier program will very much be on the backburner until the rest of the PLA and China's security environment are at the point where Chinese carriers can be leveraged to make a meaningful difference in combat without undue sacrifice. By that I mean the time when a Chinese carrier can survive and play a productive part in a hot war with top tier opponents without China having to compromise elsewhere in its defenses to effectively deploy the carrier.

In order to get to that point there are plenty of other things the PLA and China have to work on so it makes no sense that they would make the carrier program a priority, especially since carriers have a very specialized role and are not very useful outside of that.

PanAsian said:

I'm not here to rub anyone the wrong way, and I am fully prepared to concede I am wrong if things turn out otherwise such as if that picture was real, but I don't think a correct read of China's strategies and circumstances today will have the carrier program as a priority.

My hypothesis is not that China completely abandons their carrier program but that the Liaoning is going to continue to be the sole Chinese carrier for many years to come. While I am sure they will make full use of it to hone their carrier operations, expanding the carrier program will very much be on the backburner until the rest of the PLA and China's security environment are at the point where Chinese carriers can be leveraged to make a meaningful difference in combat without undue sacrifice. By that I mean the time when a Chinese carrier can survive and play a productive part in a hot war with top tier opponents without China having to compromise elsewhere in its defenses to effectively deploy the carrier.

In order to get to that point there are plenty of other things the PLA and China have to work on so it makes no sense that they would make the carrier program a priority, especially since carriers have a very specialized role and are not very useful outside of that.

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Any Carrier battle groups are more prone to attack with more modern and advance weapons systems of all kinds these days.

PanAsian said:

I
In order to get to that point there are plenty of other things the PLA and China have to work on so it makes no sense that they would make the carrier program a priority, especially since carriers have a very specialized role and are not very useful outside of that.

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In order for the Chinese carrier NOT to be a sitting duck, PLAN needs to set the carrier program as a priority. Setting it as a priority and actively perfecting CV operations (all aspects of it, including air wings AND escort and support) as much as they can would be the only way to strengthen their overall naval capability. Leaving the carrier alone while focusing on other equipment will cause their naval development to become unbalanced, i.e. all the support and escort but no star to tentpole the whole show.

Yes, the CV-16 is now weak. But don't you think the only way to correct your weakness is to focus on it and tackle it head-on? Ignoring it won't make it better. Yes, there are ways to "go around it" without a carrier. But those would be just temporary solutions to a permanent problem. A true blue water navy needs strong and highly effective CVG's. There is no alternative to it. It's better to start early and climb that learning curve than later. As you mentioned here:

PanAsian said:

My hypothesis is not that China completely abandons their carrier program but that the Liaoning is going to continue to be the sole Chinese carrier for many years to come. While I am sure they will make full use of it to hone their carrier operations, expanding the carrier program will very much be on the backburner until the rest of the PLA and China's security environment are at the point where Chinese carriers can be leveraged to make a meaningful difference in combat without undue sacrifice. By that I mean the time when a Chinese carrier can survive and play a productive part in a hot war with top tier opponents without China having to compromise elsewhere in its defenses to effectively deploy the carrier.

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So you also agree that they should eventually have carriers. Then don't you think it would be better for them start practicing as soon as they could? And by the time they have all the equipment in place (the hardware), their training, system integration and tactics (software) will also be place. I think we all agree that the software part, all the training the system integration, is as important and takes as long as the hardware. It would simply take way too long if they wait until all the systems are in place and then begin carrier ops... This kind of linear way of doing things just makes no sense...

Pan, I have been involved with Naval Matters for decades...as the son of a World War II US Naval combat officer...as the son of a very talented and well known (in those circles) US Navy aircraft engineer (my Dad who went into that field after World War II)....as someone who himself has worked on Naval weapons systems in my own engineering career, and as the father-in-law of a career US naval officer.

We have people on this forum, notably Popeye and Kwaig, who themselves have been stationed on carriers for decades in US naval service..

Believe me when I tell you (and I believe that they will agree with me), that with the investments the PRC has already made in the following:

1) Buying and refurbishing the old Russian Varyag.
2) Outfitting and launching the PLAN Liaoning, CV-16.
3) Manning and training the Liaoning.
4) Developing, designing, and protyping and testing their own Naval Strike Fighter, J-15.
5) Moving the J-15 into production status.
6) Building and maintaining a dedicated Carrier research facility at Wuhan.
7) Building a dedicated naval aviation training center.
8) Building two separate docking/basing facilities for PLAN carriers.
9) Exercising the Liaoning as they have done.

...which amount to billions of US dollars...the PRC has already made the statement that the PLAN carrier program is a very high defense priority and is not on the back burner in the least.

When you consider that they have accomplished all of this...not to mention the development of suitable escort vessels for the carrier...in the last ten years. it is simply phenomenal.

We have this question come up every so often, when it first came up in 2013, I did the research and posted the the thread about the pretty amazing and comprehensive Naval Avitaion Traing facility that the PLAN built. In Decmember 2014 when it was raised again, I posted this post, in that thread.

Read that post...and then start from the beginning and read the whole thread. And that is just one of those points above.
They are not going to stop...they are not going to put it on a back burner...they are not losing their resolve.

They may not be moving as fast as some would like...but in actuality, given where they were less than ten years ago...as I say, they have made astounding progress.

I believe the second carrier has already started building. I believe that within the year that will be apparent.

Everyone ois definitely free to their own opinions and analysis of the situation...but given my own experience and background, and given what I have seen over the last 12-15 years of watching it closely...that is mine.

Time will tell.

Pan, I think it comes down to two ways of developing the carrier program: (1) the simultaneous parallel development of all systems including carriers and their escorts etc. (favored method by most posters here); (2) linear development of escorts, etc. and THEN carriers (your way). As you can see waiting until all the other systems are in place and THEN developing the carriers would be a very time-consuming and ineffective way of doing things. Plus, doing them in a sequential manner would leave each system unprotected and vulnerable. This would actually be the situation that you described. The only way to prevent such situation to actually to develop everything simultaneously so that all systems can be integrated organically and personnel properly trained.

vesicles said:

(1) the simultaneous parallel development of all systems including carriers and their escorts etc. (favored method by most posters here);

(2) linear development of escorts, etc. and THEN carriers (your way).

The PLAN has the money, the manpower and the resolve to develop all systems simultaneously. This is the most efficient way since they will have to have all of them.

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You are correct my friend.

And as we have seen here on SD, and the point is...for the last ten years...they have been doing them all simultaneously.

I added more to my post above which makes this point abundantly clear.

They are not backing down from this...they are just proceeding according to their own plan.

PanAsian said:

I'm not here to rub anyone the wrong way, and I am fully prepared to concede I am wrong if things turn out otherwise such as if that picture was real, but I don't think a correct read of China's strategies and circumstances today will have the carrier program as a priority.

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Um, I think you should re-read the long post I made before Deino posted the picture, because the whole point I was making is that your position is precarious regardless of how often we get new pictures in the first place.

In other words, the lack of pictures doesn't support your position because one should expect there to be a lack of pictures. Putting it another way:

• Lack of pictures or official announcements =/= Lack of actual development and progress
• Also, official announcements and pictures of PLAN doing XYZ =/= PLAN are only developing or doing XYZ, it just means pictures of PLAN doing XYZ = PLAN willingness to reveal to us they have done XYZ

In fact the above two rules can arguably be applied to all PLA development from carriers, to J-20, to ballistic missiles, to Y-20 and beyond.

Jeff and vesicles have already done a good job of illustrating the evidence and logic of what PLAN investment into carriers over the last decade and more entails, so I won't go into that.

Bltizo said:

... the whole point I was making is that your position is precarious regardless of how often we get new pictures in the first place.

In other words, the lack of pictures doesn't support your position because one should expect there to be a lack of pictures.

... illustrating the evidence and logic of what PLAN investment into carriers over the last decade and more entails, so I won't go into that.

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Yes...despite what we may see or not see, what we HAVE seen already tells the tale.

The PRC/PLAN is ALL IN on the carrier program.

There is just no conceivable way to deny it. The evidence is already there for all to see.

I'm not saying the carrier program is on hiatus nor am I suggesting "linear development", but if working with just the Liaoning alas with all the support facilities is already making the carrier program a priority then I guess it is a priority. But I will truly believe in China's carrier program being a priority when they come out with a second carrier, and I think that is many years away.

PanAsian said:

I'm not saying the carrier program is on hiatus nor am I suggesting "linear development", but if working with just the Liaoning alas with all the support facilities is already making the carrier program a priority then I guess it is a priority. But I will truly believe in China's carrier program being a priority when they come out with a second carrier, and I think that is many years away.

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I'm not sure what defines a priority for you -- does it mean the carrier program needs to occupy a certain proportion of the navy's budget relative to others, does it mean reaching a certain absolute degree of capability, or relative capability?... or does it mean having two carriers rather than one?

And actually a few pages ago, you were exactly claiming that you believed the carrier program was a white elephant for the PLAN or that it would soon be dropped... but of course you're free to change your opinion.
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/pl...ogramme-news-views.t6479/page-359#post-342837