J31 program is military version of Huawei, most griping in US minds.

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by tidalwave, May 22, 2019.

  1. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    Now the getting away from the meat of the last almost half dozen pages.

    FC31 isn’t ready for prime time. The bulk of this is based on conjecture and claims of F35 clone.
    FC31 doesn’t show more than a superficial resemblance on that.
    What we have is the Chinese working on a second demonstration bird with VLO shaping and twin engines.
    The first so far has more threat the J20, which has gotten just as much Hearst print as SU57 or FC31. FC31 gets attention because it looks like F35. Much like how the Russian Buran gets attention because it looks like a space shuttle.

    But if we cut deeper than looks like your average celebrity FC31 is shallow.
    No solids on a new radar, iffy on engines, no solid on IRST or EODAS, not even on cockpit displays, limited examples of full helmet mounted displays. No evidence of towed decoys or defensive aides. It’s not ready. Immature.
    They would have to harvest large technology sets out of J20 to fit FC31 for any form of real conflict at which point why bother? Why not just use J20?
     
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  2. Brumby
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    Totally agree with your view on the J-31. An existential threat requires an entity to emanate properties of a threat. The J-31 is not a ready product - period. Any reference of it as a threat is grounded on an over zealous imagination sprinkled with fantasy dust.

    Regarding even the J-20, very little is known of its actual electronics capability as primarily what is known are driven by claims. The DOD is reporting (issued in May 2019) that both these planes are having difficulty not just only with the engines but also with the radar.

    upload_2019-5-29_10-17-28.png
     
  3. Phead128
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    Phead128 Junior Member

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    Seriously, China needs a stealth naval jet. There is no point to continue building J-15 when F-35s are going to be on board Japanese and American carriers.

    Just put J20 tech into CATOBAR light frame, call it a day already.
     
  4. Brumby
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    Only if it was that easy. I suggest if you want to pursue this angle to move it to the J-31 thread proper. I think we have already gone overtime on this thread.
     
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  5. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    Did you delete my post that was a reply to this post of yours?
     
  6. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    I will answer to this post again more concisely.

    Mao's decision to enter in to the Korean War was, in my opinion, the best decision he has made in his political life.
    Four reasons:
    First one: Stalemate in civil war:

    At the late stages of the 2nd Chinese Civil War, the PLA thrives on the doctrine of "The People's War", which mobilizes the entire populace of its controlled area to contribute to the war effort.

    At that time, the CCP lacked well-established institutional structures to organized the population. Popular support are voluntary and mostly based on two things: one is the people's confidence in the fighting ability of the PLA, the second is the alluring redistribution policies in favor of war-tore refugees and land-less peasants. This organizational structure is NOT INSTITUTIONAL. People's path to participation are orchestrated by propaganda. This means that as soon as the general population's confidence in the PLA's fighting ability diminishes, or the land policy's gain outweight the risks for the individuals; people's participation will sharply diminish.

    As the land warfare draws to an end, the PLA will inevitably face the Taiwan Straight, which will reveal the PLA's weakness in amphibian warfare. This will result in a stalemate. This stalemate will quickly drain Mainland population's confidence in the PLA (thus dealing huge blow to "People's War"), and the CCP will soon face what the KMT faced at the abrupt end of WW2: too big of a land to secure, too few effective advanced government institutions and experienced public servants to effectively govern the land, and rapidly decline troop morale.

    This all happens when the US troops are closing in on the Sino-Korea boarder. If China didn't go into Korea, It would face a Taiwan which couldn't be conquered at the moment, and a US forces at the border right outside its border, ready to pounce into the ONLY industrial base that has the capability to support a modern warfare: Manchuria.
     
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  7. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    Continue to my second reason:

    Korea War happened at a time when China has seen what we call today as "100 years of humiliation". I don't think I have to stress the importance of such a war, and how much it would boost Chinese national confidence. This is a war which, in terms of civilization well being, China has nothing to lose. China was already being known as the "Sick Man of Asia", as MacArthur has termed: "Chinamen can't fight!". Even if Mao lost in Korea, China's war-fighting reputation wouldn't be any worse at the time. Losing against the US and her UN allies won't be unexpected at the time. Besides, the Soviet Red Army was still in Manchuria backing us up.
     
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  8. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    My third reason will sound draconian:

    As the result of the huge PLA victory in the 2nd Chinese Civil War, the PLA has absorbed a large number of defeated/captured former KMT soldiers. The communist and KMT forces back then were different from most of the regular nationalized militaries in the world today. They are first and foremost an ideological army. They care very much about the ideological purity of the individual soldiers, this means that a large scare absorption of captive of forces bares a huge risk of inadequate ideological purity among average soldiers. It will take a lot of propaganda and ideological training time to get them up to standard.

    However, the occurrence of an anti-American war that could arouse nationalistic sentiments are priceless at that moment. Because this will be kill 3 birds with one stone: ethnic-nationalism is the only common ground which both the KMT and the CCP could unite on. Former KMT soldier might be skeptical against all CCP ideology, but in term of ethnic-nationalism, he/she is of the same mind.

    The draconian part is that this war will produce a lot of casualties, and the majority of the of forces that goes to the front lines are full of former KMT soldiers. By being expendable acids, they've earned the right to be called heroes of their new motherland.
     
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  9. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    My fourth reason is the most profound:

    Korean war gave China a new beginning in Sino-Soviet relations as well as forecasting a future Sino-USA relations.

    The Soviet Red Army liberated Manchuria. The also stationed there until the end of the Korean War. It is clear what the USSR want: they don't want a ROC that is the ally of the USA to be so close to their underpopulated Far East. This is why why they turn against their long term ally the ROC (Chiang Kai Shek's son married a Soviet woman), and started taking the CCP's side.

    Without the Korean War, there is no way, neither by force nor by reason, can the CCP get the Soviet Red Army off of Chinese soil. The Korean War is characterized by its ethnic-nationalistic undertone. It is NEVER presented to the PRC public as an ideological war. It was always known as a nationalistic war to Chinese.

    This is alarming and deterring for the USSR, as the Chinese performances in the Korean War make them realize that Chinese can bite very hard and they are very ethnic - nationalistic. They weren't fighting fanatically for communism, they were fanatic for China. This is what prompts the Soviets to withdraw from Dalian, forever ending their physical presence in China. After that war, the USSR can not afford to risk staying in Dalian and provoking Chinese nationalism, as the CCP has demonstrated that they will kowtow to nationalism over ideological allegiance to secure the regime.

    Without the Korean War, the CCP would have little excuse, as well as little bragging point to demand a Soviet Withdrawal.

    Only with the withdrawal of the Red Army, could the PRC gain the geopolitical independence to contemplate a future diplomatic relation with the USA and the West.
     
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  10. Jura
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    Jura General

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    thought the USSR had left Dalian earlier in 1950 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_Treaty_of_Friendship,_Alliance_and_Mutual_Assistance) I mean before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#China_intervenes_(October–December_1950)
     
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