ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Yesterday at 2:06 AM
Monday at 8:25 PM
it's just residential districts (what remains of Easter Ghouta Pocket) now:
DXyPSXBXkAAPMDP.jpg

(the map comes from Twitter
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)

EDIT now noticed the map (should be "clickable"; it's
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) not confirming Government in "Rayhan"
Monday at 8:25 PM

yet:
18-East-Ghutah-8mar18-17esf96-hawsh-ashari.jpg
time to zoom in:
a0109e62489055bb4b0c6a5cef74e3c8.jpg

about one mile for Government to go to split Eastern Ghouta Pocket (in its narrowest part)
 
Yesterday at 4:49 PM
Yesterday at 2:06 AM
time to zoom in:
a0109e62489055bb4b0c6a5cef74e3c8.jpg

about one mile for Government to go to split Eastern Ghouta Pocket (in its narrowest part)
it's happened by now:
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:
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troops succeeded in spiting the eastern
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region in half after completely securing the village of Madera E
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DYAxEJFWsAA8uea.jpg


(saw info to this effect in other sources, too; actually soon there may three enclaves if
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gets separated from the rest of the northern part)
EDIT now noticed
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The Syrian Arab Army fully captured Mudayrah and advanced in Harasta. Harasta and Duma are now fully besieged and the Eastern Ghouta pocket split in 3 parts Map:
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DYA9bHVWAAE1f65.jpg
 
Last edited:
Yes. Order will stop the suffering

Yesterday at 12:01 PM
Today at 8:21 AM
reportedly today Kurds are loosing area to the south of the town of Afrin, Turks getting east to
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for example to "Kafar Zeyd" (according to some tweet I saw now), marked in the map below; it's just north to
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):
363ec5d06ce995b59b47e43b06cf84e6.jpg


makes me wonder where and when will Kurds put up a fight
actually the situation of Afrin Kurds has become precarious:
0606d7c0145bf5150f30f01cafd79bbc.jpg

(I used the current
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and put there what I read in sources)
 
let's see if anyone looks here:
The 'American Century' Is Over, and It Died in Syria
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The forces of democracy and the great moral gains of the New World Order have given way to great-power conflict and the new autocracy.

For anyone who thought that the winding down of the campaign against the Islamic State would cause the Syrian civil war to recede from the headlines, the last few weeks have been a rude awakening. Far from abating, the Syrian conflict is intensifying, with a brutal assault --
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-- by the Syrian government on rebel-held areas near Damascus, sharp aerial clashes between Israeli, Iranian and Syrian forces, and a bloody and one-sided confrontation between American airpower and Russian
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These events do more than simply demonstrate that the Syrian conflict remains an appalling humanitarian catastrophe. More significantly, Syria is the nexus for the destabilizing trends that are thrusting the entire global order into crisis.

That order was originally created after World War II, but it reached its full flowering and ambition after the fall of the Soviet Union. The post-Cold War era was characterized by widespread hopes that the forces of order and civilization were finally defeating those of aggression and inhumanity; that democracy was becoming truly universal; that great-power competition had vanished; and that the danger of major war was receding further than ever before. Nearly three decades later, however, the heady optimism of that period has given way to a darker set of trends, all of which are at work in Syria.

Begin with the obvious: Syria represents an assault on the very idea of moral progress. But it's not alone. Around the globe, longstanding legal and ethical norms are being eroded, and the world is being dragged back to a more ruthless, less-enlightened age. China, which may have a
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, is chipping away at freedom of navigation in the Western Pacific; Russia has shattered the taboo against wars of aggression and conquest in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Yet Syria is where the erosion is most advanced and the consequences most horrific. The regime's continued use of starvation sieges, barrel bombs and illegal weapons against the civilian population -- and the international community's inability or unwillingness to bring the slaughter to an end -- demonstrates more painfully than anything else that the moral gains the world seemed to have achieved are now being rolled back, and the rules of conduct it seemed to have established are now being transgressed. Neither the Barack Obama administration, with its "red-line" fiasco of 2013, nor the Donald Trump administration, with its diplomatic disengagement from the conflict, has had an answer to this challenge.

The Syrian war also reveals a second unsettling feature of global politics today: the return of ideological conflict. This is not to say that the civil war is a clash between entrenched authoritarians and aspiring democrats. Many Syrians who initially protested and fought against the regime in 2011 and 2012 wanted a transition to a more pluralistic system, but most of those moderates have now been killed, radicalized or otherwise driven from the field.

Nonetheless, the Syrian conflict reflects the broader authoritarian resurgence at work. President Bashar al-Assad offers the most brutal and ruthless example of how the world's remaining dictators have not meekly succumbed to the forces of liberalization, but have instead become tougher and more tenacious in clinging to power.

Moreover, the war shows how ideological differences are again driving global politics. Most of the Western democracies have insisted -- rhetorically, at least--that the killing must stop and Assad must go. Yet the world's leading autocracies -- China, Russia and Iran -- have rejected the idea of foreign-imposed regime change and provided various forms of assistance to keep a fellow autocrat in power. The competition between authoritarianism and democracy has been renewed, and nowhere has that competition been sharper than in Syria.

Meanwhile,
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has also returned, and here too, Syria is ground zero. Iran and Israel are maneuvering -- often violently -- for advantage, as part of their broader regional struggle. More strikingly still, Syria has become an arena for renewed great-power rivalry between the U.S. and Russia. The once and current adversaries do not simply disagree over Assad's fate; they are using their military power to carve out competing spheres of influence and stake their respective claims to leadership in Syria and the broader Middle East.

Russia in particular is using Syria as a proving ground for the advanced weapons systems and hybrid-warfare tactics it might well employ in a future conflict with the West, as well as to make itself a player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. From Ukraine to the South China Sea, great-power frictions are again the global norm, and Syria has as good a claim as any location to be the cockpit of the rivalry.

This relates to a final way in which Syria illustrates the growing crisis of global order -- through the surging risk that it might set off a much larger military conflict. Across Eurasia, the danger of major war is rising, as geopolitical rivals arm themselves, refine their war plans, and brush up against one another in increasingly incendiary ways. And in the last month alone, the Syrian civil war has occasioned two separate incidents that might have served as the spark.

The recent clashes between Israeli, Iranian and Syrian regime forces -- which started with an Iranian drone intruding into Israeli airspace, and culminated in a significant Israeli attack on Syrian air defenses -- might easily have spiraled into something bigger. Had an
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in early February not made it back across the Israeli border before its crew ejected, for instance, an aerial skirmish could have turned into a fight involving ground forces.

Last month's combat between U.S. forces and Russian mercenaries was even more dangerous. The Russian decision to use hybrid forces to attack a base at which U.S. troops were present demonstrates how bold Moscow is becoming. The punishing U.S. airstrikes that reportedly killed around 200 Russian personnel show the potential for great-power rivalry in Syria to rapidly escalate into something more deadly. If one is looking for evidence that the relative international peace of the post-Cold War era is crumbling, look no further than the U.S.-Russian quasi-war occurring in Syria today.

Some wars are ultimately remembered less for appalling harm inflicted on participants and bystanders than for what they revealed about the larger state of the world. We now see the
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, for instance, not just as a tragic episode in the history of that country, but for what it demonstrated about an international system under strain. Today, our own international system is fraying at the edges. If that process continues, we may one day look back on Syria as the crisis that foretold the greater unraveling to come.
 

nicky

Junior Member
General V. Gerasimov, RF Chief of General Staff:

"White helmets" organized small crowds of civilians and brought about mobile TV crews for the live coverage of prepared chemical attacks by Assad, which will be performed by the opposition in order to give a pretext for the US air and missile strikes against Damascus.
Russian DoD warns that any threats to Russian military advisers now stationed at many Syrian Government offices will be be met by appropriate measures taken against incoming missiles and their carriers.
 
Can anyone post or link to info on the current in-theater orbat of all the various sides participating in the conflict? Seems like things might heat up.
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Lavrov warns of ‘grave consequences’ of US new strike against Syria

The possibility of a new strike was stated in the UN Security Council by United States Permanent Representative Nikki Haley


MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. The consequences of a new US strike on Syria, the possibility of which was stated in the UN Security Council by United States Permanent Representative Nikki Haley, will be very serious, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday.

"If a new strike of this kind takes place, the consequences will be very serious," Russia’s top diplomat stressed.

"Mrs. Haley should understand that it is one thing to irresponsibly exploit the microphone in the UN Security Council and it is another thing when both the Russian and American militaries have communication channels and it is clearly stated via these channels what can be done and what must not be done," Lavrov said.

"The US-led coalition knows well about that," the Russian foreign minister said.

"When, against the backdrop of an obvious failure to implement resolution 2401, in as much as it concerns militants and their sponsoring West, new resolutions are put forward under the pretext that it is Russia, Iran and the Syrian government that have failed to provide for the requirements of the previous resolution while Mrs. Haley makes a statement that the US is, of course, a peaceful nation but it may at any time deliver a strike against the forces in the Syrian Arab Republic, as they did a year ago by striking the Shayrat airbase, I simply don’t have any normal terms left to describe all this," Lavrov pointed out.

US Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nikki Haley said at a UN Security Council meeting on March 12 that Washington was ready to deliver a strike on Syria again, if the UN proved unable to secure the ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta near Damascus.

Chief of Russia’s General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov said on Tuesday that the Russian Defense Ministry is ready to take retaliatory measures against US’ possible strike over Damascus if there is any danger to the Russian military there.

De-escalation zones
Moscow does not think it is expedient at this stage to discuss an increase in the number of de-escalation zones in Syria, according to Lavrov.

"I do not think that we should seek to increase their number and expand their area. The most important thing now is to make sure that they are operating in the agreed regime, primarily in the ceasefire regime," the minister noted.

According to Lavrov, the de-escalation zones will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the Russian, Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers in Astana on March 16.

"The most crucial task now is to prevent the continuation of blatant violations of this regime in Eastern Ghouta," the minister added.

Last September, Russia, Iran and Turkey acting as the guarantors of the Astana process declared four de-escalation zones in Syria had been agreed: in the southwest of the country, in Eastern Ghouta (a Damascus suburb) and near the city of Homs. The fourth zone embraces the Idlib province and parts of the neighboring provinces of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama.

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now Senators Quiz Military Leaders on U.S. Forces in Syria after ISIS
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Senators pressed the nation’s top commander in the Middle East on what’s next for the United States by keeping its forces in Syria after the ISIS forces in the region are in decline.

The senators’ suggestions: Ensuring violent extremists don’t again seize huge swathes of territory for a new Islamic caliphate, toppling the Damascus regime of Bashar al Assad, stymieing Iran’s and Russia regional ambitions that extend well beyond Syria?

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, testifying Tuesday
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, said late in the hearing, Syrian Democratic Forces with United States and coalition support have retaken 98 percent of the territory once held by the so-called caliphate. By finishing that mission those forces will “create a platform” to begin a “Geneva process” of negotiations involving all parties under U.N. auspices “to address broader issues” to put an end to the civil war ravaging Syria.

He termed the military defeat of the Islamic State “a preliminary step” in setting up those conditions.

The demographics of the fighting in Syria between the government and opposition forces, now centered around Ghouta, and the continuing campaign against the Islamic State led by the half-Arab, half-Kurd Syrian Democratic Forces is extremely complex and potentially dangerous, Votel reminded the committee.

Not only are the United States, Russia and Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah from Lebanon and Shiite militias from Iraq involved but also forces from the Kurdish areas of Iraq and Turkey.

As he told its House counterpart, Russia in Syria continues to play the roles of “arsonist and firefighter.” Votel said. He
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“lacks the ability or is choosing not to” pressure Assad to live up to ceasefire agreements that allow the civilians to leave and food, water and medical supplies be safely distributed. He called the situation in areas like Ghouta, “a humanitarian disaster.”

The continued Russian air operations and ground support from Iran and Hezbollah has shored up Assad’s control of parts of the country, especially around the capital and other large cities. Votel said it “would appear the regime is ascendant” in the civil war.

Votel said his forces have “all the authorities they need to protect themselves” against attacks from Shiite militias and, as was the case in February, against forces operating with Russian contractors. He added that the U.S. and coalition forces are in contact with the Russians and Turks several times a day to exchange information on operations and ensure that situations don’t escalate out of control.

With the Turks, who identify many Kurdish groups as terrorists, the coalition is “as transparent and clear as we can be” in working with the Syrian Democratic Forces on its ground operations against the Islamic State.

Despite Tehran’s support of terrorism and Assad, he voiced support for the nuclear agreement with Iran, but added if it ended “we would find another way to deal” with that potential threat.”Right now, it is in our interest.”

At the other end of his area of responsibility, Votel said the administration’s South Asian strategy of upping the pressure on Pakistan to shut down Taliban, Haqqani Network and al Qaeda safe havens within its borders “has helped gained their attention.” But he has “not seen decisive changes” directly assisting the mission in Afghanistan and clearing out the extremists’ safe havens that allow them to operate across the border.

Votel said the build-up of the Afghan air force and its special operations forces give the Kabul government more “offensive capability” in its struggle primarily with the Taliban, but it must also deal with long-standing systemic corruption in its offices and regional leaders more interested in personal power and wealth than governance.

As for the Taliban, Votel said, it “is not a popular insurgency,” and they are opposed by more than 90 percent of the Afghan people. He said in the recent past the Taliban “has taken on many of the characteristics of a [criminal] mob,” interested in financing its operations through the processing of narcotics. Among the lessons learned in combating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria was the importance of “going after these funding streams” and “limiting the flow” of illegal drugs to sell in international markets.

“We are not parties” to the civil war in Yemen. Votel said he backed continued intelligence-sharing, logistics — including aerial refueling, ballistic missile defense and operation planning with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in their support of the Yemeni government.
 
Feb 15, 2018
Feb 8, 2018
and today the Kremlin said (
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)
there might be five Russians (assuming Contractors, no Active Duty of course) killed
during the attack Saturday at 2:10 PM


here's some background:
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Incredible implications here. Russia's own mercenaries are acting independently of Russian armed forces command. Not only can Russia not control regime/Iranian-led forces, it can't control its own contractors. Unprecedented and deeply disturbing.

10:08 AM - 14 Feb 2018
and
American General In Syria Confirms US Forces Killed Hundreds Of Russians In Massive Battle

March 16, 2018
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A senior U.S. general appears to have confirmed that hundreds of Russians fought – and died –
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against American forces and their local counterparts in Syria. More importantly, U.S. Army Brigadier General Jonathan Braga, director of operations for the main U.S. military task force in charge of operations in Iraq and Syria, said he feared the situation could have escalated into an all-out conflict with Russia, something we at The War Zone have
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is becoming a
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.

Braga gave the surprisingly candid account of what had happened
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, who traveled with the general to visit the exact site of the incident in Syria and to see what the U.S. military was doing to improve its defensive posture.

The skirmish occurred on Feb. 7, 2018 when forces aligned with Syria's dictator Bashar Al Assad,
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from a shadowy company called Wagner, which are possibly under the direct control of the Kremlin, launched an attack on U.S. forces and members of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, a predominately Kurdish group, in eastern Syria. The opposing force consisted of tanks and heavy artillery.

After a massive American counter-attack involving air and artillery strikes beat back the opposing troops, reports emerged afterwards suggesting that as many as 200 Russians had died in the engagement, which you can read more about in detail
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and
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.

The initial attack "led to immediate phone conversations with the Russians to inquire what was going on, to cease this if they had any knowledge of this," Braga told Engel. The Russians responded by saying "those are not our forces and at that time it was confusing," the general added.

Based on the segments of the interview that NBC has released so far, Braga does not specifically say the Russian government ordered the operation or otherwise had any direct involvement in it. He does, however, clearly say the U.S. government believes it killed a significant number of Russian nationals during the battle and unequivocally says he was concerned that the situation could have spiraled into a much more serious conflagration.

"There have been reports that two to three hundred of the Russian force was killed. Is that accurate?" Engel asked him in the interview. "We've seen that in open reports as well and that's I would say close to our estimates as well," Braga responded.

"Were you worried during this firefight, during this battle that this could have become sort of real war with Russia?" Engel continued. "Absolutely concerned and that's why, again, I had a professional dialogue with our [Russian] counterparts throughout the night," the general told him.

Braga's comments are of a significant different tenor from previous remarks from U.S. military and other government officials, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis, offered in the days and weeks following the incident. Mattis in particular repeatedly deflected and downplayed the presence of Russian mercenaries and the potentially serious implications of their involvement, especially as a proxy for the Kremlin itself.

Yet, on multiple occasions he described the idea that Russia would have had a direct hand in the incident as "
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," despite months of publicly increasing tensions between the two countries over the situation in the region, including already
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. The Russian government has, of course, denied any involvement, saying that there might have been just five "presumably Russian citizens" who died in the fighting, and deflecting accusations that it played any part in the incident with unfounded
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.

While we don't know what the reason for the shift in tone might be, Braga's new interview with NBC does follow a fiery speech from Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2018, in which he unveiled a host
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and implicitly threatened the United State and its allies. It also comes after
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of a former Russian intelligence officer in the United Kingdom, which both the U.K. and American governments say was a Kremlin-ordered assassination attempt.

The interviews release also comes amid U.S. government reports of Russia-based cyber attacks on U.S. public and private institutions, including elements of
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and
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, all in the run-up to the 2018 U.S. mid-term congressional elections. The United States continues to investigate the extent if Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, though the U.S. Intelligence Community says it has little doubt that the Kremlin tried to interfere with those polls.

Putin, who is almost certain to win a fourth term as Russia's president a controversial election in polls just days away, appears to have increasingly turned to proxy forces in Syria, such as the Wagner forces, in order to better avoid criticism at home and abroad. In December 2017, he
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and declared total victory in Syria during a
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.

There had been reports of
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in Syria, which could have given rhetorical ammunition to
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. Just earlier in March 2018, a Russian Air Force
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near the Kremlin's outpost in the western Syrian governorate of Latakia, killing all 32 individuals on board. There has been little additional information about this incident, with Russia said was not the result of enemy action.

Back in the eastern portion of the country, Braga seems to fear that another Russian-backed attack could easily come in the future. “I don’t think that’s healthy for de-escalation,” he told NBC's Engel, referring to the pro-Syrian forces still situated very close to American and SDF positions.

Whatever happens, there seems to be growing evidence that the two sides may already be in the midst of a low-level conflict, or least an uneasy standoff, whether they're actively fighting each other or not.
 
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