ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

51 minutes ago
Feb 8, 2018
and today the Kremlin said (
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there might be five Russians (assuming Contractors, no Active Duty of course) killed
during the attack Saturday at 2:10 PM


here's some background:
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Incredible implications here. Russia's own mercenaries are acting independently of Russian armed forces command. Not only can Russia not control regime/Iranian-led forces, it can't control its own contractors. Unprecedented and deeply disturbing.

10:08 AM - 14 Feb 2018
and here's Analysis: Russian ‘expendables’ further complicate Syrian war
Analysis
A battle in eastern Syria involving a large force of Russian mercenaries may have exposed Moscow's inability to control events on the ground. Alternatively, it could have been a high-risk test of the United States’ commitment to defend its Syrian allies that highlighted Russia's disregard for its deniable soldiers.

The battle took place on 7 February, when the US-led coalition reported that it had launched strikes to repel an unprovoked attack by pro-government forces against a well-established Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) headquarters where coalition personnel were present. It did not reveal the location of the SDF position, other than it was 8 km east of the Euphrates River deconfliction line that divides US-backed SDF and pro-government forces.

...
... the rest is behind paywall at Jane's
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Russiana amused (
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) by
Israël-Syrie : la guerre qui vient
16 février 2018
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so also I ran an automatic translation of
Le conflit syrien menace désormais de sortir de ses frontières. Echouant à convaincre Moscou de contrôler les agissements de l’Iran sur le territoire syrien, mais aussi, malgré des dizaines de frappes aériennes, à neutraliser l’arsenal et les chefs militaires du Hezbollah qui, depuis les opérations de Tsahal en 2006, ont au moins multiplié par dix leur force de frappe, Israël s’est engagé depuis fin janvier dans une escalade à l’issue incertaine.

Alors que le clan Assad est en train de reprendre le contrôle de la Syrie «utile» depuis l’accord secret entre Ankara et Moscou, qui a vu les troupes russes se retirer d’Afrine en échange de l’abandon par les Turcs de l’insurrection sunnite d’Idlib, Tel-Aviv craint par dessus tout un coup de force sur le Golan à la faveur d’un dispositif militaire international sans précédent fidèle à Damas.

Le 1er février, Tsahal a multiplié les bombardements de soutien à l’opération «Battle of the Conquerors», initiée par l’opposition non djihadiste contre le groupe Jaish Khaled bin al-Waleed affilié à l’EI, qui, depuis Deraa, menace la frontière orientale de l’Etat hébreu. Six jours plus tard, Tsahal a déclenché une opération destinée à neutraliser le centre de recherche balistique syrien de Jamraya. En réponse, les Gardiens de la révolution ont lancé, depuis la zone d’influence russe de Palmyre, un drone armé Saeqeh, inspiré du RQ 170 furtif américain, qui vient d’entrer en phase d’industrialisation massive. Celui-ci est passé à la verticale de la ville de Beit Shean malgré la présence d’un système Patriot, avant d’être abattu par un Apache.

Autre faille exploitée par la propagande iranienne, les difficultés des F-16 israéliens à neutraliser les systèmes sol-air syriens renforcés par les radars anti-furtifs iraniens après la perte d’un avion dans l’opération de frappe contre les Gardiens de la révolution à Palmyre et l’atterrissage forcé d’un second aéronef dans le village d’Hasbani, au sud-ouest du Liban, dimanche dernier. Israël a déployé dans le Golan, à proximité du village de Baka al-Garbiya, plusieurs batteries de missiles sol-air.

Tentant de ne pas s’enliser dans le conflit entre le YPG et Ankara au nord de la Syrie, Washington qui, bien qu’opposé à l’alliance chiite, reste totalement rejeté par la population sunnite. Les Américains ont par ailleurs procédé, au début du mois, à un bombardement massif, près de Deir ez-Zor, des milices syriennes de Liwa al-Baquir et Liwa Fatimiyoun, contrôlées par les Gardiens de la révolution, à l’aide de B-52, f-22, F-15, Apache et C-130 Spectre. La disproportion des moyens engagés en moins de trois heures est un avertissement clair adressé à Téhéran, qui venait de s’offrir le luxe de dérober neuf chars Abrams M1 en Irak via son proxie Hachd-al Chaabi.

Pour Washington, il ne s’agirait pas pour autant d’une offensive destinée à soutenir Israël, mais avant tout, comme l’été dernier, à préserver les sites pétroliers exploités par Conocco ! Des sites que le gouvernement syrien avait tenté de négocier quelques jours plus tôt auprès de la SDF/YPG soutenue par Washington.

Placés désormais sur la défensive, Américains et Israéliens se voient imposer une alternative qu’ils redoutaient, soit s’engager dans un conflit régional particulièrement meurtrier, soit entériner le maintien au pouvoir du clan Assad et la présence de Téhéran comme de Moscou aux abords de la Méditerranée et du canal de Suez.
:
"The Syrian conflict is now threatening to come out of its borders. Failing to convince Moscow to control Iran's actions on Syrian territory, but also, despite dozens of airstrikes, to neutralize the arsenal and the military leaders of Hezbollah who, since the operations of IDF in 2006, have to less ten times their strike force, Israel has committed since the end of January in an escalation with uncertain outcome.

While the Assad clan is regaining control of "useful" Syria since the secret agreement between Ankara and Moscow, which saw Russian troops withdraw from Afrine in exchange for the Turkish surrender of Sunni insurrection in Idlib, Tel-Aviv fears above all a coup on the Golan in favor of an unprecedented international military device faithful to Damascus.

On 1 February, the IDF increased its bombardment in support of the "Battle of the Conquerors" operation, initiated by the non-jihadist opposition against the IS-affiliated Jaish Khaled bin al-Waleed group, which since Deraa threatened the eastern border of the Jewish state. Six days later, the IDF launched an operation to neutralize the Syrian ballistic research center at Jamraya. In response, the Revolutionary Guards launched, from the Russian influence zone of Palmyra, an armed Saeqeh drone, inspired by the American stealth RQ 170, which has just entered the phase of massive industrialization. It passed the city of Beit Shean despite the presence of a Patriot system, before being shot by an Apache.

Another flaw exploited by Iranian propaganda is the Israeli F-16's difficulties in neutralizing Syrian ground-air systems reinforced by Iranian anti-stealth radars after the loss of a plane in the strike operation against the Revolutionary Guards. in Palmyra and the forced landing of a second aircraft in the village of Hasbani, south-west Lebanon, last Sunday. Israel has deployed several ground-to-air missile batteries in the Golan, near the village of Baka al-Garbiya.

Trying not to get bogged down in the conflict between the YPG and Ankara in northern Syria, which Washington, although opposed to the Shia alliance, remains totally rejected by the Sunni population. At the beginning of the month, the Americans also carried out a massive bombing near Deir ez-Zor of Syrian militias of Liwa al-Baquir and Liwa Fatimiyoun, controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, with the help of B -52, f-22, F-15, Apache and C-130 Spectrum. The disproportion of the resources committed in less than three hours is a clear warning to Tehran, who had just offered himself the luxury of stealing nine M1 Abrams tanks in Iraq via his proxie Hachd-al Chaabi.

For Washington, this would not be an offensive to support Israel, but first of all, as last summer, to preserve the oil sites operated by Conocco! Sites that the Syrian government had tried to negotiate a few days earlier with the SDF / YPG supported by Washington.

Placed on the defensive now, Americans and Israelis are imposed an alternative that they dreaded, either to engage in a particularly deadly regional conflict, or to ratify the continued power of the Assad clan and the presence of Tehran as well as Moscow in the vicinity of the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal."
 
Thursday at 5:13 PM
Feb 8, 2018
and today the Kremlin said (
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)
there might be five Russians (assuming Contractors, no Active Duty of course) killed
during the attack Saturday at 2:10 PM


here's some background:
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Incredible implications here. Russia's own mercenaries are acting independently of Russian armed forces command. Not only can Russia not control regime/Iranian-led forces, it can't control its own contractors. Unprecedented and deeply disturbing.

10:08 AM - 14 Feb 2018
and interestingly, now on top at us.cnn.com there's The oil field carnage that Moscow doesn't want to talk about
Updated 12:59 AM ET, Sun February 18, 2018
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timepass

Brigadier
Syrian Kurdish Official: Deal for Syrian Army to Enter Afrin...



"Syrian Kurdish forces and the Damascus government have reached an agreement for the Syrian army to enter the Afrin region to help repel a Turkish offensive, a senior Kurdish official said on Sunday.

Badran Jia Kurd, an adviser to the Kurdish-led administration in northern Syria, told Reuters army troops would deploy along some border positions and could enter the region within the next two days."

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more than one year ago Jan 14, 2017
Nov 20, 2016
Oct 30, 2016

... was the last in a long "carving Eastern Ghouta Pocket" series, now:
CxpfP5SXgAAGjka.jpg

(it's
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)​
an update (it's
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):
j996eblziaw4lnwzg.jpg
it's above me how incomparably bigger Aleppo fell in coupla weeks

EDIT
now I kept clicking back from the above post until I got to
Dec 8, 2015
and of course it's been holding for two (?) years already at that time (and I hadn't heard of it until then)
and Government didn't get to Eastern Ghouta when I had been out of this thread:
99a829d4f68dbc08158ea63de68c3d5f.jpg
 
Feb 15, 2018
Feb 8, 2018
and today the Kremlin said (
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)
there might be five Russians (assuming Contractors, no Active Duty of course) killed
during the attack Saturday at 2:10 PM


here's some background:
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Incredible implications here. Russia's own mercenaries are acting independently of Russian armed forces command. Not only can Russia not control regime/Iranian-led forces, it can't control its own contractors. Unprecedented and deeply disturbing.

10:08 AM - 14 Feb 2018
now (the original article is behind paywall) WaPo: Key Russian oligarch in touch with Russia, Assad before mercenaries attacked US troops
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Before a Russian mercenary attack on US and allied forces in Syria earlier this month, the Russian oligarch believed to control the mercenaries -- a man who the US special counsel
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last week -- was "in close touch" with Russian and Syrian officials, The Washington Post
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Thursday evening.
The Post, citing US intelligence reports, said intercepted communications showed the oligarch, Yevgeny Prigozhin, told a Syrian official he had "secured permission" from a Russian minister for a "fast and strong" initiative.
US intelligence agencies declined to comment to the Post, and a senior administration official told the newspaper that the episode was "worrisome" and said it was striking how the Russians quickly distanced themselves from the attack.
The Russian press
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Prigozhin the "chef" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Prigozhin was charged as part of the US investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US elections.
The deadly February 7 incident in the war-torn nation has drawn considerable attention in international media, and it highlighted the continued level of violence in Syria as the conflict there rages on and global powers operate in support of competing factions.
Friends and families of the Russian military contractors
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were among the many killed in retaliatory US airstrikes in northern Syria earlier this month. The US initially expressed confusion about what had happened, with Defense Secretary James Mattis saying, "The Russians told us they had no forces there initially. I think that's still the case, but we don't have full clarity on what the regime forces are doing there."
And Moscow at first downplayed reports of the mass Russian casualties as confusion around the incident remained.
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the Russians were working for a paramilitary company, and they advanced on an oil and gas field controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed militia; despite an effort to establish communication through US-Russia deconfliction channels, the US airstrikes began, killing many of the Russians.
This week, the Russian government
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earlier this month in a Russian Foreign Ministry statement, saying "several dozen" Russians had been injured and an unspecified number died in US airstrikes on February 7.
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Feb 15, 2018
now (the original article is behind paywall) WaPo: Key Russian oligarch in touch with Russia, Assad before mercenaries attacked US troops
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Has everyone simply forgotten the fact that Syrian Government is facing "foreign" militaries in its own sovereign territory. Taking back Eastern Euphrates Valley is only natural for Syria to do. It's America which is in direct contravention of International Law in Syria. The Syrian Government never requested American assistance. Instead America is arming rebel Syrians against their own government. And who, may I ask, gave one country the right to meddle in another country's internal affairs? So what if tomorrow, Mexico starts to arm Puerto Rican rebels against their own government and sends in Mexican military to assist the rebels. How would America react then? Or if Argentina sent in military hardware to a group of rebels in the Falklands, what would Britain's reaction be?

Syrian government taking back it's own territory is not something to be alarmed about. Americans still being present in Syria is something to be concerned about. Turkish military in Syria is something to be concerned about.

The more this war drags on, the more absurd and ridiculous America looks, using whatever excuse to stay in Syria and Iraq. Time has come for foreign countries to take their stuff and go back to their own darn territory. Mind their own business and stay the heck out of other countries' internal affairs!!
 
Feb 10, 2018
now will update also Jan 21, 2018

... actually back then I just confused with WW2 Eastern Front;

in fact it's a slow, containment operation (the Turkish strategy here probably is to connect "the dents" around the border first):
427qx3vu14g86fzzg.jpg

the map should be "clickable"; it's
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found in Twitter:
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the view is consistent with what
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is showing
and two weeks later, added in red, completely schematically (I hope previous lines from the above map are visible):
  1. in northeast, Turks connected their gains with the area around
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    and threaten
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  2. in northwest, Turks merged two their previously gained areas and threaten
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  3. in southwest, Turks from the recently extended taken area threaten
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Afrin1.jpg
 
8wzdw5387155veozg.jpg

now I see I could've waited for it (
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[/URL]), but didn't Yesterday at 2:50 PM
Feb 10, 2018
and two weeks later, added in red, completely schematically (I hope previous lines from the above map are visible):
  1. in northeast, Turks connected their gains with the area around
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    and threaten
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  2. in northwest, Turks merged two their previously gained areas and threaten
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  3. in southwest, Turks from the recently extended taken area threaten
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Afrin1.jpg
actually Turks got into the northernmost corner (
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area) since yesterday
 
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