This is an instructive example to illustrate the Bayesian nature of correct PLA watching. We have a piece of evidence e, these tender documents. We have the hypothesis h, the next carrier is in the early stages of construction, whose probability we are trying to determine in light of this evidence. We have an elegant formula for determining this:
o(h | e) = o(h) * P(e | h)/P(e | not h)
o(h | e) is the odds that the hypothesis is true given the evidence, o(h) is the prior odds of the hypothesis, P(e | h) is the probability that we would see the evidence e if h were true, vs. P(e | not h), the probability we would see the evidence if h were false.
How significant this evidence is is determined by this ratio. Intuitively, this is how much the evidence moves the needle. The prior odds of the hypothesis is where the needle originally was.
I take a more optimistic view about the PLAN's procurement schedule than the knowledgeable consensus here, so my prior odds are higher than most others'. While this evidence is significant, it's certainly not a picture of modules being assembled that would overwhelm any prior. So to sum up, I think it's fair to say the needle moved in the right direction by a decent amount.
