China's SCS Strategy Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have been looking at the meme that is Filipino SCS tensions. My verdict? The Philippines have no business getting into conflict with anyone.

Their airforce has a single fixed-wing combatant squadron made of converted trainer jets (FA-50). No BVR missiles in the inventory and they are just getting modern IR guided missiles. The current AAM inventory is just AIM-9L

Their navy has no ships capable of area air defense. In fact none of their ships have anything beyond MANPADS and old-style guns for air defense. ASW capability is token with no TAS or ASW missile available in the navy. 2 ships have a single helo, hull-mounted sonar (HMS) and torpedo tubes. And another two have HMS and torpedo tubes. There are two more patrol vessels with HMS and a single helo but I am not sure if they are ASW capable. No subs in the inventory.

Air defense? Pretty much non-existent for a country size of the Philippines. 3 batteries (3 launchers each) of SPYDER. SPYDER is capable, but it is barely area air defense by today's standards with a range of 50 km. And 3 small batteries are basically negligible. According to many articles, even MANPADSes or autocannons are rare in the armed forces. So air defense is basically done by 0.5 cal machine guns.

I didn't dive deep into the ground forces but, looking shallowly, things look bad there too. I don't see any ATGMs beyond low numbers of TOW 2 variants (comically donated by the US in 2022). Tanks are non-existent and there are just 12 self-propelled guns. The light tank they are getting is not amphibious, which IMO is a bizarre choice for the Philippines.

Filipino Armed Forces is a glorified police force. Call this chauvinism but I don't think an armed forces that can't sink ships, shoot down aircraft or kill tanks in any real capacity is worth mentioning. Even Vietnam and Indonesia are extreme overmatches for the Philippines. Let alone PLA Southern Theater Command
Forget Vietnam and Indonesia.

Even Uganda has more fighters and tanks than Phillipines...
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have been looking at the meme that is Filipino SCS tensions. My verdict? The Philippines have no business getting into conflict with anyone.

Their airforce has a single fixed-wing combatant squadron made of converted trainer jets (FA-50). No BVR missiles in the inventory and they are just getting modern IR guided missiles. The current AAM inventory is just AIM-9L

Their navy has no ships capable of area air defense. In fact none of their ships have anything beyond MANPADS and old-style guns for air defense. ASW capability is token with no TAS or ASW missile available in the navy. 2 ships have a single helo, hull-mounted sonar (HMS) and torpedo tubes. And another two have HMS and torpedo tubes. There are two more patrol vessels with HMS and a single helo but I am not sure if they are ASW capable. No subs in the inventory.

Air defense? Pretty much non-existent for a country size of the Philippines. 3 batteries (3 launchers each) of SPYDER. SPYDER is capable, but it is barely area air defense by today's standards with a range of 50 km. And 3 small batteries are basically negligible. According to many articles, even MANPADSes or autocannons are rare in the armed forces. So air defense is basically done by 0.5 cal machine guns.

I didn't dive deep into the ground forces but, looking shallowly, things look bad there too. I don't see any ATGMs beyond low numbers of TOW 2 variants (comically donated by the US in 2022). Tanks are non-existent and there are just 12 self-propelled guns. The light tank they are getting is not amphibious, which IMO is a bizarre choice for the Philippines.

Filipino Armed Forces is a glorified police force. Call this chauvinism but I don't think an armed forces that can't sink ships, shoot down aircraft or kill tanks in any real capacity is worth mentioning. Even Vietnam and Indonesia are extreme overmatches for the Philippines. Let alone PLA Southern Theater Command
That's what I have been stressing in my comments to the point of frustration where one of my comment led me to a prison sentence of 1 week. As someone else had said on this forum, the PH know a lot about WAR PROPAGANDA but not about ACTUAL WAR let alone MODERN COMBAT.

Which is why I LOL every time I read comments from the usual PINOYS that think oh so highly of their non-existent military which are often aided and abated by Youtuber's that produce lemmings like this:
The video has already garnered almost 2 Million views in 9 days of posting and the comments are even more ever predictable.

You have a President who's raison detre to participate in Taiwan is due to the country's 150,000 or so Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) which is an even more absurd proposition and reason since China could have used that excuse in Ukraine since China has made so much investment in that country which has now been destroyed because of NATO and the Russian special operation/invasion etc...The whole PH leadership in my opinion are nothing but empty suits and are prone to emotional outburst and tantrums as if they are even close to being a competent power at all.
 

PhSt

Junior Member
Registered Member
wasn't expecting to see Marcos as a guest in a US-funded political think tank that's hosted by Gregory Polling, the latter being the head of a major anti-Chinese outfit called the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative which regularly attempts to smear China, especially in the SCS. :rolleyes:

 

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
wasn't expecting to see Marcos as a guest in a US-funded political think tank that's hosted by Gregory Polling, the latter being the head of a major anti-Chinese outfit called the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative which regularly attempts to smear China, especially in the SCS. :rolleyes:

This is do profound, unless you don't know the Marco's family history
 

Canton_pop

Junior Member
Registered Member
wasn't expecting to see Marcos as a guest in a US-funded political think tank that's hosted by Gregory Polling, the latter being the head of a major anti-Chinese outfit called the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative which regularly attempts to smear China, especially in the SCS. :rolleyes:

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A good read on how the tough guy Aquino blunder and finally lost Panatag Shoal , over-playing his role and confident that US will come to their rescue is Manila times using this to hint Marcos Jr?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
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A good read on how the tough guy Aquino blunder and finally lost Panatag Shoal , over-playing his role and confident that US will come to their rescue is Manila times using this to hint Marcos Jr?
The screen shots are taken from the author of the book: Debacle from the same author/columnist of the article linked above.

Screenshot_20230516_125308_com.amazon.kindle.jpgScreenshot_20230516_125314_com.amazon.kindle.jpgScreenshot_20230516_125319_com.amazon.kindle.jpgScreenshot_20230516_125355_com.amazon.kindle.jpgScreenshot_20230516_125400_com.amazon.kindle.jpg
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
It looks like Marcos Jr. has not been kept upto breast with the advances in military technology and capabilities of the China/PLA that's far more potent and lethal than the China of 2012. Either that or he's level of hubris thinking and assuming just like then Pres. Aquino Jr. assumed that America will die to the last Filipinos as to why Marcos Jr. is trying his best to poke the Dragon in the eye.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
It looks like Marcos Jr. has not been kept upto breast with the advances in military technology and capabilities of the China/PLA that's far more potent and lethal than the China of 2012. Either that or he's level of hubris thinking and assuming just like then Pres. Aquino Jr. assumed that America will die to the last Filipinos as to why Marcos Jr. is trying his best to poke the Dragon in the eye.
Rather than not knowing, PH is playing the dangerous game of bringing US into the SCS to strengthen their own chances. The situation for them is really bad, because as people named above, their military is in many respects behind even sub-saharan African nations.

So what does PH want from this? They want US to back them in the SCS against everyone else, because continental ASEAN and China have already moved on, leaving PH behind. By bringing in someone with rough parity to China, they hope to tip the scales back.

Of course, America's thinking is different. I think the most astute US strategists realize that America as of the present does not have the hard power to credibly threaten China with a military operation against Taiwan. In order to even begin to present a serious threat, more bases and more hardware is needed. Therefore, US is not there to help PH with its paltry disputes against other ASEAN, but they want to threaten China and make China commit more resources towards defense.

So even if China may use many different methods to prevent US from attacking even after a buildup, if US can build enough forces to credibly threaten China, US would have succeeded in disrupting the situation in Asia.
 
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