China's SCS Strategy Thread

[birdlikefood]

I think the following assumptions are pretty reliable:

If no one intervenes then China is only interested in taking back Taiwan.

If US intervenes then China will attack intervening US forces, relevant bases, and may take over the Ryukyus.

If Japan intervenes then China will attack intervening Japan forces, relevant bases, and may take over the Ryukyus.

If the Philippines intervenes then China will attack intervening Philippines forces, relevant bases, and may take over SCS islands/shoals claimed by China but occupied by the Philippines.

China is not interested in occupying any part of any of the main islands of Japan or the Philippines or any part of the US.

Basically agree with this point of view, but disagree with one point.

China should not take over Ryukyu, although China may capture Ryukyu in the process.

A new possibility is that China will accept the demilitarization of Ryukyu under Chinese supervision and as a bridge for future reconciliation with Japan.

 

[TK3600]

Basically agree with this point of view, but disagree with one point.

China should not take over Ryukyu, although China may capture Ryukyu in the process.

A new possibility is that China will accept the demilitarization of Ryukyu under Chinese supervision and as a bridge for future reconciliation with Japan.

I prefer doing what American did, clearly it worked.

 

[luminary]

Sigh...

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White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that the two leaders’ meeting on May 1 is expected to focus on deepening economic cooperation, climate change, human rights, efforts to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region and more.

Biden and Marcos had their first face-to-face meeting in September on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will meet his local counterpart and Marcos on Saturday.

 

[Biscuits]

I believe China should make the move on Taiwan province by 2025. while Taiwanese military is still in dissaray and Americans haven't had enough time to completely brainwash and radicalize Taiwanese as they managed with Ukrainians. The status quo in which West (primarily U.S.) is making a mockery out of Chinese territorial integrity and sovereignty by sending delegations to Taiwan province, providing them with arms, discussing trade deals, having military presence on an island and by supporting Taiwanese presence in international organizations etc is unsustainable and cannot be allowed to last. If Lai Ching-te (whose views are even more radical than Tsai's) is elected next year then I believe that efforts to achieve peaceful reunification should be abandonded.

If government forces start firing at rebels, it will likely mean hundreds of thousands citizens dead, ofc most will be hanjian but some civilians will also be caught in the crossfire.

China still maintains de facto control and that is the most important factor. The rebels themselves are not dangerous, but the danger comes from a Donbass situation arising where US can send troops into China under the guise of "protecting self determination".

Rather than restarting the civil war, China should consider declaring martial law, in Taiwan only. Force all shipping and flight to pass inspections and/or stop on Fujian first. That way, they will prevent Americans from arming anti government forces and at the same time starve KMT out.

I just see Phillipenes as a location for the US to lob cruise missiles at Chinese naval forces attempting to blockade Taiwan. As much as posters like to believe otherwise, Russia has already expended thousands of missiles of all sorts at Ukranian infrastructure and military targets yet they are not subdued. The belief that China can simultaneously supress Taiwan and US forces in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through long range fires alone is too optimistic imo, every new base the US constructs within the zone of conflict will require the PLA planners to reserve another massive salvo to neutralize it, making it a uneven trade.

Then you understand even more how unrealistic it is for US, which has less bombers than Russia, to even begin to threaten any Chinese province with long range fires except possibly Taiwan. But just bombing Taiwan will not achieve anything, Taiwan is not integral to Beijing's war machine. Even if the whole province is reduced to an Iraq like state between PLA air strikes on rebels and US bombing, it will not affect the mainland's gdp or industry.

China doesn't need to completely destroy all the US bases at once on day 1. It just needs to hold Taiwan and destroy incoming invaders one at a time until the whole country is on war production mode. Then, it can launch an island hopping counteroffensive on the aggressors (whether that is just US or Philippines + US or even Japan as well), once the whole industry of China is dedicated towards producing weapons and the first waves of draftees make their way into the PLA.

 

[Dante80]

China still maintains de facto control and that is the most important factor.

What do you mean by that? Taiwan is a de facto independent country of 24 million people. They have their own government, authorities, economy, military, etc etc. It has been that way for decades. And that is the main reason for not caring enough for de jure independence at this juncture, since there would be zero additional benefits to them (and possibly terrible consequences).

I think you were talking about something else (something like: "China still maintains the ability to seize control of Taiwan militarily, and that is the most important factor").

 

[Biscuits]

What do you mean by that? Taiwan is a de facto independent country of 24 million people. They have their own government, authorities, economy, military, etc etc. It has been that way for decades. And that is the main reason for not caring enough for de jure independence at this juncture, since there would be zero additional benefits to them (and possibly terrible consequences).

I think you were talking about something else (something like: "China still maintains the ability to seize control of Taiwan militarily, and that is the most important factor").

De facto is created by recognition. The Donbass has all those things as well but until Feb 24 2022, those would not be relevant because Kiev could smash them anytime. ISIS had all of those as well. Neither are independent countries, although a peace settlement in Ukraine might change that in the case of the former.

China's current ability to defend Taiwan is of course important, but it doesn't have a bearing on whether Taiwan is legally and internationally recognized as part of the country or not. Not having the ability to defend itself would embolden would be invaders to take advantage of it.

 

[Dante80]

De facto is created by recognition.

That is not what de facto means. We are off-topic though, I'll retire the argument.

 

[Overbom]

De facto is created by recognition. The Donbass has all those things as well but until Feb 24 2022, those would not be relevant because Kiev could smash them anytime. ISIS had all of those as well. Neither are independent countries, although a peace settlement in Ukraine might change that in the case of the former.

China's current ability to defend Taiwan is of course important, but it doesn't have a bearing on whether Taiwan is legally and internationally recognized as part of the country or not. Not having the ability to defend itself would embolden would be invaders to take advantage of it.

The definition of de facto

 

[PanAsian]

Basically agree with this point of view, but disagree with one point.

China should not take over Ryukyu, although China may capture Ryukyu in the process.

A new possibility is that China will accept the demilitarization of Ryukyu under Chinese supervision and as a bridge for future reconciliation with Japan.

To clarify, by "taking over" I only meant ousting the incumbent authorities regardless of how long China then maintains control.

Not to be too beholden to history, China arguably owes the Ryukyus their liberation as China's failure to contest Japan's annexation back during the colonial period was key to how the current state of affairs came to be. Given the colonial history of Taiwan as well under Japan it would be poetic redemption for China to in the course of recovering Taiwan, encounter foreign intervention, and in the course of resisting that also liberates the Ryukyus.

If China is successful in such circumstances I think the realistic scope of what China can offer Japan is that it is not interested in continued hostilities with Japan as long as no one based in Japan takes actions hostile to China.

Footnote that China will recover Diaoyus as well if Japan intervenes in Taiwan reunification.

 

[CMP]

To clarify, by "taking over" I only meant ousting the incumbent authorities regardless of how long China then maintains control.

Not to be too beholden to history, China arguably owes the Ryukyus their liberation as China's failure to contest Japan's annexation back during the colonial period was key to how the current state of affairs came to be. Given the colonial history of Taiwan as well under Japan it would be poetic redemption for China to in the course of recovering Taiwan, encounter foreign intervention, and in the course of resisting that also liberates the Ryukyus.

If China is successful in such circumstances I think the realistic scope of what China can offer Japan is that it is not interested in continued hostilities with Japan as long as no one based in Japan takes actions hostile to China.

Footnote that China will recover Diaoyus as well if Japan intervenes in Taiwan reunification.

If Japan dares to intervene militarily in an AR scenario, China should seize all Japanese islands south of the main ones. If Japan does not surrender after that, Kyushu and Shikoku can be assessed as targets. The ones in the North, including Hokkaido, can be taken by Russia. This will have the added benefit of dividing the Japanese forces between simultaneous efforts in both the north and south. Ryukyu can be liberated as a special autonomous region. If South Korea does not intervene militarily (extremely unlikely since their military takes commands exclusively from a US commander), then they can be offered Japanese territories they have longstanding claims on (maybe even including Kyushu and Shikoku just to make it irresistible) in exchange for evicting the US military presence. If South Korea intervenes militarily, North Korea should be given the green light to begin their own AR campaign.