Miscellaneous News

[Overbom]

Looks like literally no one wants the war to continue. Why are people against Xi brokering a treaty again?

The US is dragging this war.

Strategically they have achieved their purpose. Russian economy is crippled, Russian military inventory has been overdrawn, Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger, Russia as a great power is probably dead and buried and now has to settle for a lower status.

US' national interest IMO is to drag this out for another 5 years or so to fully drain Russia's comprehensive national power and thus completely cripple it.
It just has to be careful that the nature of weaponry that the US sends to Ukraine isn't relevant in a Taiwan scenario, and also to reduce the war intensity so that US can afford funding Ukraine for so many years.

If the US sees that combat intensity/consumption keeps being so high, IMO its best option would be to try and end the war prematurely otherwise its resources will be overstretched with dealing with Russia and China at the same time

 

[manqiangrexue]

The US is dragging this war.

Strategically they have achieved their purpose. Russian economy is crippled, Russian military inventory has been overdrawn, Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger, Russia as a great power is probably dead and buried and now has to settle for a lower status.

US' national interest IMO is to drag this out for another 5 years or so to fully drain Russia's comprehensive national power and thus completely cripple it.
It just has to be careful that the nature of weaponry that the US sends to Ukraine isn't relevant in a Taiwan scenario, and also to reduce the war intensity so that US can afford funding Ukraine for so many years.

If the US sees that combat intensity/consumption keeps being so high, IMO its best option would be to try and end the war prematurely otherwise its resources will be overstretched with dealing with Russia and China at the same time

I don't see it that way at all. Russia doesn't challenge American supremacy; China does. Ukraine isn't worth anything; the tech war and dollar dominance are. Russia's economy is doing better than most of Western Europe. America and Europe are getting poorer funding Ukraine, Euros are getting too poor to support the US in a tech war it has no chance of winning without 80 henchmen helping it. Russia's not anywhere near defeated militarily or economically, and to add to that, suddenly, dollar usage is slipping with RMB usage going to unseen levels before. China's putting together previously unthinkable anti-American alliances that literally threaten the Petrodollar dominance. China gets to focus on developing its tech and military while the US, EU and Russia mudwrestle in Ukraine. By the time the US gets up and wipes the crap off its face (if Russia will let it out at all except in defeat), it's gonna be looking up at a one jacked Hulk-looking China ready for hegemony fight. This is what America wanted?

 

[baykalov]

According to some pundits (Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson), the leak is the result of internal infighting within Western powers. The desired effect was to prevent this Ukrainian-Russian conflict from expanding to something much worse. The complaints of US spying on allies is just a ruse.

Here's their opinion:

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The leak of US defense assessments of Ukraine's long-promised military offensive has caused turmoil in Washington and Kiev. Retired US diplomat James Jatras, an adviser to the US Senate Republican leadership, and former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, explain the motives behind it.

Pentagon officials behind the leak of Ukraine's battle plans are looking for an "offramp" from the escalating proxy conflict with Russia, two former Washington insiders have said.

Pundits have speculated that the Pentagon reports on Ukrainian battle plans leaked to Telegram channels and heavily reported in the US mainstream media are a US smokescreen to misdirect Russia, a convenient excuse for ending costly support to Volodymyr Zelensky's Kiev regime or even a Moscow psy-op fake.

Retired US diplomat James Jatras told Sputnik that the leak "indicates that there are some dissident voices within the US government who are not comfortable with the direction of policy."

Those elements "would like to slow it down or maybe even change its course" but are still "a distinct minority within the establishment," he stressed.

The Senate adviser said it was significant that the leak came from the Department of Defense, not his old employer, the State Department.

"There are people within the military who realize that we're moving toward a potential disaster in Ukraine. Those are more realistic people," Jatras said. "They're familiar with the hard facts of military power," while the State Department and the White House "believe their own propaganda."

Other former US military and intelligence officers have argued that the leaks are the result of frustration over Washington's backing of Ukraine. But the ex-diplomat said that came from "further down the chain of command," and "primarily within the military."

He also disagreed that the leak complicated the US plans for the conflict, since the consensus in Washington was that Ukraine just "needs to roll the dice" and create "the appearance of making some sort of progress."

At that point the US will either up the ante with its support for Kiev or announce "some kind of a peace proposal" based on the illusion that they "go to the table with an advantage on Ukraine’s side," Jatras predicted.

The "danger" was that Russia might grant the West a "face-saving gesture" in return for a peace deal that meets its demands of de-militarization, de-Nazification and no NATO membership for Ukraine.

"These are fundamentally dishonest people here," Jatras cautioned. "They would not keep any word or any assurance any more than they lived up to the Minsk Agreement."

As for the timing of the revelations, the Republican advisor said the intention was likely to was to slow down or change the direction of policy," pointing to a US "tradition" of leaks from the establishment all the way back to the Vietnam War.

But he noted that "none of those things made much difference in the direction of American policy. It still took years for the policy establishment to be ground down by having reality catch up with them"

Jatras said more leaks could follow, but only if there was a "really disastrous development on the ground in Ukraine." While some neoconservative Republicans want to switch focus to a confrontation with China over Taiwan, "leaving Ukraine would not be as cost free for American prestige internationally as was our loss in Afghanistan."

Retired CIA analyst Ray McGovern told Sputnik that he did not accept either claims that the documents were part of a disinformation effort.

"This is somebody who has access to highly sensitive information, probably at the Joint Chiefs of Staff level, who decided, my God, you know, if the American people knew this, maybe we could stop this terrible, inexorable drift toward wider war in Ukraine and perhaps including nuclear weapons," McGovern argued.

"The Ukrainians are upset, of course, because it shows that we're spying on them. But, you know, surprise, surprise, we do that on everybody," the former Langley insider pointed out. "Precisely the same thing happened when high level people leaked information, which became too embarrassing for the president to widen the war. In that case, in Vietnam."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office has already said that Kiev's plans for the long-advertised spring counter-offensive will have to be re-written following the leak. McGovern took that as proof that Ukraine isn't ready for a major operation.

"Zelensky himself said three weeks ago 'We can't do a spring counteroffensive unless we get the weapons that we need' and everyone knows that the weapons that they need, although promised, won't get there in time," McGovern pointed out. "So this is kind of a way to rationalize."

The former intelligence official argued the real reason for the leak was that "people in Washington are trying to find their offramp" and need to "expose the lies that have been told by people like the defense secretary, people like the head of the CIA."

"There's a hopeful sign here that these leaks will shut the Americans into thinking, whoa, wait a second, we've been lied to about this war. Ukraine is not winning," McGovern said. "Maybe it's time to sit down, do something sensible and negotiate."

 

[pmc]

Strategically they have achieved their purpose. Russian economy is crippled, Russian military inventory has been overdrawn, Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger, Russia as a great power is probably dead and buried and now has to settle for a lower status.

Russia has occupied 20% of Ukraine the largest country in Europe with less than 200,00 solders. which Military can do it against this scale of fortification and NATO sensors? and this will continue. Russia also gaining practical experience in systems and training with infrastructure built in all directions.
Rouble is practically established as reserve currency in Middleast, Africa and Turkey that no one knows to avoid unnecessary attention. but the scale of luxury purchased has increased manifold. you wanna compare dead shopping malls , auto dealerships of West with Middleast? with efficient Airline traffic that deliver every luxury to those that matter. I am still thinking why a Japanese garden on this scale in Krasnodar. perhaps appreciation of Japanese vehicles reliability despite the sanctions and celebrate getting rid of unreliable European vehicles faster than expected. It need right connections to shop around on this scale.

 

[Overbom]

. Russia doesn't challenge American supremacy; China does

Russia is helping China to offset and distract Western pressure on the European front. The US is trying to prematurely knock out Russia before China officially challenges the US. Its a preemptive strike by the US that is preparing for a near-future where the US might force China's hand on Taiwan

Ukraine isn't worth anything; the tech war and dollar dominance are.

I agree, Ukraine is worth jackshit. Rest I also agree with

Russia's economy is doing better than most of Western Europe

I meant from a holistic point of view. Economy, tech, fiscal revenue/expenditure, HDI etc. Overall, Russia is losing that race because it is slowly transitioning to a war economy.

Never underestimate how expensive wars are. I can guarantee you that for each day of war that Russia is in, it could easily build dozens of schools every day with all that spent money. Similarly for the West, its much cheaper though because they aren't in a direct war, they are just (mostly) sending their outdated military equipment and once in a while give enough money so that Ukraine doesn't collapse. When viewed overall, Russia has to bear a lot more costs because Western countries are richer and thus easier to absorb these losses.

Euros are getting too poor to help the US in a tech war it has no chance of winning without allies.

A cow is still a cow. Poorer, yes. Too poor to help, no. Europeans still have a lot of fat for the US, no doubt about that. Basically the trade is, cripple Russia for decades, and the only cost you pay is a few points of lost GDP growth. Strategically, you take this trade every day of the week. Even when you know that you have to deal with China.

The primary point is that the West sees Russia as a big helper for China, so from that POV it makes sense to knock out Russia even if they have to pay a price for that

Russia's not anywhere near defeated militarily or economically

The question isn't about defeat. Its about draining Russia's national comprehensive strength. Was America seen as defeated militarily or economically in Afghanistan in the beginning? No. Now ask the same question today and everyone will say yes. I predict something similar will happen to Russia. Russia won't officially lose in Ukraine, but when viewed from a strategic point of view the Special Operation in Ukraine will be considered a strategic defeat for Russia in the future (10, 20 years later)

that, suddenly, dollar usage is slipping with RMB usage going to unseen levels before.

Dollar would had slipped either way, Ukraine war or not. The only difference is how quickly it would have had happened. Really, China's rise automatically means that the dollar would slip eventually.

The real question is if accelerating dollar's decline is worth the price for the US for playing all these cards against Russia. My answer is no (even today), unless it drags the war and completely drain Russia's national comprehensive power. Anything other than that and i could consider this move a net loss of the US. Its all about the scale balance. As long as it becomes positive, all kinds of cards can be played. The only consideration is that the advantage you gain is worth the price you paid

China gets to focus on developing its tech and military while the US, EU and Russia mudwrestle in Ukraine

True. As I said its all about if the advantage gained is worth the price paid. Nothing is sacred in this world, any price can be worth it it if you gain enough benefits. IMO the price and the gamble the West has taken with this war is big and for sure they have to be careful.

There is a balance for the West here where it gains more advantages than China gains advantage. Maybe that means it has to stop in a few years, maybe next year, or maybe in 10 years. Casual people like you and me can't know about that, the only people who know about this are probably the strategists in the US deep state who control this situation from that side.

By the time the US gets up and wipes the crap off its face, it's gonna be looking a one jacked China ready for hegemony fight. This is what America wanted?

Of course not. Thats where Chinese and American strategists will square off. My analysis is that the US national interest is to drag this war for a few more years, have a ceasefire, massively arm Ukraine Israel-style and start again for round 2

 

[Helius]

Le pivot continues. Now the French are embracing 2 euro brassiere from Aliexpress -

Imagine Aliexpress of all places defining what's 'sexy' to the French of all people.

 

[baykalov]

My analysis is that the US national interest is to drag this war for a few more years, have a ceasefire, massively arm Ukraine Israel-style and start again for round 2

If the US wishes to drag out the war for a few years, then the US should be prepared to send NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Ruslan Stefanchuk, the Chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and member of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine said in a recent interview:

“Victory has to come this year. We are not able to fight until the exhaustion because unlike Russia, which has very big resources, Ukraine is a smaller country. So we need this victory fast.”

 

[Serb]

The US is dragging this war.

Strategically they have achieved their purpose. Russian economy is crippled, Russian military inventory has been overdrawn, Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger, Russia as a great power is probably dead and buried and now has to settle for a lower status.

No, no, and no. Russian economy isn't crippled, it is just scratched. Nothing like the US was expecting and planning for. If we account for inflation too, then half of the EU got it economically worse than Russia nowadays.

Western millitary inventory was also used up. And their already limited pool of millitary factories, machinery and skilled workers are now tied to producing some land based equipment for years, as long as the war last, instead of what would actually be used for the Taiwan scenario.

It's the opposite again, the West has beed exposed as a paper tiger. The whole NATO, 30+ countries, with other US vassals, 40+ countries didn't manage to militarily outproduce nor defeat one single Russia which has "the GDP the size of the Italy" in their arrogant heads.

 

[Eventine]

No it's not a good thing. Trying to control vessels have been repeatedly tried throughout Chinese history and it's proven to be a bad idea each time.

If the vessel is weak it's just a drain on your resources because they will constantly beg for stuff
If the vessel is strong and has ambitions then they will plot to backstab you at the worst moment

That's one thing that US doesn't understand about the relationship between North Korea and China. When discussing nuclear weapons on the peninsula US would go "China rein in your dog and I'll rein in my" and China would go "you don't understand, I can only put in a good word for you and make suggestions, I can't force them to do things - they are their own sovereign nation."

What I'm referring to is the US's ability to get its "allies" - more accurately, vassals - involved in any conflict it gets into. We saw this in Iraq and Afghanistan with the "coalition of the willing" and we see it in Ukraine with the sanctions and supplied arms. In the latter case, Europe suffers far more from it than the US does, so the US is essentially using Europeans to fight other Europeans.

There is no question in my mind that, should China fight Taiwan, most of the US's Pacific vassals (Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc.) will get directly involved. By contrast, I'm skeptical that Russia, Iran, or Pakistan will get directly involved on the side of China. The US's ability to command a legion of vassals to do its bidding is one of its greatest strengths, and a reason why a direct attack against Taiwan is not currently feasible.

 

[Serb]

What I'm referring to is the US's ability to get its "allies" - more accurately, vassals - involved in any conflict it gets into. We saw this in Iraq and Afghanistan with the "coalition of the willing" and we see it in Ukraine with the sanctions and supplied arms. In the latter case, Europe suffers far more from it than the US does, so the US is essentially using Europeans to fight other Europeans.

There is no question in my mind that, should China fight Taiwan, most of the US's Pacific vassals (Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc.) will get directly involved. By contrast, I'm skeptical that Russia, Iran, or Pakistan will get directly involved on the side of China. The US's ability to command a legion of vassals to do its bidding is one of its greatest strengths, and a reason why a direct attack against Taiwan is not currently feasible.

I share your concerns, however I think that mr. Macron was clear enough on this matter. China is no Iraq or Avghanistan. I also think US vassals in the Pacific won't be directly involved, they would probably only allow the US war forces freedom of movement and usage of already existing military facilities the US has already inside them.

Though, I think Japan might be actually crazy enough to join the US directly out of their guilt and fear of China due to everything they done to China in the past. They fear retribution. Should China fully rise and force the US out of the Pacific, they think it is over for them mildly put.