New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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Ambitious plan here from Zhengzhou.

Looking to build world largest NEV base with 3 million per year. BYD won't be the only manufacturer here, but I don't see how they get to 3 million without a huge BYD presence here.

With 40% of parts produced around Zhengzhou including the large BYD blade battery factory + a BYD semiconductor material factory.

Everywhere in China, municipalities are setting ambitious goals to be the next NEV mega base.
 

tphuang

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Take a look at this. What a nice looking charging station opened up by Shell in Shenzhen. It's first one in partnership with BYD. Looks clean and modern with a cafe that I would actually want to hang out in (no, I do not want to hang out for 30 minutes in my local gas station store)
 

supercat

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Huawei/Seres aim to sell 1 million EVs by 2026.
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NIO's battery team has been boosted to 1,000 people and is developing its own lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) and 46 series ternary batteries, according to local media.
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Lopal, a CATL supplier, will invest USD290 million to build a lithium iron phosphate factory in Indonesia.
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Li Auto's gross margin rebounded in Q4, 2022.

No demand for VinFast for now:
 

tphuang

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At this point, BYD can make Vinfast life easier by just entering Vietnam, build a car plant & battery plant there and be treated as like the home automaker. They already have parts factory there and byd electronic factory there.

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Car fans posted good summary here of what's happening. Note the commentary on BYD, Seres/Huawei and Leapmotor

here are some more comments. One for all the Huawei fans
都说的很直白了,华为最近动作很多,潜台词就是进店和新增订单有明显上涨。

我什么时候花时间讲过一些品牌无意义改革动作了?
只能说最近一定要注意华为,除了明面上的,一线渠道也在跟合作方密集开战各种合作,不管是调配全国销售到上海做道路数据收集,还是问界大规模接管门店销售和售后交付,虽然承诺不造车,但是除了“造”,华为每个环节都在全速铺设。
and for others
在这个黎明前最黑暗的2~3月份,改革转型是各品牌的主旋律,吉利银河,长安深蓝这些主流自主品牌要转型,新势力也要扩渠道增加车型,加强护城河。只是零跑选择跟特斯拉发布会同一天的3月1号宣布4款车型会不会太猛了。

关于比亚迪降价这次降价原因很简单,因为比亚迪已经是行业龙头,市场出现波动它一定也会有受影响,而2月整体订单变少了,库存就多了,库存多了各大区就必须降价。不只是比亚迪,所有品牌都在大降价,尤其是BBA以价换量的情况越来越厉害,昨天丰田的门店在抱怨99800的秦PLUS直接把卡罗拉优惠干出新高度了。
basically BYD suffered because everyone else discounted and they didn't. Now they had to discount certain dynasty models to get store visits and orders. Which is pushing JVs to the limit. We are in the early inning of a price war right now.
dynasty series to me is just going to slowly become the default DM-i lineup outside of Yuan+ & maybe Tang. I think Han EV will have trouble against Seal long term. Song is basically 80 to 90 DM-i. Same with Qin.
Also, the other issue with BYD is that they haven't launched any new models recently that's exciting. That will change with SeaLion, N7 and of course Seagull.
 

tphuang

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I am under impression the price war already happened for a while since Q3 2022. Arguably BYD's initial price is what set it off in first place. At this point the margin is so ruthless I don't think there is much space to go lower.
So recently, the lithium prices have come down. For someone like BYD that produces the batteries itself, it makes it easier to cut prices. Also, CATL has been cutting prices. Beyond that, I think have more of the plant up and running will lower the costs for BYD. So, I think they can still turn good margins even after discounts. I'm not sure about their competition.
 
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