Quantum computing thread

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Could you share an example that you're already familiar with?
He first of all didn't create either Tesla or Spacex, although one can argue his investment in them was key for them to become what they are now.

With that said, it's clear he makes a lot of empty promises only sometimes underdelivering them years later.

And there's examples of ponzi schemes such as the solar roof company, that he made Tesla buy (starlink might very well be a ponzi scheme as well).

All in all, you would need to look deeper to get more info around him (the channel I provided is a good starting point imo)
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
He first of all didn't create either Tesla or Spacex, although one can argue his investment in them was key for them to become what they are now.

I don't think there's any argument about it. Without Elon Musk's investment, Tesla and SpaceX would have gone bankrupt. Do you realise how many times they almost went bankrupt and only just secured enough funding to make it through?

Also remember that it was impossible to get a good CEO for these companies, because every good CEO was rightfully worried they would be CEO of a bankrupt company.

With that said, it's clear he makes a lot of empty promises only sometimes underdelivering them years later.

And there's examples of ponzi schemes such as the solar roof company, that he made Tesla buy (starlink might very well be a ponzi scheme as well).

All in all, you would need to look deeper to get more info around him (the channel I provided is a good starting point imo)

I would he say he's overoptimistic, which is frankly a character trait of all entrepreneurs otherwise they wouldn't be entrepreneurs pushing the boundaries in the first place.

On solar roofs, I think we can reasonably expect solar tiles to see significant cost declines as they improve the technology which is still in the early stages of development and adoption. So I would say it is still too early to make a determination on how financially viable it is, but we can see that large scale solar photovoltaics is already the lowest cost electricity in many places, and continues to improve.

And how is it a Ponzi scheme if Musk does everything he can to keep SolarCity alive, which includes buying the company and paying out to shareholders when the company was actually insolvent?

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Also, how can Starlink be a ponzi scheme, given that the owner SpaceX is a privately-owned company? The only entities who are shareholders or provide money are: Elon Musk, Venture Capitalists, Banks & Funds and lastly, the employees who have exercised share options because they believe in the company

And if you do a napkin analysis of Starlink costs versus revenue, you get something like:

5 year revenue: $2.4M
Initial Cost: $0.7M

Methodology below. Numbers all publicly available

Bandwidth: 20GBp per satellite
Users supported: 400 (based on 50MBps per user)
Lifespan: 5 years
Current Charge per User: $99 per month

Weight: 260kg
Satellite Cost: $250K
Launch Cost: $428k @ $1647/kg


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So you can see that current generation Starlink satellites could be very profitable over a 5 year lifespan.
And their plan is to decrease launch costs 8x to $200/kg when they move to Starship launches
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
And if you do a napkin analysis of Starlink costs versus revenue, you get something like:

5 year revenue: $2.4M
Initial Cost: $0.7M

That was how they used to criticize Amazon, saying that company did not know what it was doing, and they would never make money. IIRC that was completely true for like 10 years when the stock price kept going up but no money was made. Then, it all changed.

Didn't Amazon started out by selling books? And only books?

Now they do try to do quantum computing too.

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:oops::D
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Starlink will get bailed out by the DoD just like what happened with Iridium if it comes to it. It is too big to fail.
The DoD has no realistic alternative to Starlink in terms of coverage and bandwidth.
 

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yea, no.

Even as I'm just an ordinary layman, even I can see, that it already seems like there's possible uses of quantum computers outside of 'just breaking RSA'.

So big disagree on that.
For laymen: quantum physics, which is relevant to the study of electron behavior, becomes a significant factor whenever you approach 1 ångström (0.1 nm) in size. Quantum technology is a fancier word to describe advanced nanotechnology. Quantum technology is already in use, even in modern computer architecture, as at the 3-7 nm size we will see electrons spontaneously jumping transistors and introducing quantum noise. Half the challenge of designing and manufacturing 2 nm chips is in the pronounced quantum effect. Although I'm not an expert in qubit-based computers, I can guarantee quantum technology (military sensors, material science, physics simulations, lasers, space, nuclear) will eventually become the fundamental basis of all future hi-tech. It will be (and tbh already is) as ubiquitous as classical mechanics.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Unbelievable. These guys are just moving so fast

Now we have machine learning on Quantum & super computer collaboration platform. This is still the first stage obviously, but the application fields are just quite extraordinary. Especially if this can rapidly speed up autonomous driving development.
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