COMAC C919

[abenomics12345]

Fuel capacity of the C919 is 24,917 L while A320neo is 29,659 L.
The A320neo carries 19% more fuel. And it has 17% more range. Big whoop.

It means everything for an airline trying to offer service between destinations - having a plane that can't cover where you're trying to fly is no bueno. Airline routes have been secularly changing to be skinnier and longer (cc: Airbus and A380 failure) - long range means everything in this context. Why bother with adding additional maintenance/training when you can just go with 737 or A320 since you enjoy better flexibility with range/capacity that you do not with C919.

I've made it clear why I think domestic airlines could credibly be not interested (save political objectives) in buying the C919 - its an inferior product in every way vs alternatives today. The only thing you can possibly do is to entice customers with lower capital costs upfront so to make it worthwhile over the lifecycle of the product. At the same time, it is crucial for the iterations of the C919 to become competitive (if not superior) with the alternatives.

Until COMAC becomes competitive, someone has to eat the necessary costs of operating an inferior product.

As the Party slogan says these days: 放弃幻想认清事实 (drop the delusions and recognize reality).

Recognition of drawbacks is the first step of overcoming them.

 

[Nilou]

A good thing to keep in mind is that Airbus started development of the A320neo right after the design for the C919 was frozen. Unbeknownst to many, industry has already responded to the C919. And the response is literally the entire current generation of mainline narrowbodies.

I think the C919 at this stage is pretending to be a Dassault Mercure to appear less threatening to the established players. But once production has been stabilised and the kinks are worked out, newer higher performance and longer ranged variants can start to be produced at less risk. The current choice to limit range is to stop a predictable case of scope creep.

 

[lcloo]

I've made it clear why I think domestic airlines could credibly be not interested (save political objectives) in buying the C919 - its an inferior product in every way vs alternatives today.

Intereting statement, how much of this is your personal opinion, and how much is factual?

 

[tphuang]

A320NEO was started as a response to the C Series, which has now become quite a monster under Airbus. But keep in mind Airbus still looses money of every A220 it sell. For most airline projects, you lose money in the beginning and don't make money until you reach certain volume production. It's hard for me to know the profit levels for C919, but I assume it is going to be losing money for a few years.

As such, it was quite important for them to not wait longer and get C919 certified already. The longer you wait, the more money you spend and the more pressure there is on COMAC. As such, it is absolutely the right decision for them to use Western suppliers. the next step for C919 is not range. If I'm an airline in mainland China, I'm not too concerned about its range. It can fly any domestic sectors or to Thailand, Japan and Korea. Most of the airlines in China operate multiple short haul fleet types. It's not one of those things where they need to buy 1 fleet type for all the mission types. Once you get to a certain size, being able to operate different fleet types that are optimized for different missions is more important than having fewer fleet types.

With B737 not longer being an option for Chinese airlines, it is very important for them to operate a non-Airbus fleet type in order to obtain large discounts when place A320NEO orders. And that's not even factoring in all the geopolitical issues associated with Western aircraft. So, not that I covered this, it should be obvious to everyone why Chinese airlines must operate C919 as a subfleet.

The most important part for COMAC is to work with the airlines to establish after service support and developing maintenance centers. Whenever an airline adds a new fleet type, it's a big investment. It needs to establish a new pilot rating, have separate list of pilots just to operate that fleet type. You also need mechanics and support staff to maintain that new aircraft types. You need to buy flight training simulators for that type. Your pilots need to go through training on that type to "stay current". You need to be able to have relationship with the supply chain so that you can get spares and work out regular maintenance schedules. You have to think very hard about where you can operate that aircraft since there aren't as many mechanics for that new aircraft. As such, if it breaks down somewhere, you need to have mechanics there to be able to repair it. Hangar queens are a huge problem for new airline types. These are all things that take huge investment by the airlines. So the big 3 Chinese airlines are not going to stop at 5 aircraft. Don't be ridiculous. This level of fixed cost investment doesn't translate to 5 aircraft. They will order more by exercising their options or leasing one of the several hundred C919 on order with Chinese leasing firms. It's great that COMAC will be able to work with all of the big 3 airlines to get better at this after service support.

Also, keep in mind that having a large domestic market means C919 will get at least 500 orders. When you have that many aircraft in service, there will be a secondary market and plenty of spare parts. All of these reduces operating cost and risks for airlines purchasing new C919.

So don't concern yourself too much with range. Think about how quickly COMAC can get better at after service support and making airlines happy. Believe me, the big 3 Chinese airlines are not going to be enjoying flying C919 in the beginning. The first legit aircraft type by COMAC is like to have as many problem as Embraer had with E90 (might be even more).

As for indigenizing subsystems, they will obviously have to work toward that. Having a fully Western free supply chain will allow them to sell to domestic ministries, CIS countries, Iran, Venezeula, Cuba, Myanmar, North Korea and any other sanctioned countries. If C919 is successful, it will be able to sell beyond that. Don't worry too much about initial export order book. Get C919's support system worked out so that new airlines will be able to add it into their fleet more easily and then work toward fully indigenizing.

Don't worry about comparing yourself to A320NEO. Just get it to be something airlines can use.

 

[gelgoog]

The C919 airframe still seems somewhat suboptimal compared with the A320 when you compare empty weight, weight per passenger carried, and the like. But the difference is like 5% so this is minimal. It is still baffling how it is worse when the A320 is basically a 1980s airframe though.

 

[tphuang]

The C919 airframe still seems somewhat suboptimal compared with the A320 when you compare empty weight, weight per passenger carried, and the like. But the difference is like 5% so this is minimal. It is still baffling how it is worse when the A320 is basically a 1980s airframe though.

Airbus is continuously making small improvements to A320 in terms of adding range and introducing new materials that lightens the aircraft. More importantly, weight per passengers carried is dependent on the aircraft configuration. Airbus has gotten very good at introducing layout with flex cabins and such that maximizes passengers it carries in a space. For example, notice how much smaller those flex bathrooms at the back have gotten. How you can compress the flight attendant working area in the back by reducing size of trolleys or removing oven spacing at the back.

These are all optimizations that COMAC can make to C919 after it gets introduced and get the basics right. PIPs are common and very important.

 

[Rowdyhorse4]

people keep talking about range, it isn't about the range, its the efficiency. Airbuses can go further because its MORE EFFICIENT than the c919. and mainland airlines would definitely care about efficiency.


let COMAC make a C919neo or something before every airline in the industry cash all their chips in.

The C919 airframe still seems somewhat suboptimal compared with the A320 when you compare empty weight, weight per passenger carried, and the like. But the difference is like 5% so this is minimal. It is still baffling how it is worse when the A320 is basically a 1980s airframe though.

5% savings IS NOT MINIMAL in the airline industry. ITS MASSIVE. its why adding designing wing tips plays a crucial role in new aircraft as well from Boeing's MAX AT Winglets to Airbus's Sharklet wingtips, From Boeing's Raked Wingtips to Airbus's Curved wingtips. those wingtips only save meager 3-6% but its enough to make or break an airline's decision to purchase or not.

in the airline industry where everyone is trying to scrap every profit possible with their thin margins, 5% is a massive boost. And this is also taught in aero design courses in mainland unis.

 

[Rowdyhorse4]

A320NEO was started as a response to the C Series, which has now become quite a monster under Airbus. But keep in mind Airbus still looses money of every A220 it sell. For most airline projects, you lose money in the beginning and don't make money until you reach certain volume production. It's hard for me to know the profit levels for C919, but I assume it is going to be losing money for a few years.

As such, it was quite important for them to not wait longer and get C919 certified already. The longer you wait, the more money you spend and the more pressure there is on COMAC. As such, it is absolutely the right decision for them to use Western suppliers. the next step for C919 is not range. If I'm an airline in mainland China, I'm not too concerned about its range. It can fly any domestic sectors or to Thailand, Japan and Korea. Most of the airlines in China operate multiple short haul fleet types. It's not one of those things where they need to buy 1 fleet type for all the mission types. Once you get to a certain size, being able to operate different fleet types that are optimized for different missions is more important than having fewer fleet types.

With B737 not longer being an option for Chinese airlines, it is very important for them to operate a non-Airbus fleet type in order to obtain large discounts when place A320NEO orders. And that's not even factoring in all the geopolitical issues associated with Western aircraft. So, not that I covered this, it should be obvious to everyone why Chinese airlines must operate C919 as a subfleet.

The most important part for COMAC is to work with the airlines to establish after service support and developing maintenance centers. Whenever an airline adds a new fleet type, it's a big investment. It needs to establish a new pilot rating, have separate list of pilots just to operate that fleet type. You also need mechanics and support staff to maintain that new aircraft types. You need to buy flight training simulators for that type. Your pilots need to go through training on that type to "stay current". You need to be able to have relationship with the supply chain so that you can get spares and work out regular maintenance schedules. You have to think very hard about where you can operate that aircraft since there aren't as many mechanics for that new aircraft. As such, if it breaks down somewhere, you need to have mechanics there to be able to repair it. Hangar queens are a huge problem for new airline types. These are all things that take huge investment by the airlines. So the big 3 Chinese airlines are not going to stop at 5 aircraft. Don't be ridiculous. This level of fixed cost investment doesn't translate to 5 aircraft. They will order more by exercising their options or leasing one of the several hundred C919 on order with Chinese leasing firms. It's great that COMAC will be able to work with all of the big 3 airlines to get better at this after service support.

Also, keep in mind that having a large domestic market means C919 will get at least 500 orders. When you have that many aircraft in service, there will be a secondary market and plenty of spare parts. All of these reduces operating cost and risks for airlines purchasing new C919.

So don't concern yourself too much with range. Think about how quickly COMAC can get better at after service support and making airlines happy. Believe me, the big 3 Chinese airlines are not going to be enjoying flying C919 in the beginning. The first legit aircraft type by COMAC is like to have as many problem as Embraer had with E90 (might be even more).

As for indigenizing subsystems, they will obviously have to work toward that. Having a fully Western free supply chain will allow them to sell to domestic ministries, CIS countries, Iran, Venezeula, Cuba, Myanmar, North Korea and any other sanctioned countries. If C919 is successful, it will be able to sell beyond that. Don't worry too much about initial export order book. Get C919's support system worked out so that new airlines will be able to add it into their fleet more easily and then work toward fully indigenizing.

Don't worry about comparing yourself to A320NEO. Just get it to be something airlines can use.

if people want to an indigenous plane, the C919 isn't for them chief.
Even if COMAC manages to get better and source more domestic parts for new aircraft, the C919's core architecture is too entrenched in western systems for it "to easily be swapped". and breaking Copyright/patent laws to copy the western architecture without license will DEFINITELY get the c919 grounded/barred from flying internationally.

At this point COMAC is better off making a new jet around the chinese systems. a C919neo variant. or C929.

and you can forget about selling it to nations that doesn't share a direct border with china. you won't be able to deliver those jets as well.

seriously what is it with not wanting to get the c919 to have more range/efficiency anyways, more range gives it more flexibility and make it more attractive and competitive for the market.

 

[gelgoog]

You typically trade range for passenger load. It is as simple as that. For China the passenger load is more important than the range.

 

[Rowdyhorse4]

You typically trade range for passenger load. It is as simple as that. For China the passenger load is more important than the range.

How about not having to do that trade off in the C919's level yet? The aircraft having more range isn't only about how far can it go but also how efficient it is, how much it cost to carry per passenger per nautical mile.

if you were to use the A320neo at the same load and the same range as the C919, the A320neo is going to be more efficient and thus more cheaper to operate than the C919 doing the same domestic route at similar load (mind you the 320 can also carry few more passengers and more cargo than 919 despite both using the same LEAP engine).