The War in the Ukraine

[gelgoog]

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A military expert, retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev noted that so far Moscow has not yet used any hypersonic weapons on a mass scale and Ukraine’s current air defense is powerless against them.

"During the entire time of combat action, while carrying out the tasks of the special military operation, the 9-А-7660 Kinzhal hypersonic airborne system has been used only three times," the expert noted. "Only three missiles were launched and all at important targets. Meanwhile, back in 2021, in the Southern Military District, an entire platoon of the carriers of such weapons, hypersonic long-range fighter-interceptor MiG-31K aircraft, was created. So far there is no information as to how many planes it is supposed to include. Yet, I think that it is no less than 30. And their Kinzhal weapons capacity should be no fewer than 10 units per aircraft. So, potentially, Russia can hit no fewer than 300 strategic targets in Ukraine with 100% probability," the expert concluded.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Interesting, I think at the moment we are in a state like prior of 24th of February.


No one expected Russia to start a "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Now, if I thinking about the current situation then the next few month will be the best for Russia to make any military move, by next summer the weapon supply of the USA will be better, at summer the strain on the transport and electrical system of Europe will be smaller, during summer the maintanance crews will have more time to work on railways .

In the past 4-6 month the Russian military was passive, like before 24th of Feb.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

"Russia’s commitment in Eastern Ukraine is its greatest point of external vulnerability; local opposition is active and Ukraine is a larger and more capable adversary than any of the other states where Russian troops are committed.
...

The successful 2013–2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that led to the fall of the Yanukovich government touched off a dramatic Russian response for many reasons, but among these was the concern that these protests could provide a demonstration effect for anti-regime protests in Russia.
...
Expanding U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including lethal military assistance, would likely increase the costs to Russia, in both blood and treasure, of holding the Donbass region. More Russian aid to the separatists and an additional Russian troop presence would likely be required, leading to larger expenditures, equipment losses, and Russian casualties. The latter could become quite controversial at home, as it did when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.
...

Biggest mistake from the USA is the handling of this kind of issue like the there is no second order feedback.

They considered the result of they action as less in magnitude than they original actions.

From general standpoint, they worldview is like the electromagnetic interaction vs. strong interaction.

From computational standpoint the electromagnetic is easy to calculate, beacue the effect of the electron onto itself is small, but the quantum chromodynamics is tricky, becuase the effect of the quarks self feedback is in the same magnitude like the original one.

Now, the original USA strategy developed in the past century expected that the USA is the only one mass in the wordspace, and every other independent actor has magnitude less weight. Means every reaction for the USA actions magnitude less than the level required to have interaction with the USA economy.


Now, this is a different era now, the actions of the USA generating bigger reactions, means we are in a state where we can't forecast the future, and we can find ourself in very bad situation .

 

[defenceman]

I am not going to say the bombing did not have an effect because it did. It stressed their economies. But war production never stopped. And in fact both Germany and Japan were producing more weapons than in early war. Problem is it is easier to replace weapons than lost combat veterans. And one thing the US typically "forgets" to mention is that Japan did not surrender after the first atomic bomb was dropped, but after the Soviet Union declared war on Japan. That is when they knew they were toast.

Hi you are right about never stopped production line but we have to consider one thing that is at that time USA wasn’t hiding any PGMs and long range standoff ammo which can create a big hurdle to rebuild your infrastructure asap most of the ammo factories now a days robotics & computerised so a country like Ukraine need more time and better infrastructure to restart their production up to the same mark until unless they have endless supply of all kind of weapons across the border but then their are other essentials like food water electricity etc
thank you

 

[Staedler]

I am not going to say the bombing did not have an effect because it did. It stressed their economies. But war production never stopped. And in fact both Germany and Japan were producing more weapons than in early war. Problem is it is easier to replace weapons than lost combat veterans. And one thing the US typically "forgets" to mention is that Japan did not surrender after the first atomic bomb was dropped, but after the Soviet Union declared war on Japan. That is when they knew they were toast.

More than simply stressing their economies, it forced Germany to abandon the peacetime orientation of their economy and actually adopt a war economy. This meant luxuries products and services had to be cut when they had never been cut prior. In addition the bombings forced material substitution and had a marked effect on the quality of their equipment. Their ammunition and armor quality dropped quite dramatically and operational times were limited due to fuel shortages. It resulted in a lot of effort put into producing or researching inferior goods like coal-powered planes.

Similarly, in Japan the food shortages and general starvation brought about by the bombings also greatly reduced the quality of the troops the Americans faced in battle. Their ships also had greatly decreased capabilities and quality such as with the Tachibana-class destroyers. The bombings also made the fueling situation so bad in Japan that their remaining carriers and battleships basically never left their home waters because there was no fuel for any expeditions. It also hit their equipment production and research hard resulting in them basically reusing the same plane design (the Zero variants) over and over again while America constantly iterated with better and better aircraft models. The same happened to their antiaircraft weapons and supporting equipment.

Even if they hadn't lost significant amounts of their combat veterans, their combat ability would still have been severely degraded because of how much equipment quality and fueling was impacted. The counter-side was how expensive (in terms of pilots lost) and inaccurate bombing runs were back then. Those drawbacks have become much more minor these days due to how much more accurate and cheap missiles and drones are in comparison.

 

[Topazchen]

The Lancets have clearly undergone a massive upgrade .The initial kamikaze attacks were very inaccurate as per this 4 month old video

 

[tphuang]

People, please stay off arguments about why Russia entered the conflict. This is just a thread about the military part of things.

 

[obj 705A]

Interesting report saying China and Poland struck a deal, no MiG-29 for Ukraine in exchange Russia does not use nukes. Sounds like BS. Poland only has about 20 1970s MiG-29 which are barely able to fly let alone fight. These don't make any impact even if they are delivered.

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Ofcourse it's BS because where is the source? This "journalist" Owen Matthews who wrote the article claims he got the information from a source in China. And what is that source called? It's called "the Chinese source". Like come on.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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The railway in Krivoy Rog will not function for a long time due to a missile attack on the infrastructure. This was announced by the head of the military administration of the city Yevgeny Sitnichenko.

Interesting, I checked the railway network map of Ukriane.

Looks like the Zaporoznia railway bridge start from Krivoy Rog.

Means the reallocation of the Kerson ukrainan miliatary gorup getting harder, and only the Dnipro crossing left.

Interesting is the other crossings lead to Kharkiv, and the railways reachable by Lancet drones.


Means the diesel engines most likelly killed fast on that line.


Up to this point I haven't seen any video about power station, railway and so on strike.

However if the Lancets can strike tanks and trucks then railway engines should be easy targets.

And every lost diesel engine irreplacable.

 

[Virtup]

every lost diesel engine irreplacable

Why can't they simply get more from nearby countries?