Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[KYli]

Hong Kong study has already concluded that 3 doses of inactivated vaccines have similar effectiveness against covid compare with mRNA. Any extra vaccines or mix and match don't add that much benefits. A boost shot would give a few months extra protection but otherwise boost shots don't offer much benefits.

It is likely that the Chinese government would offer a boost shot soon but in the end of the day a boost shot would only offer help in short term. As I said before, the Chinese government wouldn't reopen until late Spring or early Summer due to the fact that the virus would spread more rapidly during the winter months.

 

[zgx09t]

Hmm, it has been 3 years, yet covid deaths in western countries are still quite high, i really hope that eventually it becomes mild enough for China to open up, the alternative is coastal china getting economically punished long term just due to the sheer amount of overseas arrivals making covid zero close to impossible.

China: Hold my spittoon.

 

[BoraTas]

I don't know.

To be honest, if there is sufficient public demand for "opening up and damn the consequences" then potentially the government could go ahead with it and play it in a way that it is due to consideration of consultation with the public. (Though that also adds the risk of making the public feel like they are able to make the government do anything just out of sufficient displeasure)

It goes without saying that the most important thing is that no matter what happens, the stability and legitimacy of government must not come under question in any form.

I was very supportive of quarantines from the start. I believe saving lives is the most important thing. The problem is twofold though. It feels like China is just delaying the inevitable. The rest of the world isn't even trying so Covid will not go away. Even if China completely eradicated it in China, which China managed in the past, it will just get in again. The other thing is simple public perception. The CPC is not the nanny of the Chinese people after all. If the public decides that 500-700 k deaths are acceptable then the gov should oblige by that choice.

As far as I see there is still ample support for lockdowns in China but the support is withering away since more and more lives are getting disrupted by them with no end in sight. Lockdowns were phenomenally popular in 2020 and 2021 because Covid was defeated with no disruption to the majority of the public. Now China is going through the same things the rest of the world went through in 2020 and 2021. Lockdowns are achieving nothing but they are disrupting lives. This was what killed the support and led to opening up. If the current situation continues China will open up too. There is no point in lockdowns that achieve nothing.

 

[EtherealSmoke]

Genie looks out of the bottle at this point with the increasing amount of new cases. Don't think it's possible to get back to Zero Covid even if they tried. They need to transition away from Zero Covid in an orderly manner... better messaging, temporary COVID hospitals/clinics, more aggressive vaccinations... lots that can be done.

 

[Quickie]

I was very supportive of quarantines from the start. I believe saving lives is the most important thing. The problem is twofold though. It feels like China is just delaying the inevitable. The rest of the world isn't even trying so Covid will not go away. Even if China completely eradicated it in China, which China managed in the past, it will just get in again. The other thing is simple public perception. The CPC is not the nanny of the Chinese people after all. If the public decides that 500-700 k deaths are acceptable then the gov should oblige by that choice.

As far as I see there is still ample support for lockdowns in China but the support is withering away since more and more lives are getting disrupted by them with no end in sight. Lockdowns were phenomenally popular in 2020 and 2021 because Covid was defeated with no disruption to the majority of the public. Now China is going through the same things the rest of the world went through in 2020 and 2021. Lockdowns are achieving nothing but they are disrupting lives. This was what killed the support and led to opening up. If the current situation continues China will open up too. There is no point in lockdowns that achieve nothing.

There is no point in lockdowns that achieve nothing.

Wait a minute, I thought lockdowns is to give the opportunity for the vaccination program to go its fullest course possible to avoid as many fatalities as possible. Also to discover newer ways/vaccines to fight the virus. The newly approved inhaled vaccine may yet prove to help greatly in bringing forward the opening up.

 

[zgx09t]

People fairly should be pounds wise and penny foolish, rather than the other way around. But alas!

Some people got restrictions some of time, but not all the people all the time. All the important drivers are progressing along despite temporary lock downs. Rockets are still going up, space station is expending, China is now selling planes, instead of shoes and shirts, R & D haven't slid back. China has won the Covid rounds up to now; so managing the exit is equally important. The less advantaged in any society would suffer for those trying times regardless, but in China case that would be temporary hardship, they won't die, like those in other countries, like India. Civilian disturbances are not new to China; used to have a few thousand protests every day, if we are to believe the usual rags of western journalism. China has already won the real estate situation, another scary boogie man haunting around Covid season, just compare what is already built, massive numbers of property in the cities big and small across the entire country since opening up vs. relatively meager percentage of troubled books and assets around the edges. China urbanization is about 60% now, like trillions and trillions worth of properties already built, and we should be scary about a few billions? It would be much like the debt problems in the 90s which turned out just okay. Popped it out and guide it back on track. No 2008 dramas, same would be China's handling of Covid, no few millions of deaths. China won't jump right into the fire because it's warm where she is now. Deal with the known quantity as it is, as living with Covid has unknown quantities that may or may not be fully understood or accounted for.

 

[Reclaimer]

I just hope the healthcare system can handle the increase in hospitalizations to come. Zero covid has saved lives and bought time to prepare, but it will slowly become unsustainable as the protests/rioting seems to be getting bigger with each new lockdown. It also doesn't help that there are logistical difficulties with implementing effective and safe lockdowns.

The central government may need to relax zero covid policies further.

 

[ficker22]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596377153695670273

Too many covid cases in china, while cases have decreased alot in all over the world. What's going on ?

Ääähm......

35k daily for 1.400.000.000 peoples not alot.


We got 30K in Germany daily and have 84.000.000 people, of which 200 - 250 die each day, so ....


And we even had the MRNA shit, 5 times or so by now.

 

[Hadoren]

I think China's current strategy is correct, with the exception of long lockdowns.

China's going through its first great COVID wave. This is something that has happened to every country and is impossible to stop. There will inevitably be disruption and deaths - perhaps similar to Singapore's rate, which translates to ~400,000 deaths.

China is correctly slowing the spread as much as possible, in order to diminish the degree to which hospitals are overwhelmed. This is done through closing public facilities, closing restaurants, quarantining the sick, asking people to stay home, and so forth. Long lockdowns do more damage than good at this point and are unnecessary.

Long lockdowns are also a threat to the CPC. They are causing growing, increasing protests. There are now multiple big protests every week. These are the biggest protests in China since 1989. And it's still just November.

 

[Quan8410]

I think China's current strategy is correct, with the exception of long lockdowns.

China's going through its first great COVID wave. This is something that has happened to every country and is impossible to stop. There will inevitably be disruption and deaths - perhaps similar to Singapore's rate, which translates to ~400,000 deaths.

China is correctly slowing the spread as much as possible, in order to diminish the degree to which hospitals are overwhelmed. This is done through closing public facilities, closing restaurants, quarantining the sick, asking people to stay home, and so forth. Long lockdowns do more damage than good at this point and are unnecessary.

Long lockdowns are also a threat to the CPC. They are causing growing, increasing protests. There are now multiple big protests every week. These are the biggest protests in China since 1989. And it's still just November.

Long lockdown is because authorities delayed lockdown in the first place. If authorities lockdown correctly in the first place like Shenzhen, there will be no long lockdown. Seemed like local government (and even central government show signed of) just concerned about saving economy more than saving lives. As I said, easing quarantine rules and still allow public transportation for travelers from other provinces are pure mistakes.