antiterror13
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True ... and don't forget China could do the same ... imagine that as now almost everything made in and by China ..... including many critical components, medicines, etc, etc
Pandora Box would be widely open
Chinese semiconductor industry
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True ... and don't forget China could do the same ... imagine that as now almost everything made in and by China ..... including many critical components, medicines, etc, etc
Pandora Box would be widely open
That's exactly what happened in the telecom equipment sector. People now forget the dominance of North American firms like AT&T/Lucent (owner of Bell Labs), Nortel Networks, and Motorola in the 1980's. When the US imposed sanctions on telecom equipment exports to China in the early 1990s, no one could have imagined that in less than 20 years of time, not only would North American firms lose their dominance but they would actually cease to exist completely, while Chinese firms that no one had heard of at the time (Huawei and ZTE) would become major players in the sector. Things could very well have turned out differently without those US sanctions in the early 1990s.
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The US using export control tools on a European Union member would be politically a hard sell. I don't see European governments retaliating, they usually bend backward. But the business community wouldn't forget it.
Sanctions on the NS2 led to significant tensions between the USA and Western Europe and the USA had to backtrack until Russia invaded Ukraine again.
TSMC is a soft target. Most of its customers are American fabless companies. Taiwan itself is basically a US protectorate which means no support from the Taiwanese gov to TSMC. TSMC will be harvested by the USA. There is no stopping it.
Some figures are already crying about the European lawsuits on Twitter. They describe it as Europeans forcing an American company to pay them money. Quite funny. Their reaction to the EU using FDP to stop America from selling weapons to SA or Israel would be explosive. Americans tend to outrage when others do what they do.
Would you please stop with the propaganda.
Personally speaking, I would love to see ASML get sanctioned by the Americans when ASML continues to sell to China.
America would sanction ASML, and ASML will continue to sell to China, and ASML won't sell anything to the Americans in retailation because they got sanctioned by these same Americans.
This is a fight after all.
How do we like that!
The politburo in Beijing luving it like a Big Mac commercial.
Agree, they can't resist. Morris Chang and Taiwanese are acting under duress. Any US sanctions means they will lose their assets, livelihoods and can't trade without US approvals. Too late to do anything now. But Europe is starting to resist and have changed their tunes.
A slide from Nexchip. Cool. Just for reference this is their fab. Or should I say their fabs. They look like this from satellite.
Each fab is supposed to produce 40,000 wafers per month of 300mm size. The company makes LCD display driver ICs I think.
Looks like the shell for fab no. 2 should be ready soon if it is not already. It is not like public sites update these pictures that often.
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Actually China is in hurry, as it should be because it's a race against time.
US will never stop.
After they will successfully ban DUV, they will move forward to ban any kind of Western of equipment: once US companies do not sell in China anymore, even the last reason to hold back with bans will vanish and they will go full decoupling. History taught us many times that US startegy is always very simple and straightforward: they don't indulge in nuances or subtleties. Their strategy is always brute-force: There's one thing I don't like? I kill it.
I agree with @BoraTas here, EU will never retaliate. The strategy of Europe is to slowdown and water down as much as they can. Europe's goal is to buy time....and this goes at advantage of China. too.
But once US will enforce the ban, Europe will not retaliate, and ASML will be forced to comply. This has nothing to do with what is legal or what is fair. This is pure power-play.
TSMC future is bound to US, they will depend more and more on US. TSMC will became a kind of US company, maybe not formally, but de facto. They will lose any strategic independence. The reason for TSMC to build a 3nm fab in US (people included) seems to be a strong push by Apple that does not want its most critical supply chain to depend on a shaky, small island. US and Intel will harvest TSMC fully.
China should just "surf" the decoupling wave, remaining always a bit ahead of the latest ban, be always a bit faster in localizing than US is in banning, so that the wave does not overwhelm them.
In hindsight, I can see two big miscalculations.
(1) China relied too much on businesses to go their way. But companies follow their rules, that are business rules, not geopolitical rules. And (2) leaving localization of lithography machine to a small and resources limited company like SMEE has been a mistake. SMEE developed some machine already ten years ago, but when these machines did not materialize in volume production, this should have rang an alarm bell, that didn't ring until very recently. China has a huge , with tens of thousands of scientist and researchers. They underestimated the problem and the complexity of a litho machine and now China found itself relying on a small and sovereignty-limited European state, which is trying its best to resist the tiger. China should not find itself hoping in Dutch government!
...but in hindsight everything is very easy.
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Number of countries defying US is increasing. US cannot stop them all.
China: since forever
Russia: ukrainian war
UAE: huawei
Quatar: huawei
Saudi Arabia: not changing oil price, buy Chinese weapons.
Germany: increase trade with China despite heavy pressure
Turkey: Bomb US oil field in Syria
Serbia seems to be acting on Kosovo.
I think Netherland stands a chance in resisting if those other nations are acting in tandem.
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