China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

The question is what is the point of a sub that just sits in the SCS or the Bohai sea? That doesn't provide any better of a shooting position than being on land.

Isn't the whole point of subs that they are supposed to roam, for example prowl around in the Gulf of Mexico? That seems like a bigger elephant here than the range. Even if the missile has the range, if it has to travel that far, it is susceptible to being intercepted. A shorter range missile mounted on a sub fired from offshore but nearby is much harder to intercept in time. That provides much stronger deterrent value.

cover and concealment. even a stationary sub has substantially more cover and concealment than a silo, and can fire from a concealed position.

TELs moving around in mountainous forest with underground bunkers have to emerge from the bunkers to fire, which is a small but potentially exploitable point of weakness.

The tradeoff is higher cost and poorer readiness, communication and situational awareness, as well as the possibility of being sunk beforehand since its harder to post guards.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Sure, but only if those PLAN SSBNs are capable of scurrying into the Gulf of Mexico and/or off the Pacific coastline AND conduct deterrence patrols there for long periods of time without getting detected, tracked and hunted by the USN for the entire duration.

You see US subs roaming the world, though. Why can the US track Chinese subs in the Gulf of Mexico but China can't track US subs, in, for example, the East China Sea?

 

[tphuang]

I think they get the designation wrong, this very "JL-3" is probably an upgraded version of JL-2, with aerospike, more advanced carbon fiber.
Why do they make it a such a big deal, I mean it can carry 3 x 150kt-200kt warheads and that's it. Perhaps sending a signal that US can track loading process with their keyhole satellite? But the missile comes with canister and JL-2A didn't change that much in diameter or length, how do they tell whether it is JL-2 or JL-2A.

It is not a secret that PLAN didn't satisfy with JL-2 when 094 appeared unloaded and undeployed in CCTV report, and they were waiting for SLBM to reach CONUS and finally got them in tubes. US intelligence could just see the rapid deployment of JL-2A and determine it is "JL-3" instead of old JL-2.

I think this is more likely to be JL-2A because my perception was that JL3 is wider and can't fit into 094. However given what I've seen from US intelligence in the past year, I would not dismiss their claims here.

Reporters ask these kind of questions all the time. We hear US military report on China's nuclear capabilities from time to time. This is not abnormal. I've been seeing statements for the past 15 years.

I think a while back, they were saying that 8 094s have joined service. That means either the earliest 094s are not capable or not loaded with this longer SLBM. Or more likely, the first 6 have now been loaded with them and the final 2 are still waiting to fully be ready for patrol. Having 6 SSBNs in service is quite different from having 6 SSBNs in service and loaded with nuclear tipped missiles capable of destroying cities 12000 km away. All of them are also quite new and should be able to regularly patrol. In a few more years, China might have 10 loaded 094s in service. That's plenty of deterrence imo.

In comparison, USN has 14 Ohio SSBNs. They are all pretty old and who knows how many are able to patrol at any given tie. Russia technically has about the same number of SSBNs in service, but who knows how many are capable of actually going out on patrol.

JL-2 is basically a submarine launched DF-31, both have a range of 8,000 km when they were approved into design phase in 1984.

IMO DF-31AG is a safe bet for specification of JL-2A, around 11,500 km with only one 650kt warhead. Personally I think the real range will be slight higher than 12,000km, because the design team was awarded for making "the SLBM with longest range" back in 2018.

I don't mind people like Hans playing down these threat, since it's not a good thing for too many natsec people getting alarmed. But from a long time ago, I've seen "big shrimps" say that 12000 km for China is global range. Therefore, I'd be very surprised if they build JL-2A that's not at least 11 to 12000 km.

SCS can hit anywhere along west coast with 12000km range. Aside from Florida, you can reach anywhere in CONUS from Bohai and Yellow sea.

The question is what is the point of a sub that just sits in the SCS or the Bohai sea? That doesn't provide any better of a shooting position than being on land.

Isn't the whole point of subs that they are supposed to roam, for example prowl around in the Gulf of Mexico? That seems like a bigger elephant here than the range. Even if the missile has the range, if it has to travel that far, it is susceptible to being intercepted. A shorter range missile mounted on a sub fired from offshore but nearby is much harder to intercept in time. That provides much stronger deterrent value.

SCS and Bohai (and even yellow sea) are just about the safest place for 094s. Remember, Russian SSBNs get tracked as soon as they leave their ports for USN SSNs. China has packed its nearby water (especially SCS and yellow sea) with so many sensors and have so many MPAs that they can effective detect most USN incursions.

Remember, the point of nuclear deterrent is to convince the other side that it would be a terrible idea to launch nukes against you. As long as it takes away the possibility of nuclear blackmail, 094s and all those silos have served their purpose.

 

[sunnymaxi]

In a few more years, China might have 10 loaded 094s in service. That's plenty of deterrence imo.

i think total 8 type 094 will be produced.

after that type 096 will enter in service. design and new technologies have finalized. Submarine news are too secretive so we don't know when this submarine will enter in production.

 

[tphuang]

i think total 8 type 094 will be produced.

after that type 096 will enter in service. design and new technologies have finalized. Submarine news are too secretive so we don't know when this submarine will enter in production.

Us intelligence reported 8 094s have already joined service. Since we are still probably 5 years away from 095s, 096 will be even farther away. I think 10 094s are quite likely. Allow 4 to 5 to be out on patrol during war time. That's plenty of deterrence.

 

[Kalec]

I think this is more likely to be JL-2A because my perception was that JL3 is wider and can't fit into 094. However given what I've seen from US intelligence in the past year, I would not dismiss their claims here.

Reporters ask these kind of questions all the time. We hear US military report on China's nuclear capabilities from time to time. This is not abnormal. I've been seeing statements for the past 15 years.

In fact I am very skeptical of US intelligence on Chinese nuclear capability since it has long history of misleading public. Nuclear expert didn't do a better job than public report either but they do have expertise on satellite assessment and space monitoring. I am not blaming them because US nuclear intelligence is mainly focusing on Soviet nuclear assessment and Chinese ambiguity on nuclear messaging. China is not a country their nuclear establishment cared about for decades.

JL-2A has been put in test no later than 2018 and probably entered in service some point after 2020, it is not a novel finding and tbh they are late to the party for at least 2 years. And it is not designation itself, no one knows exactly what the designation number is until being unveiled in military parade. But also their claim on MIRV is very dubious and in fact no one is expecting a MIRVed JL-2A in China.

 

[SEAD]

You see US subs roaming the world, though. Why can the US track Chinese subs in the Gulf of Mexico but China can't track US subs, in, for example, the East China Sea?

Because US has several dozens(>50) of silent SSNs while China only has several ones (<5).

 

[SEAD]

I think this is more likely to be JL-2A because my perception was that JL3 is wider and can't fit into 094. However given what I've seen from US intelligence in the past year, I would not dismiss their claims here.

Reporters ask these kind of questions all the time. We hear US military report on China's nuclear capabilities from time to time. This is not abnormal. I've been seeing statements for the past 15 years.

I think a while back, they were saying that 8 094s have joined service. That means either the earliest 094s are not capable or not loaded with this longer SLBM. Or more likely, the first 6 have now been loaded with them and the final 2 are still waiting to fully be ready for patrol. Having 6 SSBNs in service is quite different from having 6 SSBNs in service and loaded with nuclear tipped missiles capable of destroying cities 12000 km away. All of them are also quite new and should be able to regularly patrol. In a few more years, China might have 10 loaded 094s in service. That's plenty of deterrence imo.

In comparison, USN has 14 Ohio SSBNs. They are all pretty old and who knows how many are able to patrol at any given tie. Russia technically has about the same number of SSBNs in service, but who knows how many are capable of actually going out on patrol.


I don't mind people like Hans playing down these threat, since it's not a good thing for too many natsec people getting alarmed. But from a long time ago, I've seen "big shrimps" say that 12000 km for China is global range. Therefore, I'd be very surprised if they build JL-2A that's not at least 11 to 12000 km.

SCS can hit anywhere along west coast with 12000km range. Aside from Florida, you can reach anywhere in CONUS from Bohai and Yellow sea.

SCS and Bohai (and even yellow sea) are just about the safest place for 094s. Remember, Russian SSBNs get tracked as soon as they leave their ports for USN SSNs. China has packed its nearby water (especially SCS and yellow sea) with so many sensors and have so many MPAs that they can effective detect most USN incursions.

Remember, the point of nuclear deterrent is to convince the other side that it would be a terrible idea to launch nukes against you. As long as it takes away the possibility of nuclear blackmail, 094s and all those silos have served their purpose.

Bohai is not suitable for SSBN since it’s soooo shallow(~20m) that not only satellites can catch them with optical sensors but also easy to run ashore(think about its diameter)

 

[tphuang]

Bohai is not suitable for SSBN since it’s soooo shallow(~20m) that not only satellites can catch them with optical sensors but also easy to stranded.

hmm, it can be any from Bohai and yellow sea, that's a large area. I doubt satellite can just spot it. Satellites can even reliably track surface warships and you want them to detect submarines now? Also, it doesn't matter even if you can spot it, You still need to get close to enough to send torpedoes against it. All the silo locations are well known and they are still considered an important part of the second strike fore.

 

[SEAD]

hmm, it can be any from Bohai and yellow sea, that's a large area. I doubt satellite can just spot it. Satellites can even reliably track surface warships and you want them to detect submarines now? Also, it doesn't matter even if you can spot it, You still need to get close to enough to send torpedoes against it. All the silo locations are well known and they are still considered an important part of the second strike fore.

In satellite images, subs diving <10m is as clear as a surface ship, especially for SSBNs, after all they are so large.

And, imagine a submarine with 13m diameter swimming in a 20m pool
Forget SSBN, slowly moving UUVs with SLBM are what you need in such a situation.