In fact, 200m depth is necessary for completely avoiding satellite tracking considering wake flow.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Another ballistic missile coming up but different with the previous cancelled one.
It seems to be launched from Jilantai training center instead of normally Taiyuan, could it be readiness or pre-deployment test?
Target zone is likely to be Minfeng impact zone.
I'm not sure if you are being deliberately obtuse or not.
Why do you think China can't track US subs in the East China Sea?
Furthermore, how on earth does that even relate to his previous point?
Do you recognize what "being able to track a submarine for its entire duration" means in terms of physical assets and basing?
It means that if I want to track your submarine for its entire global distance deterrence mission, I can track it from right outside of your doorstep because I have a permanently forward based presence in your hemisphere of the world, and as your submarine leaves port, my prepositioned assets in the region can give me a much better chance at tracking your submarines even if they are very stealthy and quiet.
Those permanently forward prepositioned assets, as well as the rest of my air and naval bases around the world, will allow me to have a good chance of achieving constant monitoring of your submarine as it goes from:
"Base -> transit -> mission area"
The US has a global military presence around the world, including in the western pacific close on China's doorstep, allowing it to allocate assets to do the tracking of Chinese submarines in the "base -> transit -> mission area" cycle and it allows the US to achieve handover between those stages in a way that China cannot do.
Of course, developing more stealthy submarines as well as supporting assets to try and interfere with US peacetime ASW and tracking operations can be done -- but it doesn't change the fact that the US has a massive network of bases on China's doorstep.
Meanwhile, China doesn't have a massive network of bases within 500nmi of the US coast, and doesn't have a massive network of bases spanning the entire pacific and atlantic either.
That means they are only able to try to detect and track US submarines once US submarines have reached the "mission area" (i.e.: western pacific, in China's case).
Now, Chinese ASW has improved in leaps and bounds over the years, but that doesn't change the geographical reality of the basing of physical assets and infrastructure.
AssassinsMace
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Since when were Chinese subs travelling through the Gulf of Mexico? That would be huge news if that were happening. It's either it's not happening or Chinese subs are that quiet and assuming is the only thing left.
So the lesson seems to be that in order to have submarine warfare parity, China would have to have a network of bases worldwide.
The lesson is that there is a relationship between geopolitical dominance, global basing options, and military power projection capability, and sometimes you cannot talk about one of them without directly addressing the others.
Think about it -- if China were somehow able to attain a network of bases worldwide that was similar to that of the US, then chances are the global geopolitical balance would not look anything like the way it is today anyhow.
That in turn would result in a whole heap of bigger and more substantive military changes than mere "submarine warfare parity".
First of all, I never suggested that they should operate 094s at 20 m depth. Although I wouldn't preclude option of moving into such depth. Secondly, there is so much activity going on in Bohai/Yellow sea. Idea that satellite can track 094s moving around slowly using wake flow seems far fetched (even if they are operating pretty shallow). Even finding a carrier in the middle of the Ocean with satellites is not easy. You want satellite to find a couple of 094s that are moving within first island chain between East, Yellow and Bohai sea by wake flow?
Keep in mind that diesel subs operate closer to the surface and MPAs are still normally only able to spot them when they are snorkeling or surfacing or using MAD/sonobuoys.
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AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The US is worried about asymmetrical warfare. Why would they be worried if the enemy has to match everything the US does to have a chance at winning? They're worried because you don't have do and have everything like the US to win.
That's why if China can develop a hypersonic glide vehicle that can drop conventional bombs from space, it will be the most terrifying weapon for Americans because no American will be safe. The US taunted Prompt Global Strike as if it was a game-changer. Not for every potential adversary of the US because the US can drop a bomb anywhere in the world without it. It's called the same as usual. But China having it... it's not the same as usual because Americans never had to fear bombs dropping on their homes from an enemy. If it was a nuke, there would be nuclear retaliation. Not with a conventional bomb. Oh they can threaten nuclear retaliation just for a conventional bomb exploding at home but the West has always been doing that to everyone else which means if they drop a conventional bomb on any other country, that deserves a nuclear response in return if they believe they have that right. Yes open that can of worms because any country that can deliver a convention bomb to Western homelands also has the capability to deliver nukes. If Chinese subs are traversing the Gulf of Mexico, Americans would be up in arms like how they didn't like Soviet nukes parked 90 miles off the US in Cuba while hypocritically having US nukes across the border from the Soviet Union.
The US says Russia is committing war crimes because civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is being targeted. That's what the US does at the start of all their wars against other countries. They always assume that China will start the war. No they want to stop China for being a competitor. That's not a crime and no country in their right mind will stop its economy just to comfort Americans who can't compete. That's where they will start the war and what's more of a good excuse for China to drop conventional bombs on the US from a war the US starts because they can't compete economically with China which is no crime to any civilized person?
That's why if China can develop a hypersonic glide vehicle that can drop conventional bombs from space, it will be the most terrifying weapon for Americans because no American will be safe. The US taunted Prompt Global Strike as if it was a game-changer. Not for every potential adversary of the US because the US can drop a bomb anywhere in the world without it. It's called the same as usual. But China having it... it's not the same as usual because Americans never had to fear bombs dropping on their homes from an enemy. If it was a nuke, there would be nuclear retaliation. Not with a conventional bomb. Oh they can threaten nuclear retaliation just for a conventional bomb exploding at home but the West has always been doing that to everyone else which means if they drop a conventional bomb on any other country, that deserves a nuclear response in return if they believe they have that right. Yes open that can of worms because any country that can deliver a convention bomb to Western homelands also has the capability to deliver nukes. If Chinese subs are traversing the Gulf of Mexico, Americans would be up in arms like how they didn't like Soviet nukes parked 90 miles off the US in Cuba while hypocritically having US nukes across the border from the Soviet Union.
The US says Russia is committing war crimes because civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is being targeted. That's what the US does at the start of all their wars against other countries. They always assume that China will start the war. No they want to stop China for being a competitor. That's not a crime and no country in their right mind will stop its economy just to comfort Americans who can't compete. That's where they will start the war and what's more of a good excuse for China to drop conventional bombs on the US from a war the US starts because they can't compete economically with China which is no crime to any civilized person?
陈虎, a former senior colonel in the PLA said Bohai and Yellow Sea is unsuitable for ballistic submarines because shockwaves from nuclear explosions travel much further in shallow waters.
Sure, but submarine military parity would be one very important change.
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