Due to a series of event by 2025 China will be in a unique position to plan for military. For the past decades China had been on the reactive side on defense. This is due to either econmic opportunity cost and lacking in certain military areas. While China could win a conflict it was never a good choice. Starting from 2025 these factors will change. China would be able to plan on offense on issues such as Taiwan, and be much less restrained. This thread is to discuss how can China go on offense and succeed with minimal opportunity cost.
Stuff problematic today that will be resolved by 2025:
1. Lacking stealth strategic bomber to apply consistent pressure, overrelying on ballistic missile making a drawn out conflict troublesome.
2. Lacking enough carriers and 5th gen naval aviation meant hard to protect trade routes farther than neighborhood.
3. Semi conductor reliant on hostile nations.
4. Lacking advanced nuclear submarine to pressure enemy afar.
5. Quantity of 5th gen aircraft greatly outnumbered by potential enemies. Bad in case of combat attrition.
6. While leading in emergent industry like battery and EV China is not scaling them up globally yet. War will disrupt those growth. Growth of these industry disrupt foriegn auto industry, making them hostage, and disrupt their ability to make military dual use products.
However solving these key problems does not make a war go in China's way. There are still problems unsolved by 2025. Preferably all of these can be resolved before China attempt going on offense.
Stuff problematic today remain problematic in 2025:
1. Civil aviation still reliant on EU or USA. Local alternative available but lacks scaling up. It is possible to stock up spare parts, but those money still go in US MIC like Boeing.
2. USD while greatly diminished in use as reserve currency will still remain king for the decade. USA can finance the war with money printing without full consequences. If USA must pick between non-intervention or an unavoidable financial crisis they will be much less enthusiastic to compete.
3. US diplomatic influence remain strong. EU is still a steadfast ally despite Ukraine fiasco. Japan still is a staunch ally. South Korea can be scared to neutral easier but we cannot count on it. If those alliance can be neutralized it will greatly disrupt US effort to sustain prolonged conflict in the region.
4. While new Chinese design like H20 can finally achieve qualitative parity they will be slower to scale up compared to matured designs.
While China will not be fully ready to go on offense in 2025, they will have much reduced constraint relative to today. It becomes an issue of how can China overcome these issues at 2025? What do you think needs to be done? These are my personal thoughts.
1. China should use the years after 2025 to scale up civil aviation. It should secure domestic supply during wars. It also disrupt American effort to arm race with poorer civil aviation industry.
2. Inertia of dollar institution is too strong to fully collapse. Yuan will not be suitable as replacement due to China being export oriented. The only way is to promote local currency exchange. On the use of dollar the obvious target is to make petro dollar collapse. This will not happen easily. China needs heavy investment in middle east to protect whoever dare to oppose petro dollar. That is assuming those country are willing to change. What condition does China need to fulfill to make it happen? I frankly have no clue.
3. EU is China's biggest trade partner. Although it will be difficult to sway them it is worth a try. One way is to weaken EU by making use of internal member conflict. Make sure EU is too weak to order everyone around and have willing members negotiate with China alone. Sea trade will be difficult, those are best done via land rail. Some states will be too entrenched in American interest to sway. That is a reality China must accept and work around. Japan can be partially neutralized by targeting civil auto industry using EV competition. It will affect their economy to rearm and willingness to aid US. However US influence is too strong to rely on Japan to stay out of China's way. South Korea is easier to neutralize, but it still has a powerful military to be reckon with. China should prepare for the worst even if they are eaiser to sway.
4. By then last 5 year plan is over. It is possible to plan a more military focused 5 year plan. Notably previous years technology is growing too fast to settle for a matured design. By 2025 those technology should be ready, and China can scale up designs like H20, 004 carrier, Type 96 submarine, and J-20 ws15. China has the efficiency in people, with sufficient money quantity issue can be resolved.
Reading to here you may want to ask why 2025? Why plan so early? 2025 is indeed earliest one should start planning. Any earlier it is not realistic. Once again, this don't mean 2025 is optimal time for initiating a conflict. It is up to China to prepare, actively shape up optimal environment while waiting, and act when a golden opportunity arrises. Without sufficient preparation, these opportunity will just slid by. Those opportunity may include cases similar to 2020 covid, Ukrainian war, 2008 financial crisis, and etc. Once again I am not one of those who set an arbitrary date like "China must have Taiwan by 2027". I however do think China between 2025 to 2030 is strong enough to seize rare opportunity to initiate offense while suffer minimum drawbacks. Lets be real, stuff like high tech sanction China is already taking them. Things like energy security is already looked at. Western countries' strongest sanction measure on Russia I can safely say "barely affect 2025+ China". Militarily 2025 environment is also favorable. Post 2025 China can seize opportunistic offense and they should prime themselves for it!
The last point of discussion is whether China should seize earlier opportunity or wait longer in 2030's and initiate offense whenever. It has its advantage and disadvantage. China will be better prepared and safer, but risk internal uncertainties. For example will Xi still be with us? Will his succesor be ready to take on major international issue before settling down domestically? Right now Xi wields unparalleled level of power and with that comes stability. I think major international issues such as initiating a war is best done in his tenure. Xi can serve another term by 2027, but any time after 2032 he will be trully too old to handle things. This is why I propose best initiating conflict between 2025 to 2032. Although not a hard requirement any time after 2032 we might have to wait longer for the new guy to settle in first.
Stuff problematic today that will be resolved by 2025:
1. Lacking stealth strategic bomber to apply consistent pressure, overrelying on ballistic missile making a drawn out conflict troublesome.
2. Lacking enough carriers and 5th gen naval aviation meant hard to protect trade routes farther than neighborhood.
3. Semi conductor reliant on hostile nations.
4. Lacking advanced nuclear submarine to pressure enemy afar.
5. Quantity of 5th gen aircraft greatly outnumbered by potential enemies. Bad in case of combat attrition.
6. While leading in emergent industry like battery and EV China is not scaling them up globally yet. War will disrupt those growth. Growth of these industry disrupt foriegn auto industry, making them hostage, and disrupt their ability to make military dual use products.
However solving these key problems does not make a war go in China's way. There are still problems unsolved by 2025. Preferably all of these can be resolved before China attempt going on offense.
Stuff problematic today remain problematic in 2025:
1. Civil aviation still reliant on EU or USA. Local alternative available but lacks scaling up. It is possible to stock up spare parts, but those money still go in US MIC like Boeing.
2. USD while greatly diminished in use as reserve currency will still remain king for the decade. USA can finance the war with money printing without full consequences. If USA must pick between non-intervention or an unavoidable financial crisis they will be much less enthusiastic to compete.
3. US diplomatic influence remain strong. EU is still a steadfast ally despite Ukraine fiasco. Japan still is a staunch ally. South Korea can be scared to neutral easier but we cannot count on it. If those alliance can be neutralized it will greatly disrupt US effort to sustain prolonged conflict in the region.
4. While new Chinese design like H20 can finally achieve qualitative parity they will be slower to scale up compared to matured designs.
While China will not be fully ready to go on offense in 2025, they will have much reduced constraint relative to today. It becomes an issue of how can China overcome these issues at 2025? What do you think needs to be done? These are my personal thoughts.
1. China should use the years after 2025 to scale up civil aviation. It should secure domestic supply during wars. It also disrupt American effort to arm race with poorer civil aviation industry.
2. Inertia of dollar institution is too strong to fully collapse. Yuan will not be suitable as replacement due to China being export oriented. The only way is to promote local currency exchange. On the use of dollar the obvious target is to make petro dollar collapse. This will not happen easily. China needs heavy investment in middle east to protect whoever dare to oppose petro dollar. That is assuming those country are willing to change. What condition does China need to fulfill to make it happen? I frankly have no clue.
3. EU is China's biggest trade partner. Although it will be difficult to sway them it is worth a try. One way is to weaken EU by making use of internal member conflict. Make sure EU is too weak to order everyone around and have willing members negotiate with China alone. Sea trade will be difficult, those are best done via land rail. Some states will be too entrenched in American interest to sway. That is a reality China must accept and work around. Japan can be partially neutralized by targeting civil auto industry using EV competition. It will affect their economy to rearm and willingness to aid US. However US influence is too strong to rely on Japan to stay out of China's way. South Korea is easier to neutralize, but it still has a powerful military to be reckon with. China should prepare for the worst even if they are eaiser to sway.
4. By then last 5 year plan is over. It is possible to plan a more military focused 5 year plan. Notably previous years technology is growing too fast to settle for a matured design. By 2025 those technology should be ready, and China can scale up designs like H20, 004 carrier, Type 96 submarine, and J-20 ws15. China has the efficiency in people, with sufficient money quantity issue can be resolved.
Reading to here you may want to ask why 2025? Why plan so early? 2025 is indeed earliest one should start planning. Any earlier it is not realistic. Once again, this don't mean 2025 is optimal time for initiating a conflict. It is up to China to prepare, actively shape up optimal environment while waiting, and act when a golden opportunity arrises. Without sufficient preparation, these opportunity will just slid by. Those opportunity may include cases similar to 2020 covid, Ukrainian war, 2008 financial crisis, and etc. Once again I am not one of those who set an arbitrary date like "China must have Taiwan by 2027". I however do think China between 2025 to 2030 is strong enough to seize rare opportunity to initiate offense while suffer minimum drawbacks. Lets be real, stuff like high tech sanction China is already taking them. Things like energy security is already looked at. Western countries' strongest sanction measure on Russia I can safely say "barely affect 2025+ China". Militarily 2025 environment is also favorable. Post 2025 China can seize opportunistic offense and they should prime themselves for it!
The last point of discussion is whether China should seize earlier opportunity or wait longer in 2030's and initiate offense whenever. It has its advantage and disadvantage. China will be better prepared and safer, but risk internal uncertainties. For example will Xi still be with us? Will his succesor be ready to take on major international issue before settling down domestically? Right now Xi wields unparalleled level of power and with that comes stability. I think major international issues such as initiating a war is best done in his tenure. Xi can serve another term by 2027, but any time after 2032 he will be trully too old to handle things. This is why I propose best initiating conflict between 2025 to 2032. Although not a hard requirement any time after 2032 we might have to wait longer for the new guy to settle in first.
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