Strategic Opportunity 2025: Chinese Offensive Planning


TK3600

Junior Member
Registered Member
Due to a series of event by 2025 China will be in a unique position to plan for military. For the past decades China had been on the reactive side on defense. This is due to either econmic opportunity cost and lacking in certain military areas. While China could win a conflict it was never a good choice. Starting from 2025 these factors will change. China would be able to plan on offense on issues such as Taiwan, and be much less restrained. This thread is to discuss how can China go on offense and succeed with minimal opportunity cost.

Stuff problematic today that will be resolved by 2025:

1. Lacking stealth strategic bomber to apply consistent pressure, overrelying on ballistic missile making a drawn out conflict troublesome.

2. Lacking enough carriers and 5th gen naval aviation meant hard to protect trade routes farther than neighborhood.

3. Semi conductor reliant on hostile nations.

4. Lacking advanced nuclear submarine to pressure enemy afar.

5. Quantity of 5th gen aircraft greatly outnumbered by potential enemies. Bad in case of combat attrition.

6. While leading in emergent industry like battery and EV China is not scaling them up globally yet. War will disrupt those growth. Growth of these industry disrupt foriegn auto industry, making them hostage, and disrupt their ability to make military dual use products.


However solving these key problems does not make a war go in China's way. There are still problems unsolved by 2025. Preferably all of these can be resolved before China attempt going on offense.


Stuff problematic today remain problematic in 2025:

1. Civil aviation still reliant on EU or USA. Local alternative available but lacks scaling up. It is possible to stock up spare parts, but those money still go in US MIC like Boeing.

2. USD while greatly diminished in use as reserve currency will still remain king for the decade. USA can finance the war with money printing without full consequences. If USA must pick between non-intervention or an unavoidable financial crisis they will be much less enthusiastic to compete.

3. US diplomatic influence remain strong. EU is still a steadfast ally despite Ukraine fiasco. Japan still is a staunch ally. South Korea can be scared to neutral easier but we cannot count on it. If those alliance can be neutralized it will greatly disrupt US effort to sustain prolonged conflict in the region.

4. While new Chinese design like H20 can finally achieve qualitative parity they will be slower to scale up compared to matured designs.

While China will not be fully ready to go on offense in 2025, they will have much reduced constraint relative to today. It becomes an issue of how can China overcome these issues at 2025? What do you think needs to be done? These are my personal thoughts.

1. China should use the years after 2025 to scale up civil aviation. It should secure domestic supply during wars. It also disrupt American effort to arm race with poorer civil aviation industry.

2. Inertia of dollar institution is too strong to fully collapse. Yuan will not be suitable as replacement due to China being export oriented. The only way is to promote local currency exchange. On the use of dollar the obvious target is to make petro dollar collapse. This will not happen easily. China needs heavy investment in middle east to protect whoever dare to oppose petro dollar. That is assuming those country are willing to change. What condition does China need to fulfill to make it happen? I frankly have no clue.

3. EU is China's biggest trade partner. Although it will be difficult to sway them it is worth a try. One way is to weaken EU by making use of internal member conflict. Make sure EU is too weak to order everyone around and have willing members negotiate with China alone. Sea trade will be difficult, those are best done via land rail. Some states will be too entrenched in American interest to sway. That is a reality China must accept and work around. Japan can be partially neutralized by targeting civil auto industry using EV competition. It will affect their economy to rearm and willingness to aid US. However US influence is too strong to rely on Japan to stay out of China's way. South Korea is easier to neutralize, but it still has a powerful military to be reckon with. China should prepare for the worst even if they are eaiser to sway.

4. By then last 5 year plan is over. It is possible to plan a more military focused 5 year plan. Notably previous years technology is growing too fast to settle for a matured design. By 2025 those technology should be ready, and China can scale up designs like H20, 004 carrier, Type 96 submarine, and J-20 ws15. China has the efficiency in people, with sufficient money quantity issue can be resolved.


Reading to here you may want to ask why 2025? Why plan so early? 2025 is indeed earliest one should start planning. Any earlier it is not realistic. Once again, this don't mean 2025 is optimal time for initiating a conflict. It is up to China to prepare, actively shape up optimal environment while waiting, and act when a golden opportunity arrises. Without sufficient preparation, these opportunity will just slid by. Those opportunity may include cases similar to 2020 covid, Ukrainian war, 2008 financial crisis, and etc. Once again I am not one of those who set an arbitrary date like "China must have Taiwan by 2027". I however do think China between 2025 to 2030 is strong enough to seize rare opportunity to initiate offense while suffer minimum drawbacks. Lets be real, stuff like high tech sanction China is already taking them. Things like energy security is already looked at. Western countries' strongest sanction measure on Russia I can safely say "barely affect 2025+ China". Militarily 2025 environment is also favorable. Post 2025 China can seize opportunistic offense and they should prime themselves for it!

The last point of discussion is whether China should seize earlier opportunity or wait longer in 2030's and initiate offense whenever. It has its advantage and disadvantage. China will be better prepared and safer, but risk internal uncertainties. For example will Xi still be with us? Will his succesor be ready to take on major international issue before settling down domestically? Right now Xi wields unparalleled level of power and with that comes stability. I think major international issues such as initiating a war is best done in his tenure. Xi can serve another term by 2027, but any time after 2032 he will be trully too old to handle things. This is why I propose best initiating conflict between 2025 to 2032. Although not a hard requirement any time after 2032 we might have to wait longer for the new guy to settle in first.
 
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Biscuits

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think it unlikely that China will go on military offensive. Especially not under Xi Jinping, who has presided mostly over an era of dialogue and friendly rapprochement even in the face of increased Western aggression.

China has the 2nd lowest military budget in Asia, with only Japan being lower.

End of civil war, unless US attacks and forces China to storm the ROC positions first, I think Beijing will only at most blockade the separatist areas, turning them into something like the West Bank in Gaza. But they will still want to solve it through negotiation and dialogue.

Though I also expect at some point, Beijing will harvest in TSMC, either through overt nationalization or laws on semiconductor export.

2022 is a big year. Here, China surpassed Europe in GDP per capita, and surpassed America in life expectancy.

In 2025, we will likely see America isolating itself more. Rather than the current day parity, Chinese comapnies will likely have a burgeoning technological edge overall. After having surpassed most of East Europe, China may start surpassing central Europe in GDP per capita.

If the 1.3 billion of China have a better life and are able to use resources better than the 1.5 billion or so of the west, there will naturally be many many advantages in every sector across the board, including military.

Stuff like semiconductors and EVs, China has signalled that the govt will not carry private companies by squashing competition and giving them free meals. Instead, private companies will innovate themselves. This was the model in the past that let China corner every other market it applied to. So I have no doubts the same will happen here.

Instead, the job of the CPC should be to spread ideology. Seeing the fact that communism can create equal or better conditions than the west, there will be many chances globally to support left leaning movements. The problem with China's allies is that they are, bluntly speaking, just as incapable of advancement as the west and their third world dictator allies. That would not be the case if they were under socialist rule.

China needs a "dream team" of mutually reinforcing communist societies, operating on the people first, no privileges for the elites principle. Ideal candidates for molding already exist, in the form of NK and Russia, the former requiring some finessing to make them open up, and the latter having a strong nostalgia for the USSR.
 

yungho

New Member
Registered Member
I think it unlikely that China will go on military offensive. Especially not under Xi Jinping, who has presided mostly over an era of dialogue and friendly rapprochement even in the face of increased Western aggression.

China has the 2nd lowest military budget in Asia, with only Japan being lower.

End of civil war, unless US attacks and forces China to storm the ROC positions first, I think Beijing will only at most blockade the separatist areas, turning them into something like the West Bank in Gaza. But they will still want to solve it through negotiation and dialogue.

Though I also expect at some point, Beijing will harvest in TSMC, either through overt nationalization or laws on semiconductor export.

2022 is a big year. Here, China surpassed Europe in GDP per capita, and surpassed America in life expectancy.

In 2025, we will likely see America isolating itself more. Rather than the current day parity, Chinese comapnies will likely have a burgeoning technological edge overall. After having surpassed most of East Europe, China may start surpassing central Europe in GDP per capita.

If the 1.3 billion of China have a better life and are able to use resources better than the 1.5 billion or so of the west, there will naturally be many many advantages in every sector across the board, including military.

Stuff like semiconductors and EVs, China has signalled that the govt will not carry private companies by squashing competition and giving them free meals. Instead, private companies will innovate themselves. This was the model in the past that let China corner every other market it applied to. So I have no doubts the same will happen here.

Instead, the job of the CPC should be to spread ideology. Seeing the fact that communism can create equal or better conditions than the west, there will be many chances globally to support left leaning movements. The problem with China's allies is that they are, bluntly speaking, just as incapable of advancement as the west and their third world dictator allies. That would not be the case if they were under socialist rule.

China needs a "dream team" of mutually reinforcing communist societies, operating on the people first, no privileges for the elites principle. Ideal candidates for molding already exist, in the form of NK and Russia, the former requiring some finessing to make them open up, and the latter having a strong nostalgia for the USSR.
I agree with the former idea of Xi not looking for conflict and fostering competition. Ideology imo is the weak point of the communists and they may need to reinvent themselves, especially after Xi.
 

TK3600

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think it unlikely that China will go on military offensive. Especially not under Xi Jinping, who has presided mostly over an era of dialogue and friendly rapprochement even in the face of increased Western aggression.

China has the 2nd lowest military budget in Asia, with only Japan being lower.

End of civil war, unless US attacks and forces China to storm the ROC positions first, I think Beijing will only at most blockade the separatist areas, turning them into something like the West Bank in Gaza. But they will still want to solve it through negotiation and dialogue.

Though I also expect at some point, Beijing will harvest in TSMC, either through overt nationalization or laws on semiconductor export.

2022 is a big year. Here, China surpassed Europe in GDP per capita, and surpassed America in life expectancy.

In 2025, we will likely see America isolating itself more. Rather than the current day parity, Chinese comapnies will likely have a burgeoning technological edge overall. After having surpassed most of East Europe, China may start surpassing central Europe in GDP per capita.

If the 1.3 billion of China have a better life and are able to use resources better than the 1.5 billion or so of the west, there will naturally be many many advantages in every sector across the board, including military.

Stuff like semiconductors and EVs, China has signalled that the govt will not carry private companies by squashing competition and giving them free meals. Instead, private companies will innovate themselves. This was the model in the past that let China corner every other market it applied to. So I have no doubts the same will happen here.

Instead, the job of the CPC should be to spread ideology. Seeing the fact that communism can create equal or better conditions than the west, there will be many chances globally to support left leaning movements. The problem with China's allies is that they are, bluntly speaking, just as incapable of advancement as the west and their third world dictator allies. That would not be the case if they were under socialist rule.

China needs a "dream team" of mutually reinforcing communist societies, operating on the people first, no privileges for the elites principle. Ideal candidates for molding already exist, in the form of NK and Russia, the former requiring some finessing to make them open up, and the latter having a strong nostalgia for the USSR.
Spreading ideology is a dangerous idea. It will threaten elite's rule on their country, and they really don't like that. It will be hard for China to win over allies without regime change.
 

FIDEL de Chacal

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Due to a series of event by 2025 China will be in a unique position to plan for military. For the past decades China had been on the reactive side on defense. This is due to either econmic opportunity cost and lacking in certain military areas. While China could win a conflict it was never a good choice. Starting from 2025 these factors will change. China would be able to plan on offense on issues such as Taiwan, and be much less restrained. This thread is to discuss how can China go on offense and succeed with minimal opportunity cost.
I would agree that the decades prior to and leading up to the 2010s the PRC's stance had been more defensive or reactive in nature. But that ship has sailed and in the 2010s the tide had changed dramatically in the PRC's favor. The 2010s were a key decade and I would say now(in 2022) that they(the PRC) are the ones in the drivers seat and it's everyone else now that's scrambling and reacting to their moves. I'm in agreement that this decade and beyond(current trajectory) the PRC will realistically now have far better chance of conducting offensive operations with a high degree of success.

Stuff problematic today remain problematic in 2025:

1. Civil aviation still reliant on EU or USA. Local alternative available but lacks scaling up. It is possible to stock up spare parts, but those money still go in US MIC like Boeing.

When you say "Civil Aviation" , assuming you are strictly talking about the commercial aspects of the PRC's aviation industry , where as I see(view) the civil and military aspects as being one industry as a whole. Just like I view the PRC's Space and Shipping Industries. I do not separate the two.

In any case I don't see the PRC's "civil aviation" industry being a problematic issue now or in the future that it would hinder the PRC to wage a "special island operation" within its borders in any way. I'm Not saying the PRC's "Civil Aviation" industry isn't important and the PRC should pursue ways to continue to improve(advance) and sure it may still lack in certain areas. But in reality the PRC's Aviation Industry commercial(civil) or military is very capable now to meet future needs vs what most outsiders would like to perceive it as being or give credit.

Also the same can be said about the EU and US being reliant on the PRC for commercial ship building so it's not all one sided street. Money is going both ways. The PRC has leverage , it's market is too big to just ignore and cut off and so the PRC can play that against each other.

Speaking of Space , What about Space ( "the final frontier" ) , No mention of Space??? Space is waaay too important to be left out and the PRC needs to keep pace with robust systems in numbers. The PRC Space Industry ( civil/military ) and it's key related technologies are way more important than the "civil aviation" sector will ever be going forward.

The PRC is already a strong "Space Power" but it needs to be a "Space Super Power" not just military but commercially going forward as both go hand in hand. Space is a battle field now and it should not be over looked or taken for granted.

To use ("space systems") that can contest/counter/disrupt ("by numbers") or to deny ("attack") space is key to victory against an adversary like the US and it's alliance when the PRC should undertake a "special island operation".

2. USD while greatly diminished in use as reserve currency will still remain king for the decade. USA can finance the war with money printing without full consequences. If USA must pick between non-intervention or an unavoidable financial crisis they will be much less enthusiastic to compete.

There's ways the PRC could better insulate itself from the USD. Invest(buy) in more gold , silver and other valuable metals. Stock up on their other reserves. Invest in other foreign currencies € or £ while its weak. Invest in multiple alternative digital currencies. Setup multiple alternative international payment systems.

Taking into account that this won't happen over night and that this is easier said then done but the PRC have shown that they're highly capable of managing it. So I don't see this being a problematic issue for the PRC to the degree it would hinder their ability to wage a "special island operation".

Also It's a catch 22 for the US when comes to the USD. The PRC holds a very very large % of US debt still. The PRC is one of top trading partners of the US now and will remain so well into this decade and well after. So despite the current trade war and rhetotic the US will not be able to use the USD to great effect against the PRC or impose the type of financial sanctions the way it has against other powers without inflicting cost onto itself. Their economies are too big and too connected at this stage.

Would the US really saw off it's left foot with a dull blade then use a spoon to remove it's right eyes to spite the PRC?

The simple answer is Yes but that's why the PRC needs to be absolutely overwhelming in their resolve should push come to shove. As a certain current event continues to play out one would have to assume the PRC are competent enough to include this in its calculations on the onset of a "special island operation" or I would assume... LoL

3. US diplomatic influence remain strong. EU is still a steadfast ally despite Ukraine fiasco. Japan still is a staunch ally. South Korea can be scared to neutral easier but we cannot count on it. If those alliance can be neutralized it will greatly disrupt US effort to sustain prolonged conflict in the region.

3. EU is China's biggest trade partner. Although it will be difficult to sway them it is worth a try. One way is to weaken EU by making use of internal member conflict. Make sure EU is too weak to order everyone around and have willing members negotiate with China alone. Sea trade will be difficult, those are best done via land rail. Some states will be too entrenched in American interest to sway. That is a reality China must accept and work around. Japan can be partially neutralized by targeting civil auto industry using EV competition. It will affect their economy to rearm and willingness to aid US. However US influence is too strong to rely on Japan to stay out of China's way. South Korea is easier to neutralize, but it still has a powerful military to be reckon with. China should prepare for the worst even if they are eaiser to sway.​

On the Diplomatic/Economic Side , No question the US is a "Super Power" and has a super alliance of diplomatic allies with very strong economies/militaries , but the fact now is that the PRC is also a "Super Power". The PRC is also a major trading partner among pretty much all of the US major allies. So the same thing applies to them. It's a two way street. The US allies limited and do not have the leverage to impose the type of economic sanctions to hinder the PRC ability to wage a "special island operation" without cost onto themselves.

Also how does that work , if your number one "adversary/enemy" is also your number one trading partner??? LoL

On the Military Side , the US is "Military Super Power" that is highly capable and currently leads a alliance of powerful militaries. So The US and Company Should Not Be Under Estimated By No Means...but but

But that said it's a alliance built solely around the US , meaning unless US(itself) is "committed to shed its own blood and treasure" , thinks it can prevail(win) and feels(thinks) it's adversary is at a disadvantage(weak).

This powerful alliance is meaningless if faced against a PRC that's is on equal(neer) terms and is absolute in it's own resolve and conviction. I don't care how many countries the US can sucker into their coalition of the mindless. As long as PRC can inflict heavy cost onto the US in return. The US will do nothing. "Fait Accompli".

The US and "West" understand only one language that is "Brute Force" from a barrel of a gun.

The "World" (cough , the "West" and their familiars) has , suffers from short term memory and live in the moment. A good friend once asked me , Do You Remember Afghanistan? Yeah I'm Still Trying To Forget It...LoL , How did it work out for the Taliban when faced against the US lead coalition that lasted 20 years. Bet yet the "West and it's familiars" will their moral standards and great wisdom thinks some how they can "deter" a now powerful PLA in their own front yard and have the tools to prevail in a "short conflict" against the PLA over an island they all recognize as being apart of the PRC?.. (yeah ask my Russian comrades how a short conflict turned out for them)

It's not 1992 , it's not 2002 , it's not 2012 , it's 2022...those ships have sailed into history. The PRC is a two headed monster(economically/militarily) and have the means to do things , PLA is only going to get stronger going foward.

Blah , Blah , Blah...Yeaaah The PLA is just a tiger on paper , the type 055 is made out of wood , the WZ-7 is a RC plane that was brought from a hobby shop , the J-20 is a copy of a copy of a copy held together with super glue , the DF-41 is just a 70 foot 200,000 pound firecracker and the PLA hasn't fought a conflict/war in decades their soldiers are glass they will break and shatter in combat. Yeah talk about Russia , But the US and company couldn't handle(beat) a bunch of dudes that lived in caves , who used AKs/RPGs on horse back and carried satellite phones. Guess some folks are in for a rude awakening...​

I'll say it again The US only understand one language that is "Absolute Brute Force".
So how does the PRC defeat the US at their own game , COBRA KAI "No Mercy"...
 

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
Spreading ideology is a dangerous idea. It will threaten elite's rule on their country, and they really don't like that. It will be hard for China to win over allies without regime change.
You have a great resource for that in alibaba and 3d print groups. You literally can supply civilian legal arms parts globally to anyone. Then they print components . Shot i have seen people in countries where body armor is a felony get carriers and plates via militech on ali regularly. china actually should have an advantage in foreign ops to due to the huge chinese diaspora who went over seas for education etc. You have many more folks knowledgable about specific countries cultures beliefs values etc.

Soft power cultural exports are important to. Games movies videos targeted at ages 8-25 year olds will have the greatest impact as folks are really gaining a sense of self and their values at that time frame. Such important targets should not be ignored. Chinese games tv shows etc are spreading in popularity. If you can find ways to make china appealing to western youths you can essentially kill the redit shitlib anti china crowd or the serpentzas .
 
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Moonscape

New Member
Registered Member
The last point of discussion is whether China should seize earlier opportunity or wait longer in 2030's and initiate offense whenever. It has its advantage and disadvantage. China will be better prepared and safer, but risk internal uncertainties. For example will Xi still be with us? Will his succesor be ready to take on major international issue before settling down domestically? Right now Xi wields unparalleled level of power and with that comes stability. I think major international issues such as initiating a war is best done in his tenure. Xi can serve another term by 2027, but any time after 2032 he will be trully too old to handle things. This is why I propose best initiating conflict between 2025 to 2032. Although not a hard requirement any time after 2032 we might have to wait longer for the new guy to settle in first.

The current status quo across the Taiwan Strait is acceptable to the Mainland. It's not acceptable to the DPP. From the Mainland's point of view, there's no reason to initiate hostilities as long as the situation is still stable. Hostilities will happen only if/when the DPP significantly alters the status quo, such as declaring independence, scheduling a referendum on independence, or allowing the US to once again station troops on Taiwan.
 

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