The War in the Ukraine

[Zichan]

Apparently recent footage of the damage inflicted upon the Antonovksy bridge near Kherson. Although I am not able to confirm that's indeed the case: a lot of the footage looks identical to reports from back in August.

Very good placement of HIMARS impacts, however no visible damage to the pillars. At some point the roadway will not be able to support heavy vehicle traffic, no matter the amount of patchwork. It takes an awful lot of HIMARS rounds to do what a couple 2,000lb bombs would achieve in one strike. But Ukraine doesn't have better options at the moment.

Source:

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[FairAndUnbiased]

According to the ASB Military News Telegram channel Russia is testing a Tu-214R reconnaissance aircraft over Ukraine:

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They needed to deploy this on like day -1 lol, but better now than never. Utterly baffling why Russians waited until now to deploy existing strategic ISR platforms that can help from well within the borders of Russia.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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Good article demonstrating how Ukraine is suffering unthinkable casualties for little to no gains. Despite all these claims that Russia is going to get pushed out (hint: Not happening anytime soon)

"They are racing to recapture territory before the October rains turn the roads here into impassable sludge." So much so for getting to Kherson, huh?

"The Ukrainian government does not usually disclose casualty figures, but the soldiers and commanders interviewed in the past week portrayed the battlefield losses as “high” and “massive.” They described large offensives in which columns of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles tried to cross open fields only to be pounded mercilessly by Russian artillery and blown up by Russian mines."

"One Ukrainian soldier, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to publicly discuss casualties, said that during a recent assault, “we lost 50 guys in two hours.” In another place, said the soldier, who works closely with different frontline units, “hundreds” of Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded while trying to take a single village, which is still in Russian hands."

'“The problem is that we are advancing with no artillery preparation, without suppressing their firing positions,”' said Ihor Kozub, the commander of a volunteer military unit near the southern city of Mykolaiv."

This is expected. Kherson's geography is a massive hinderance to the side with air and artillery inferiority: flat fields with many river crossings. Russian forces are also locally stronger due to proximity with Crimea while the only city that can support a Kherson offensive is Mykolaiv.

 

[sheogorath]

This is expected. Kherson's geography is a massive hinderance to the side with air and artillery inferiority: flat fields with many river crossings. Russian forces are also locally stronger due to proximity with Crimea while the only city that can support a Kherson offensive is Mykolaiv.

The images from Kherson are less flattering than those from Kharkov, including a T-90M towing a captured T-72M

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[Atomicfrog]

The images from Kherson are less flattering than those from Kharkov, including a T-90M towing a captured T-72M

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Common weapons from both sides make field refurbishment easier. Would be interesting to see the amount of Frankentanks with turret , engine and tracks fitted from different tanks types and countries. Mixed up T-72 variants, T-90 with T-72 components, etc...

Even the TOS-1 that Ukraine don't have any ammo to replenish the launcher can be used for spare parts for T-72 chassis.

 

[Abominable]

Apparently recent footage of the damage inflicted upon the Antonovksy bridge near Kherson. Although I am not able to confirm that's indeed the case: a lot of the footage looks identical to reports from back in August.

Very good placement of HIMARS impacts, however no visible damage to the pillars. At some point the roadway will not be able to support heavy vehicle traffic, no matter the amount of patchwork. It takes an awful lot of HIMARS rounds to do what a couple 2,000lb bombs would achieve in one strike. But Ukraine doesn't have better options at the moment.

Source:

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I find it hilarious that the endless amount of propaganda from the "Ukraine is winning" crowd, they've been unable to take out a single bridge a few miles from the front line while trying to do so for the whole summer.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Apparently recent footage of the damage inflicted upon the Antonovksy bridge near Kherson. Although I am not able to confirm that's indeed the case: a lot of the footage looks identical to reports from back in August.

Very good placement of HIMARS impacts, however no visible damage to the pillars. At some point the roadway will not be able to support heavy vehicle traffic, no matter the amount of patchwork. It takes an awful lot of HIMARS rounds to do what a couple 2,000lb bombs would achieve in one strike. But Ukraine doesn't have better options at the moment.


Source:

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The bridge beams on that part doesn't has much load, this kind of attack effective only if they targe the exact middle of the beam between two column.

Only target the column make sense at that point, means they missthe target badly.

 

[supersnoop]

[

Russia was firing 20,000 artillery shells per day in July, according to a report from Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Their monthly production capacity would sustain only 5 days of operations.

The world 155mm shell market was worth $3.37 billion in 2021. At an average price of $2,000 per shell, that amounts to about 1.685 million shells annually. According to RUSI Ukraine was firing 6,000 artillery shells a day, which amounts to 2.2 million annually. Given existing stockpiles sizes, and a modest rampup in manufacturing, NATO should not have any difficulty sustaining at least that baseline consumption practically indefinitely.

Who is going to pay the bills?
Just look at what happened after the 1856 Crimean War

 

[Zichan]

I find it hilarious that the endless amount of propaganda from the "Ukraine is winning" crowd, they've been unable to take out a single bridge a few miles from the front line while trying to do so for the whole summer.

I think this should not be surprising. HIMARS warhead is pretty small: just 200 lbs.

In the Vietnam War, it took the US 7 years of bombing to finally destroy the Thanh Hóa Bridge. They hit it with upwards of hundreds of bombs, but bridges are tough targets and it remained operational after quick repairs.

It was only once they introduced 2,000 lbs laser guided bombs able to bit the supporting pillars that they finally collapsed the bridge.

 

[taxiya]

The world 155mm shell market was worth $3.37 billion in 2021. At an average price of $2,000 per shell, that amounts to about 1.685 million shells annually. According to RUSI Ukraine was firing 6,000 artillery shells a day, which amounts to 2.2 million annually. Given existing stockpiles sizes, and a modest rampup in manufacturing, NATO should not have any difficulty sustaining at least that baseline consumption practically indefinitely.

You are assuming that those $3.37 billion 155mm shells are made and bought by NATO and its allies.

I believe that your source is this one.

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The article says that out of the 3.37 BUSD, 1.35BUSD is in Asia-pacific (excluding US). The big player includes NORINCO. There is also the middle-east being the second largest market, some of them bought from China. Neither China, India, nor ME countries are going to transfer their shares of ammunition to Ukraine. Considering NATO is depleting their stockpile, what Ukraine can get is much less.