Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[horse]

You imply somehow Chinese final warnings are linked to the outcomes. Please do elaborate.

My point is some people actually think one-China policy is more than just a peace of paper at this point.

If you see my responses above, not single one suggests rushing into war.

This is a classic strategy similar to how Russia was forced into Ukraine. They will eventually bring it to the point where China will need to choose to 'act' then and there. China is not 100% in control of the timeline as some assume. Taiwan can be coerced into declaration of Independence with US boots on the ground simultaneously backed by several Carrier battle groups and what not East of Taiwan. At that point, US will pull enough countries to recognize the declaration that it has some credence. You can refer to the Ukraine playbook.

You are all assuming China is the only smart player and US is dumb and that China will make the first move and somehow catch US off-guard in it's reunification war. That's not necessarily the case.


We can all quote ancient history, it's good to take lessons from it but one must not be so blinded that you assume the same variables apply today, no they don't.

Your whole post is just copium.

After Pelosi's visit, China clearly turned the situation into its favour.

China unilaterally changed the status quo, without any meaningful push back.

Here you are saying that the future will see how America will stare China down over this.

The future?

What about now!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Nothing but empty rhetoric.

 

[phrozenflame]

Your whole post is just copium.

After Pelosi's visit, China clearly turned the situation into its favour.

China unilaterally changed the status quo, without any meaningful push back.

Here you are saying that the future will see how America will stare China down over this.

The future?

What about now!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Nothing but empty rhetoric.

Why would I need copium? You're just trying to deflect the discussion by ad hominems and irrelevant examples. The President of United States as clearly stated what they will do, the strategic ambiguity is no more. This is not the same as Pelosi, that the administration really didn't want but had to go along with for sale of optics.

The scenario I present is far different from Pelosi and not comparable at all.

 

[supersnoop]

Why would I need copium? You're just trying to deflect the discussion by ad hominems and irrelevant examples. The President of United States as clearly stated what they will do, the strategic ambiguity is no more. This is not the same as Pelosi, that the administration really didn't want but had to go along with for sale of optics.

The scenario I present is far different from Pelosi and not comparable at all.

You say the timeline is not in China’s hands. This is true in an absolute sense, but not in a way that reflects reality.

Biden says he will spill blood for Taiwan independence? So what are they waiting for? Tell us why they haven’t done it already?

Why worry about color Revolution? How many times has US tried this already? Tibet, Xinjiang, Tiananmen, Hong Kong. They have lost every. single. time. HK was the most f-ing embarrassing outcome for any colour revolution. They are still talking about “crushing dissent”, but it’s so meaningless, not even one person dead. The only ones who got crushed were the CIA.

 

[Barefoot]

We can all agree that competing forces are coming to a head, right?


Anyway, does anyone know the whereabouts of the UK's remaining aircraft carrier, has it sunk while trying to cross the Atlantic, perhaps? I'm guessing it will try to make it all the way to the South China Sea area early next year, in symbolic support of a US battle group.

 

[alfreddango]

We can all agree that competing forces are coming to a head, right?


Anyway, does anyone know the whereabouts of the UK's remaining aircraft carrier, has it sunk while trying to cross the Atlantic, perhaps? I'm guessing it will try to make it all the way to the South China Sea area early next year, in symbolic support of a US battle group.

qe2? near iceland if marinetraffic is to be believed

 

[Jj888]

Why would I need copium? You're just trying to deflect the discussion by ad hominems and irrelevant examples. The President of United States as clearly stated what they will do, the strategic ambiguity is no more. This is not the same as Pelosi, that the administration really didn't want but had to go along with for sale of optics.

The scenario I present is far different from Pelosi and not comparable at all.

Really?

get sob, sleepy old biden to void the one china policy

there won’t be any Christmas presents coming from China. Promise not to cry ok

 

[Petrolicious88]

Is the implication here that China should all just give up on Taiwan then? After all, Taiwan is independent country but lacks recognition from just all about every country that exists in the U.N. except for 13 countries.

Fanboys a few months ago were all arguing US won’t sacrifice blood to come to Taiwan’s defense. Now, they are saying Taiwan will easily surrender if China just enforces a blockade and bomb Taiwan into submission. It’s as if it will be that easy.

The One China policy has been diluted. Taiwan is by most definitions already independent. China may not attack Taiwan even if it formally declares independence because it can achieve its goal of achieving regional dominance without Taiwan. A Taiwan war is not worth it.

 

[sheogorath]

US and allied military strength will not disintegrate in the next 5-10 years.

Doesn't mean they have enough strength is the required areas for a Pacific conflict, either. They have plenty of strength...in COIN and bombing helpless peasants.

 

[phrozenflame]

Really?

get sob, sleepy old biden to void the one china policy

there won’t be any Christmas presents coming from China. Promise not to cry ok

It's already done. SOB or not, he's mentioned it repeatedly now.

Don't think he is expecting any presents either. Why would he do so?

Lots of fanboi vibes.

 

[phrozenflame]

You say the timeline is not in China’s hands. This is true in an absolute sense, but not in a way that reflects reality.

Biden says he will spill blood for Taiwan independence? So what are they waiting for? Tell us why they haven’t done it already?

They are waiting for declaration of independence that will come at the time of their choosing, when all the pieces on the chessboard and checkers are all set. So, they very much control the trigger. Why not already? Because they're all busy re-orienting towards China. Putin probably threw a wrench in that plan by year or three.

SImilarly, applying your logic, one can ask why hasn't China unified Taiwan? What are they waiting for then?