Fun fact: Taiwan blue force has never lost against the red force during the Hanguang exercises, NEVER.
Now which side looks like the authoritarian military that puts on a show and dance in lieu of actual practice?
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Fun fact: Taiwan blue force has never lost against the red force during the Hanguang exercises, NEVER.
Now which side looks like the authoritarian military that puts on a show and dance in lieu of actual practice?
Is the implication here that China should all just give up on Taiwan then? After all, Taiwan is independent country but lacks recognition from just all about every country that exists in the U.N. except for 13 countries.
One-China policy is no more defacto, only dejure.
Some people here are still in denial because on paper some 10 little countries only recognize Taiwan, while in actual one China policy has been completely hollowed out.
The frog is in the water and the water is heating up, frog is being told exactly what's happening, but frog will issue final warnings.
China will need to do more than issue statements.
I think:
1. They've seen the playbook being used against Russia. Prepare counters now.
2. Resolve all outstanding disputes at southern border and SCS. I think other than Japan, other nations would rather resolve and stay out of a a shooting war between US and China over Taiwan.
3. Increase Nukes.
4. Be prepared to counter 'color revolutions' in the neighborhood or prepare their own. Look at Sri Lanka as a failed example of BRT. You keep the hen for eggs, not kill it for the meat. Learn the lessons there.
5. Lots of moves in Central Asia going on, between Turkey, Russia, Iran and US. It would be sad if suddenly a hostile neighbor appears on the western border too.
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Has it changed China's planning though? I think it's beyond doubt China have always planned for the worst case scenario, it's the smartest and logical thing to do. In this case, it's US intervening along with most likely Japan. China not dumb enough to take it for granted US military would not be involved. Life goes on.
The country that made that meme no longer exists, thanks partly to Afghan mujahideen loaded up with Chinese weapons.
People didn't believe China's final warning in 1949, 1962 or 1979, look what happened? This time around we haven't yet seen that "勿谓言之不预也" being issued by 钟声 yet, so plenty of time left in in this game before checkmate. China doesn't rush blindly into a war without planning it out carefully, as much as that might be emotionally satisfying.
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Recognition is the only mattering factor. All those things also LDPR, Kosovo and even ISIS have. Doesn't mean they're anything more than meme entities that would collapse in a nanosecond if not for the control of an outside nation seeking to use them for a land grab. In this case, America.
No recognition means no matter how much song and dance US does, it can be wiped out unilaterally from China's side and the only thing US can do to protest is an invasion breaking the UN charter (not that they care too much, but they don't have the capability to invade).
Beijing can for example decide that shipping will now temporarily not go to Taiwan until further notice. They can nationalize near all of Taiwan's wealth. Declare a no fly zone over the straits.
China doesn't really spend any "political capital" at all. Its status as the largest economy in the world, longstanding relationships with both East and West countries for better or worse and UNSC permanent membership means that for 99% of countries that aren't complete basket cases where lone dictators can be bribed by rebel laundered money, theyre automatically pulled into recognizing Beijing.
Not having sovereignty is like a person being lawless in medieval times.
You imply somehow Chinese final warnings are linked to the outcomes. Please do elaborate.
My point is some people actually think one-China policy is more than just a peace of paper at this point.
If you see my responses above, not single one suggests rushing into war.
This is a classic strategy similar to how Russia was forced into Ukraine. They will eventually bring it to the point where China will need to choose to 'act' then and there. China is not 100% in control of the timeline as some assume. Taiwan can be coerced into declaration of Independence with US boots on the ground simultaneously backed by several Carrier battle groups and what not East of Taiwan. At that point, US will pull enough countries to recognize the declaration that it has some credence. You can refer to the Ukraine playbook.
You are all assuming China is the only smart player and US is dumb and that China will make the first move and somehow catch US off-guard in it's reunification war. That's not necessarily the case.
We can all quote ancient history, it's good to take lessons from it but one must not be so blinded that you assume the same variables apply today, no they don't.
Golden hour for US to do Crimea style takeover already long passed. Should have done it in year 2000 or even 2014.
Back then, probably lacking political will and fear of nuclear response. But in year 2000 there was not too much China could do if it happened aside from nukes.
Current China "just" needs to grow the PLA faster than US can grow the US army. Since they have access to overall more resources, this is a race that favors China over the long run, unless China decides to take a nap.
Assuming China can stave off the influence of borderline fifth columnist US doves from the National Congress, they're in a generally fine position. If they can't, then all bets are off.
But the silver lining about years of demilitarization is that the PLA has nowhere to go but up. Even the most US hugging politicians will find it hard to reduce spending even lower than it is currently.
Short term goal should be, adopt NATO level spending (2%) to defend Asia. Then adopt US level spending (4%) to defend against US interventions globally.
Of course China is in control of timeline. I understand why people feel agitated - they see reunification is on the horizon. It's just like lining up at a bank branch to open an account: when you take that ticket and you see 50 people in front of you in the queue you'll all relaxed and playing with your phone. But when there's only 2 people left in front of you you're looking at them non-stop thinking "why is that guy taking so long, how hard can it be?"
Let's say tomorrow, to alleviate your fear someone on the CMC show you the plan for reunification in 2027, including plans on how to create a casus belli if one wasn't conveniently available, would you then still worry about what the US or DPP does between now and 2027?
But you might say, I doubt CPC have what it take to plan this sort of thing and handle it well. Then I ask: in this most recent 4th Taiwan Strait Crisis, particularly the period around Pelosi's visit how would you describe CPC's handling?
Personally I think it was fairly well handled, that's why I'm not worried about reunification.
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