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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Expect they'll be turned into madrassas.
I have a few problems with this
1- Most formal practices that underpin the international system are disintegrating. The UN charter has been largely impotent against great powers but at no point the US was actively trying to undermine the UN and other institutions. And at no point so many countries were violating it so frequently. Taiwan's current status was a victory for China. Taiwan was almost completely isolated politically for decades. But it is changing. What's the importance of formal recognition and UN membership if you are treated as a real state by your supporters? Nothing. One China is rapidly deteriorating to a point that it is just lip service. It is becoming something Americans use to "play China" as it was in liberal fantasies. For example, the new Taipei act is basically a recognition of Taiwan. It just leaves the formal declaration part. It is the political analog of the special military operation of Russia. There is no declaration but no person would argue that Russia is not at war with Ukraine.
2- What about 4% spending in Taiwan? That is usually what countries that feel threatened spend. What about Taiwan actually starting to treat its military as a military rather than a jobs program? What about long conscription and focus on urban warfare? A country with the economic size of Taiwan can easily make itself a porcupine. Taiwan's economic size doubles Israel.
3- Taiwan can fight for months. Especially if they prepare themselves for it. Food, fuel, and infantry equipment are not expensive at all and can be stored in huge volumes with some effort. Today, you are right. But a Ukrainized Taiwan can easily fight for a year. Just the battle of Taipei can last months.
4- On a totalistic basis China will continue catching up to the USA quite fast. That's a certainty. But in terms of what can be projected to the West Pacific the situation will improve significantly slower. The current US military is actually not well suited for the challenge. It has a lot of worn out equipment and its unit structures and equipment stocks are largely tailored for middle eastern adventures. By 2035 we will have a much more focused US military and a significantly higher proportion of it will be in West Pacific. Coupled with Japanese and Taiwanese military growth, this is very significant. To sum up, China benefits from waiting but the picture in 2035 won't be much better than it is today. Most pro-China people look at how the current picture and extrapolate that China would curb stomp the USA in West Pacific in a conflict in 2035. But that won't be the case. That's only possible if the USA invades Iran and has another Vietnam there.
Months? Probably. Year? That’s just stretching it way too much. Taiwan imports a significant amount of food and fuel to keep themselves running. Unless Taiwan has a 50,000 mile underground fortress then they are going to run out of supplies fast after the PLA strikes more and more depots and stockpiles.
You can store food just about anywhere but logistically small stockpiles won’t work with 23 million people. Fuel must be stored in certain containers and small containers won’t last long enough before it needs resupply after a battalion of armored vehicles drains it in a day. The only thing left are large depots and warehouses which will be targeted.
The problem with comparing it with Ukraine is that it’s not an Island. They grow and can import food, fuel, and war materials without any interferences from Russia on a daily basis. Then there is also a gas pipeline that Russia is still sending through Ukraine and their own natural gas fields. Taiwan does not have the same luxuries that Ukraine is able to enjoy.
Power sub/stations, water treatment, telecom are all legitimate targets. Life will become very shitty, very quickly. Taiwan is simply too reliant on imports at a strategic level.
A lot of good points here. It takes time for the US military to reorient towards peer-peer war fighting after 20 years of war on terror. By 2030, PLA will be stronger but so will the US. The war over Taiwan will not be easy now or in the future. Taiwanese will not surrender easily, esp since future generation has no ties to China. Expect lots of urban warfare, tunnel warfare. In the end, it may not even be worth it.
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Deino, Ficker22, if you guys are running low, we may need to arrange a SDF rescue package to be flown in...
The crisis on the European gas market could lead to reduced production of toilet paper in Germany, according to Martin Krengel, chairman of the nation’s paper industry association, Die Papierindustrie.
“We are particularly dependent on gas for the production of tissue paper. Without it, we will no longer be able to provide security of supply,” Krengel said in a statement published on Thursday.
According to data provided by Die Papierindustrie, each German citizen uses an average of 134 rolls of toilet paper per year. “In the current energy crisis, our top priority is to provide people with this important commodity,” Krengel stressed.
Last month, the Bavarian Paper Association warned that operating paper plants may become unprofitable if they are forced to work at reduced capacity due to natural gas shortages.
Germany and the EU as a whole have recently seen a significant reduction in natural gas supplies from Russia, leading to numerous warnings of possible industrial shutdowns.
Germans warned of toilet paper shortage
The energy crisis could severely affect production, an industry body warns
The crisis on the European gas market could lead to reduced production of toilet paper in Germany, according to Martin Krengel, chairman of the nation’s paper industry association, Die Papierindustrie.
“We are particularly dependent on gas for the production of tissue paper. Without it, we will no longer be able to provide security of supply,” Krengel said in a statement published on Thursday.
According to data provided by Die Papierindustrie, each German citizen uses an average of 134 rolls of toilet paper per year. “In the current energy crisis, our top priority is to provide people with this important commodity,” Krengel stressed.
Last month, the Bavarian Paper Association warned that operating paper plants may become unprofitable if they are forced to work at reduced capacity due to natural gas shortages.
Germany and the EU as a whole have recently seen a significant reduction in natural gas supplies from Russia, leading to numerous warnings of possible industrial shutdowns.
What are you talking about? It will definitely be worth it. Urban warfare? Tunnel warfare? Even then china will still have a massive advantage and overwhelming power. It will always be worth it.