The War in the Ukraine

[tankphobia]

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Basically Ukraine has about three month supply of HIMARS missiles left. And the US has already emptied a third of their own HIMARs systems. The US has sent 16 and Ukraine has lost 8 of them to Russian bombardment. There has been reports that the flow of arms to Ukraine has slowed down since June.

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Looks like no Kherson offensive is not happening. Same complaint we hear from Ukrainian soldiers over and over again. Lack of basic artillery and armored vehicles. They moved all their heavy artillery from Donbass to Kherson. Now that back fired as Peski has fallen. Maryinka is near collapse and Aveedka is being attacked on the north and south. I think they will try an offensive when the referendum happens to try disrupt it but it will fail.

Is there a source to 8 HIMARS destroyed? There hasn't been any serious reports of destroyed HIMARS, unless you count that one blurry video a week+ ago as a destroyed HIMARS, they should be far out of UAV range at the moment so it would be very difficult to provide any video evidence and I'm not prepared to take word of Russia MOD at face value, otherwise the entire Ukrainian military would've been destroyed a few times over already.

 

[FADH1791]

aren't they supposed to have like thousands or hundreds of Himars missiles ? If they running out yet Russian offensives in Donbass continues and no sign of Russian Goodwill to retreat from Kherson. Where were those stocks going ? Are Russian CRAM & precision strike effort works better than what twitterland shows ? Or Ukrainian just havent fired as many.

Hundreds. The US has thousands of those missiles but they aren’t going to deplete their stocks for a losing war. Production of Himars takes years. The few hundred the Ukrainians got they used some of them with some tactical success however many were destroyed by the Russians in missile and aerial strikes. The problem with HIMARS is the same with the M777 artillery guns. They only work when the user has total aerial superiority. Not when the enemy can bomb them at anytime. The point is western militaries built their arsenals up for quick wars in the Mideast. Not large scale conventional warfare that may last years.

 

[Abominable]

What has me thinking is almost primitive artillery usage by both sides

1- Limited smoke round usage
2- Limited cluster round usage (remember neither side is a party to cluster munition ban)
3- Limited use of guided rounds
4- No MRSI
5- Little to no close support and counterbattery. Artillery is mostly used at bombing fixed locations and at short ranges. Exceptions exist but this is the usual affair.
6- Towed howitzers survive as good as SPGs. This is caused by the previous point.
7- Lack of PROX fuses in most rounds! People easily survive in crowded and simple trenches.
8- Little to no mechanization in munitions handling.
9- No dispersed batteries. Guns are arranged close to each other side-to-side.
10- Generally slow targeting if non-organic assets are involved. Accoding to RUSI publications if Russian artillery observers or UAVs find a target, it takes 3-4 mins for Russian artillery to attack there. If it is the infantry, EW, aviation or radar who finds the target, it takes 4 hours. This is absurdly slow. Counter battery reaction is faster than 2 mins in NATO exercises. Granted, exercise doesn't equal war but 4 hours is not comparable to 2 minutes. Ukraine is no better.
11- Widespread use of semi-targeted suppressing fires. This is why you see those moonscape photos.

Just like you I am not impressed by the Russian military at all. The problem is not their hardware. None of the problems I listed are caused by the lack of tech. Russia manufactures proximity fuses, SPGs, guided rounds, data links... The problem is the organisation

Russia is killing Ukrainian soldiers at a rate not seen since WW2. It's not just the Russians who are claiming it, the Ukrainians are as well. Back in June the Ukrainian Defence Minister said the number of dead was tens of thousands, and he hoped it was under 100,000, I'm sure at this point it's over 100,000.

Ukraine is fighting an artillery battle without artillery. The western media and all the Poles who come here are pumping out all kinds of propaganda to hide that uncomfortable fact.

The major criticism I have of Russian strategy is that it has completely failed to prevent Ukrainian attacks against civilians.

 

[RottenPanzer]

Today Russian MoD briefing:

Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine ️
(14.08.2022)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue a special military operation in Ukraine.

As a result of the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the settlement of Udy in the Kharkiv region was completely liberated.

✈ High-precision strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the temporary location of the 66th mechanized brigade in the area of Dzerzhinsk, Donetsk People's Republic, destroyed up to 40 nationalists and 9 units of military equipment.

As a result of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces on concentrations of manpower and military equipment of the 63rd mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Belaya Krynitsa and Belogorka in the Kherson region, 35 nationalists and 15 units of armored and automobile equipment were destroyed.

Concentrated fire strikes on the positions of the 53rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Sribnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic destroyed up to two hundred nationalists and 15 units of military equipment.

In the areas of Opytne and Pervomaiske localities of the Donetsk People's Republic, more than two hundred servicemen of the 56th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refused to perform combat tasks and voluntarily left their positions due to heavy losses. So, in the third battalion of this brigade, which operated in the Marinka area, out of 580 people on the list, about 140 military personnel remained.

Strikes by operational-tactical and army aircraft, rocket troops and artillery against military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.

A radar station for detecting and targeting targets in the area of the settlement of Perestovka in the Mykolaiv region, a fuel depot in the area of Slavyansk, two ammunition depots in the areas of Zvanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic and Iskrovka in the Kirovohrad region were destroyed.

In addition, two warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons of the 58th motorized infantry brigade in Artemivsk of the Donetsk People's Republic and the 63rd mechanized brigade in the area of Bereznegovatoe of the Mykolaiv region were destroyed.

Five command and control points were hit, including the 43rd Airborne Brigade in Velikaya Novoselka, the artillery group of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade in the Chas Yar area of the Donetsk People's Republic, the headquarters of the 247th battalion of the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade in the city of Kharkiv, and four temporary locations of the 113th units. territorial defense brigades in the Zolochiv area of the Kharkiv region, as well as manpower, weapons and military equipment in the 151st district.

In the course of the counter-battery struggle, the following were suppressed: a platoon of Grad multiple launch rocket systems near the settlement of Artemivsk, anartillery platoon of Hyacinth-B guns, as well as seven platoons of D-30 howitzers at nationalist firing positions in the areas of Zvanovka, Kuzminovka, Seversk, Pereezdnoye, Vesyoloe and Vyemka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Russian air defense systems have shot down two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of Lysychansk, Luhansk People's Republic,and Glubokoe, Kharkiv region. In addition, a Tochka-U ballistic missile was intercepted in the air over Lysychansk of the Luhansk People's Republic and 15 multiple launch rocket shells were intercepted in the areas of Lysychansk of the Luhansk People's Republic, Antonovka and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson region.

In total, 267 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1,738 unmanned aerial vehicles, and 365 anti-aircraft missile systems have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.,
4,303 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 798 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,298 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 4,888 units of special military vehicles.

 

[baykalov]

Russia is killing Ukrainian soldiers at a rate not seen since WW2. It's not just the Russians who are claiming it, the Ukrainians are as well. Back in June the Ukrainian Defence Minister said the number of dead was tens of thousands, and he hoped it was under 100,000, I'm sure at this point it's over 100,000.

Ukraine is fighting an artillery battle without artillery. The western media and all the Poles who come here are pumping out all kinds of propaganda to hide that uncomfortable fact.

The major criticism I have of Russian strategy is that it has completely failed to prevent Ukrainian attacks against civilians.

My relatives in Odesa (Bessarabian Bulgarians) say that there is a lot of talk in the city that the dead Ukrainian military is 150,000 and missing about 40,000.

But this is speculation, I have no source. The info is from them, what people in town are saying.

Their son, who is 32 years old, managed to transfer to Kherson in the Russian-controlled territories in April so as not to be mobilized. He even managed to find a job in Kherson and is now calm that the Kyiv regime will not send him to the front as cannon fodder and die for Zelensky's regime.

 

[Janiz]

Their son, who is 32 years old, managed to transfer to Kherson in the Russian-controlled territories in April so as not to be mobilized. He even managed to find a job in Kherson and is now calm that the Kyiv regime will not send him to the front as cannon fodder and die for Zelensky's regime.

Going into one of the most heavily contested regions in the war and moving to "Russia" for the hope of "not sending him to war"? Seems like a smart move.

vincent: removed economic related portion

 

[baykalov]

Going into one of the most heavily contested regions in the war and moving to "Russia" for the hope of "not sending him to war"? Seems like a smart move.

Kherson is a "contested region" only according to Ukrainian propaganda. Kherson itself is relatively calm, unlike Donetsk in the Donbass.

A friend of his fled to Western Ukraine in the hope of transferring to Poland, and from there he was forcibly mobilized and sent to the front in Donbass. He was lucky and surrendered to the Russians, he is still a prisoner of war.

 

[sheogorath]

Going into one of the most heavily contested regions in the war and moving to "Russia" for the hope of "not sending him to war"? Seems like a smart move.

Poking holes in a bridge every now and then hardly classifies as contested. Bakhmut is a heavily contested area, not Kherson.

 

[baykalov]

Russia buys 1,000 drones from Iran and expands the level of strategic cooperation

Iran and Russia had expanded the level of their strategic cooperation in various fields, most recently in space when a Russian rocket launched an Iranian satellite into orbit from the Russian launch facility in Kazakhstan. Iran will undoubtedly benefit from renewing its bank of objectives and identifying more targets related to its enemies based in the Middle East, mainly the US military bases and Israel. Moreover, Russia has signed a contract with Iran to buy 1,000 drones after Iran delivered a few planes and a simulator on which Russian officers trained: they successfully used the first drones in Ukraine. This move is considered unprecedented for a superpower to buy its drones from Iran. Tehran considers this to be recognition of its advanced and effective military industry, achieved despite 43 years of US sanctions on the “Islamic Republic”.

Russia has not dedicated much attention or adequate investment to the drone industry in the past decade. Instead, Moscow has focused on developing hypersonic missiles, which succeeded in attaining an operational level of this technology ahead of the US. Russia’s interest in military development has concentrated on nuclear warhead strategic missiles- whereas in fact drones have become necessary for every army. Iran also developed its long-range and precision missiles to reach a distance of 2000 km and they were successfully used in Iraq and Syria against different targets. However, as we can see, Tehran also focused on developing its drone industry intensively. Tehran used it in Syria and handed it over to its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, also transferring experiences to the Palestinians in Gaza.

According to well-informed sources in Iran, “the purchase of drones by a superpower like Russia is an important indication confirming the quality and development of Iranian industry, which has succeeded in producing the most advanced drones such as the Shahid 129 which can fly for a period exceeding 24 hours. This is what attracted Russia, especially for use in its war in Ukraine.”

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[Abominable]

Russia buys 1,000 drones from Iran and expands the level of strategic cooperation

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Is there a more reliable source for this? I've seen lots of rumours but no official confirmation.

Iran has pretty decent drones, but there's only one country in the world that can export 1,000 drones in a short space of time. If this story is true I suspect these Iranian drones are really Chinese drones assembled or modified in Iran.