Be patient my Padawan, believe and have faith in SMIC.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Remember @Oldschool prediction about Chinese focus on automotive Chips rather than leading edge node, well their wisdom contribute to further growth in China while the rest is having sales problem and market glut.
Jul 12, 2022
The main battle area for China is EV, not IoT.
THis is what made US so nervous about. China has made alot of higher node power electronics and logic, sensors for Electric car.
Each EV can have up to few hundred ICs. Alot of power IC, MEMS, CMOS sensors, MCUs.
THe most expensive chip in this car is the general purpose DSP(digital signal processor) , 200 Yuan.
All the chips in this car doesn't even need 28nm immersion DUV , 55nm/45nm dry DUV is enough.
THis is CHina's main battle ground.
Published: Aug. 11, 2022 at 3:52 p.m. ET
By
ADRIAN DENNIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Semiconductor industry CEOs this week celebrated on the White House lawn as the long overdue Chips and Science Act was signed into law by President Biden.
While there is still contention on the bill, with some calling it corporate welfare, the industry got much-needed relief as the U.S. put its supply chain, national security and global-technology leadership role ahead of politics.
The bill may have been a victorious moment for semiconductor companies, but as earnings season progresses, there’s a broader story playing out. With earnings warnings from heavyweights Nvidia and Micron Technology , and a recent outsized miss from the once-mighty Intel , it is a good moment to reflect on what last quarter’s results are telling us about the semiconductor industry and the downstream impact the results may have.
In short, the semiconductor space is migrating into two distinct groups. Part of the market is likely to remain robust through any downturn and a second part appears to be at a much higher risk. In some cases, some of the big semiconductor names fall into both.
. While a better-than-expected (released Wednesday) has sent the market into a rally, the bottom line is that personal balance sheets will struggle to keep up. We also see a credit bubble pop up along with declining housing values. All of which points to less discretionary income.
For semiconductor companies with significant exposure to consumer and discretionary spending, there will likely be short- to mid-term headwinds and slowing consumption. In the most recent quarter, Mac numbers fell, Intel’s PC numbers dropped, AMD’s PC numbers decelerated, and that will likely hit some lower-end mobile devices.
PC sales for the enterprise are also due to slow after a torrent multi-year buying cycle to help companies put people to work from home. Recent IDC data has PC numbers dropping 8.4% this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher. This slowdown will likely significantly impact HP , which could be bolstered near term by its backlog. Still, unlike its counterparts at Dell , Lenovo and Microsoft , it doesn’t have as broad of diversity in its portfolio.
It’s hard not to think this will also creep into automotive in the coming quarters. As supply improves, higher interest rates are certainly going to crimp demand. And while the Inflation Reduction Act may breathe a bit of life into the electric vehicle market, those numbers are still relatively small. The silver lining for semiconductor names with exposure to automotive is the rapidly increasing volume of chips in each vehicle, which is on pace to hit 20% of the vehicle bill of materials by 2030.
Finally, the Nvidia shout heard worldwide can’t go without mention. The company missed big and pre-announced its results, with gaming being the big reason for the drop. While a multi-year run of record revenues should bring some relief to investors, slower demand for gaming is the first part of the story. The second part is the rapid slowing of demand for GPUs for crypto mining as cryptocurrency prices crashed.
Deflationary technology will be more in vogue as companies sort out the slowing of the economy, continued high wages for skilled workers and a more hawkish Fed, which is steadfast in creating a supply-and-demand parity that slows out-of-control inflation. This trend will mean more spending on SaaS, cloud, AI, automation and any technology that can streamline productivity while offsetting large cost centers such as headcount.
Beyond the hyperscalers, early reads saw some solid results from the enterprise software and services space. Microsoft had continued strong growth for its Dynamics 365 software. ServiceNow saw strength and a propensity toward customers aggressively continuing their cloud migration journeys, growing 24%, with CEO Bill McDermott saying in an interview that digital transformation initiatives are stronger than macroeconomic headwinds.
Semiconductor company numbers told the same story, with few exceptions. Nvidia’s preliminary numbers showed significantly slower growth in its data-center business, but that is on the heels of massive record growth each of the past several quarters. Intel has delayed its Sapphire Rapids offering, which has hampered its data-center numbers.
Recent results from Qualcomm , AMD, Lattice and Taiwan Semiconductor were impressive. Each is buoyed by a different strategic positioning that bodes well in a more challenging economic climate.
Qualcomm has a strong relationship with Samsung and market leadership at the premium-device tier. Taiwan Semi’s Apple relationship is a significant tailwind. AMD is bolstered by more robust data-center demand and delays from Intel. And Lattice, a smaller semiconductor manufacturer, has its business heavily weighted to seculars like 5G, data center, cloud and auto, which helped it deliver record results.
However, the positive to come from comments in its filing is that there are broadening indicators of the supply-chain woes starting to turn over as inventories of semiconductors have increased.
Suffice it to say, there may be a short period of a slowdown across all semiconductors. Still, demand for technology in the enterprise and high-end devices, and automobile-chip-consumption trend lines all point to strength. That makes companies with minimal exposure to low- and mid-tier consumer tech particularly interesting.
Oldschool
Junior Member
Registered MemberJul 12, 2022
The main battle area for China is EV, not IoT.
THis is what made US so nervous about. China has made alot of higher node power electronics and logic, sensors for Electric car.
Each EV can have up to few hundred ICs. Alot of power IC, MEMS, CMOS sensors, MCUs.
THe most expensive chip in this car is the general purpose DSP(digital signal processor) , 200 Yuan.
All the chips in this car doesn't even need 28nm immersion DUV , 55nm/45nm dry DUV is enough.
THis is CHina's main battle ground.
Published: Aug. 11, 2022 at 3:52 p.m. ET
By
Daniel Newman
0Even outperformers including AMD and Nvidia face a slowdown in some segments after years of surging demand
ADRIAN DENNIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Semiconductor industry CEOs this week celebrated on the White House lawn as the long overdue Chips and Science Act was signed into law by President Biden.
While there is still contention on the bill, with some calling it corporate welfare, the industry got much-needed relief as the U.S. put its supply chain, national security and global-technology leadership role ahead of politics.
The bill may have been a victorious moment for semiconductor companies, but as earnings season progresses, there’s a broader story playing out. With earnings warnings from heavyweights Nvidia and Micron Technology , and a recent outsized miss from the once-mighty Intel , it is a good moment to reflect on what last quarter’s results are telling us about the semiconductor industry and the downstream impact the results may have.
In short, the semiconductor space is migrating into two distinct groups. Part of the market is likely to remain robust through any downturn and a second part appears to be at a much higher risk. In some cases, some of the big semiconductor names fall into both.
Big risks
After Intel noted a rapid deterioration in demand for PCs in its recent earnings report, it became evident that the boom for PCs has likely entered a bust cycle. Companies enjoyed multiple years of demand being pulled forward, and there’s now a period of normalization — which to most onlookers will feel like a steep decline.. While a better-than-expected (released Wednesday) has sent the market into a rally, the bottom line is that personal balance sheets will struggle to keep up. We also see a credit bubble pop up along with declining housing values. All of which points to less discretionary income.
For semiconductor companies with significant exposure to consumer and discretionary spending, there will likely be short- to mid-term headwinds and slowing consumption. In the most recent quarter, Mac numbers fell, Intel’s PC numbers dropped, AMD’s PC numbers decelerated, and that will likely hit some lower-end mobile devices.
PC sales for the enterprise are also due to slow after a torrent multi-year buying cycle to help companies put people to work from home. Recent IDC data has PC numbers dropping 8.4% this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher. This slowdown will likely significantly impact HP , which could be bolstered near term by its backlog. Still, unlike its counterparts at Dell , Lenovo and Microsoft , it doesn’t have as broad of diversity in its portfolio.
It’s hard not to think this will also creep into automotive in the coming quarters. As supply improves, higher interest rates are certainly going to crimp demand. And while the Inflation Reduction Act may breathe a bit of life into the electric vehicle market, those numbers are still relatively small. The silver lining for semiconductor names with exposure to automotive is the rapidly increasing volume of chips in each vehicle, which is on pace to hit 20% of the vehicle bill of materials by 2030.
Finally, the Nvidia shout heard worldwide can’t go without mention. The company missed big and pre-announced its results, with gaming being the big reason for the drop. While a multi-year run of record revenues should bring some relief to investors, slower demand for gaming is the first part of the story. The second part is the rapid slowing of demand for GPUs for crypto mining as cryptocurrency prices crashed.
Big rewards … maybe
A bright spot in the current earnings season has been cloud and enterprise tech. While there was deceleration in growth rates, the big cloud providers showed resilience as Alphabet’s Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and Amazon’s Amazon Web Services grew north of 30% and largely put concern about cloud demand to bed.Deflationary technology will be more in vogue as companies sort out the slowing of the economy, continued high wages for skilled workers and a more hawkish Fed, which is steadfast in creating a supply-and-demand parity that slows out-of-control inflation. This trend will mean more spending on SaaS, cloud, AI, automation and any technology that can streamline productivity while offsetting large cost centers such as headcount.
Beyond the hyperscalers, early reads saw some solid results from the enterprise software and services space. Microsoft had continued strong growth for its Dynamics 365 software. ServiceNow saw strength and a propensity toward customers aggressively continuing their cloud migration journeys, growing 24%, with CEO Bill McDermott saying in an interview that digital transformation initiatives are stronger than macroeconomic headwinds.
Semiconductor company numbers told the same story, with few exceptions. Nvidia’s preliminary numbers showed significantly slower growth in its data-center business, but that is on the heels of massive record growth each of the past several quarters. Intel has delayed its Sapphire Rapids offering, which has hampered its data-center numbers.
Recent results from Qualcomm , AMD, Lattice and Taiwan Semiconductor were impressive. Each is buoyed by a different strategic positioning that bodes well in a more challenging economic climate.
Qualcomm has a strong relationship with Samsung and market leadership at the premium-device tier. Taiwan Semi’s Apple relationship is a significant tailwind. AMD is bolstered by more robust data-center demand and delays from Intel. And Lattice, a smaller semiconductor manufacturer, has its business heavily weighted to seculars like 5G, data center, cloud and auto, which helped it deliver record results.
Uncertainty looms everywhere
Nvidia’s sobering early results, coupled with Micron’s regulatory filing this week alluding to the slowing demand being more than just PCs, certainly warrants some attention. That’s especially after having an excellent showing this past quarter with its data-center business.However, the positive to come from comments in its filing is that there are broadening indicators of the supply-chain woes starting to turn over as inventories of semiconductors have increased.
Suffice it to say, there may be a short period of a slowdown across all semiconductors. Still, demand for technology in the enterprise and high-end devices, and automobile-chip-consumption trend lines all point to strength. That makes companies with minimal exposure to low- and mid-tier consumer tech particularly interesting.
Last edited:
broadsword
Brigadier
Now, EVs are adding to China's balance of payment surplus when other goods are stagnating in their exports.
Bro people in Western MSM look down on SMIC BUT for me its future is very bright.
Is it really only a few hundred chips? I have heard of average estimates that are a lot higher.
Remember bitcoin was supposed to go to 1 million by end of 2022 and NFT was the new digital economy that was going to be infused into all transactions from online gaming to high end art?Remember @Oldschool prediction about Chinese focus on automotive Chips rather than leading edge node, well their wisdom contribute to further growth in China while the rest is having sales problem and market glut.
Oldschool
Junior Member
Registered Member
Jul 12, 2022
The main battle area for China is EV, not IoT.
THis is what made US so nervous about. China has made alot of higher node power electronics and logic, sensors for Electric car.
Each EV can have up to few hundred ICs. Alot of power IC, MEMS, CMOS sensors, MCUs.
THe most expensive chip in this car is the general purpose DSP(digital signal processor) , 200 Yuan.
All the chips in this car doesn't even need 28nm immersion DUV , 55nm/45nm dry DUV is enough.
THis is CHina's main battle ground.
Published: Aug. 11, 2022 at 3:52 p.m. ET
By
Daniel Newman
0
Even outperformers including AMD and Nvidia face a slowdown in some segments after years of surging demand
ADRIAN DENNIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Semiconductor industry CEOs this week celebrated on the White House lawn as the long overdue Chips and Science Act was signed into law by President Biden.
While there is still contention on the bill, with some calling it corporate welfare, the industry got much-needed relief as the U.S. put its supply chain, national security and global-technology leadership role ahead of politics.
The bill may have been a victorious moment for semiconductor companies, but as earnings season progresses, there’s a broader story playing out. With earnings warnings from heavyweights Nvidia and Micron Technology , and a recent outsized miss from the once-mighty Intel , it is a good moment to reflect on what last quarter’s results are telling us about the semiconductor industry and the downstream impact the results may have.
In short, the semiconductor space is migrating into two distinct groups. Part of the market is likely to remain robust through any downturn and a second part appears to be at a much higher risk. In some cases, some of the big semiconductor names fall into both.
Big risks
After Intel noted a rapid deterioration in demand for PCs in its recent earnings report, it became evident that the boom for PCs has likely entered a bust cycle. Companies enjoyed multiple years of demand being pulled forward, and there’s now a period of normalization — which to most onlookers will feel like a steep decline.
. While a better-than-expected (released Wednesday) has sent the market into a rally, the bottom line is that personal balance sheets will struggle to keep up. We also see a credit bubble pop up along with declining housing values. All of which points to less discretionary income.
For semiconductor companies with significant exposure to consumer and discretionary spending, there will likely be short- to mid-term headwinds and slowing consumption. In the most recent quarter, Mac numbers fell, Intel’s PC numbers dropped, AMD’s PC numbers decelerated, and that will likely hit some lower-end mobile devices.
PC sales for the enterprise are also due to slow after a torrent multi-year buying cycle to help companies put people to work from home. Recent IDC data has PC numbers dropping 8.4% this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher. This slowdown will likely significantly impact HP , which could be bolstered near term by its backlog. Still, unlike its counterparts at Dell , Lenovo and Microsoft , it doesn’t have as broad of diversity in its portfolio.
It’s hard not to think this will also creep into automotive in the coming quarters. As supply improves, higher interest rates are certainly going to crimp demand. And while the Inflation Reduction Act may breathe a bit of life into the electric vehicle market, those numbers are still relatively small. The silver lining for semiconductor names with exposure to automotive is the rapidly increasing volume of chips in each vehicle, which is on pace to hit 20% of the vehicle bill of materials by 2030.
Finally, the Nvidia shout heard worldwide can’t go without mention. The company missed big and pre-announced its results, with gaming being the big reason for the drop. While a multi-year run of record revenues should bring some relief to investors, slower demand for gaming is the first part of the story. The second part is the rapid slowing of demand for GPUs for crypto mining as cryptocurrency prices crashed.
Big rewards … maybe
A initiatives are stronger than macroeconomic headwinds.
Semiconductor company numbers told the same story, with few exceptions. Nvidia’s preliminary numbers showed significantly slower growth in its data-center business, but that is on the heels of massive record growth each of the past several quarters. Intel has delayed its Sapphire Rapids offering, which has hampered its data-center numbers.
Recent results from Qualcomm , AMD, Lattice and Taiwan Semiconductor were impressive. Each is buoyed by a different strategic positioning that bodes well in a more challenging economic climate.
Qualcomm has a strong relationship with Samsung and market leadership at the premium-device tier. Taiwan Semi’s Apple relationship is a significant tailwind. AMD is bolstered by more robust data-center demand and delays from Intel. And Lattice, a smaller semiconductor manufacturer, has its business heavily weighted to seculars like 5G, data center, cloud and auto, which helped it deliver record results.
Uncertainty looms everywhere
Nvidia’s sobering early results, coupled with Micron’s regulatory filing this week alluding to the slowing demand being more than just PCs, certainly warrants some attention. That’s especially after having an excellent showing this past quarter with its data-center business.
However, the positive to come from comments in its filing is that there are broadening indicators of the supply-chain woes starting to turn over as inventories of semiconductors have increased.
Suffice it to say, there may be a short period of a slowdown across all semiconductors. Still, demand for technology in the enterprise and high-end devices, and automobile-chip-consumption trend lines all point to strength. That makes companies with minimal exposure to low- and mid-tier consumer tech particularly interesting.
We were all supposed to wear VR headsets and head on over to the metaverse?!
Nvidia should go back to being a gaming graphics card company instead of pipe dreams of AI this, self driving that, etc
EROEI decreasing means soon all currency will collapse, starting with the CIAcoins, all these coins going to zero soon
Any comment regarding these articles?
Accordint to this
Duplicating the TSMC N7 process must have been hard, expensive and high priority. But it leads nowhere. What we see when we pop that chip open is not a scarfy future, but a tiny white elephant bathed in deep ultraviolet.
According to this:
But it’s not, really. What SMIC appears to have done is produce a somewhat standard chip, used for bitcoin mining, and with little evidence it can churn these out with good yields or at scale.
......................
It’s convenient to compare SMIC to Intel Corp., the US goliath that has struggled in recent years and also fallen behind TSMC and Samsung, but the harsh reality is that SMIC’s gap on the leaders has barely narrowed. ??
Accordint to this
Duplicating the TSMC N7 process must have been hard, expensive and high priority. But it leads nowhere. What we see when we pop that chip open is not a scarfy future, but a tiny white elephant bathed in deep ultraviolet.
According to this:
But it’s not, really. What SMIC appears to have done is produce a somewhat standard chip, used for bitcoin mining, and with little evidence it can churn these out with good yields or at scale.
......................
It’s convenient to compare SMIC to Intel Corp., the US goliath that has struggled in recent years and also fallen behind TSMC and Samsung, but the harsh reality is that SMIC’s gap on the leaders has barely narrowed. ??
The scale of Shanghai's integrated circuit industry grew by more than 17% (Even with Covid) in the first half of the year, and it is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in the whole year
Fu Xinhua revealed that as a region with the most complete integrated circuit industry chain, the highest technical level and the strongest comprehensive competitiveness in China, Shanghai has gathered more than 1,200 key industry enterprises, 40% of the country's industrial talents, and 50% of the domestic industry's talents. Industry innovation resources, the industry scale will reach 120 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 17%, and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in the whole year.
According to the People's Daily, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Shanghai will continue to uphold the global integrated circuit industry investment hot spot, innovation highland, and entrepreneurial stage, continue to expand open cooperation, create the best business environment, provide the most attractive policies, and cultivate the most active Ecosystem, helping talents from all over the world and pooling global resources to jointly build a world-class integrated circuit industry cluster.
Copium article. SMIC never advertised its 7 nm. A Bitcoin miner is also the opposite of a standard chip, it is literally an ASIC, which stands for application specific integrated circuit, application specific meaning, not a standard off the shelf component...
All in all I'm not too bothered by their cope, China is already #3 in semiconductor production capability above Japan and is more independent than SK and Taiwan in terms of equipment and materials.
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