Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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jwnz

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Barefoot said:
Of course it is far from certain.

But what is absolutely certain is that if the USA does nothing then China will be number one.

The USA has to fight or lose its position (or share, but that is not in its nature, imo)
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Well such is life, sometimes one just have to accept the inevitable, one could try to delay it but not stop it, bar force majeure.

As I have commented before, even without the West, China together with Russia and the Global South would have all the materials, technologies, military, and markets to decouple from the West and be better off. The West would likely be worse off in such a scenario IMO.
 
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Barefoot

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jwnz said:
Well such is life, sometimes one just have to accept the inevitable, one could try to delay it but not stop it, bar force majeure.

As I have commented before, even without the West, China together with Russia and the Global South would have all the materials, technologies, military, and markets to decouple from the West and be better off. The West would likely be worse of in such a scenario IMO.
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I'm sure the world will soon find out.

I truly don't want to get too conspiratorial (i don't think the anti-empire, anti-Anglo-Saxon forces are in a favourable position right now) but a country such as Pakistan could swing the balance of power, hence getting rid of Imran Khan (another country is obviously Turkey).

And yes, they have to fight, its not like anyone can go and live on another planet if they don't like the way this is one being ruled.
 
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Barefoot

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jwnz said:
Well such is life, sometimes one just have to accept the inevitable, one could try to delay it but not stop it, bar force majeure.

As I have commented before, even without the West, China together with Russia and the Global South would have all the materials, technologies, military, and markets to decouple from the West and be better off. The West would likely be worse off in such a scenario IMO.
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Exactly, yes, the West would be worse off, and they know it, so they have to do something to prevent that possibility.

US sea power is surely still strong enough to deny China/Russia/Iran access to the Global South.

There's a reason the conflict in Yemen is where it is, right on the coast of one of the worlds bottle necks for sea transport.
 
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AndrewS

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jwnz said:
Well such is life, sometimes one just have to accept the inevitable, one could try to delay it but not stop it, bar force majeure.

As I have commented before, even without the West, China together with Russia and the Global South would have all the materials, technologies, military, and markets to decouple from the West and be better off. The West would likely be worse off in such a scenario IMO.
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By my reckoning, the West currently accounts for 40% of Global World Product. This is the same group that have imposed sanctions on Russia.

But the rest of world (the Global South) accounts for the other 60% of economic activity and haven't placed any sanctions on Russia. Furthermore, these are mostly low-income and middle-income countries like China, so should continue to grow much faster than the West.

China is also much closer to these countries in terms of geography, time zones and development levels, so Chinese products are more suited to their conditions.

China still needs some time to develop alternatives to certain chokepoint technologies controlled by the West, but this should be manageable.

But yes, if there is a decoupling, it's likely the West will be worse off.
 
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