Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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dingyibvs

Senior Member
If I’m reading the tea leaves around this military exercise correctly here, I think this military exercise will be the “substantial” thing coming. They’re operating well within range of Taiwan’s air defenses and they might shoot missiles over the island. To do that sort of demonstration would require demonstrating some significant capacity for non kinetic SEAD measures. In the most extreme form this exercise takes it might end up being a demonstration of the PLA taking away Taiwan’s air and sea area control without intent to attack or go kinetic, and daring Taiwan’s military to initiate any kinetic response. That’s just conjecture on my part trying to map out the possibilities, but if this “exercise” goes in that kind of direction that would be a whole lot more than saber rattling.
That doesn't require drumming up support from the Chinese people though. I'm thinking of something that would impact the domestic population. Maybe a substantial increase in the military budget or outright war.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I didn’t make any bold predictions like most of the Chinese members there but I am too ashamed to show my face nonetheless.
I feel no shame, but more anger if am being honest because the bullies will use this latest shit show as proof of Chinese inferiority or how the PLA is just a force for display which is demoralizing to say the least.

At least buzzed by Pelosi's plane or something you know that could have showed China is not a country to be messed around with. Instead, the pussyfooting remind me of the Chinese stereotypes in the west were most act meek, weak which gives their bullies more confidence to be more daring and insulting with their racist taunts. Something that I hate and detested personally because I have seen it in with my own eyes that I had to intervene. I saw how Chinese in general just take a licking and avoids confrontation. I thought Xi was different but man, don't know how long can he take this much insult and yet wants to remain the President of the country.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Without no interference China would not have gotten foreign investment and gotten where it is today. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
to be so pathetically weak in PR that China can't even call on ideological allies like North Korea, Laos or CPJ, or ethnic allies like Chinese Malaysians or especially Singaporeans, it is a real failure.

Legend has it that in 1965 Indonesia, hundreds of thousands were saved because they took Chinese passports and moved back to China at great personal risk and expense. In 1997 Indonesia, thousands were not saved because they refused Chinese passports despite the embassy passing them out.

Was 1965 China particularly rich or welcoming? No. It was that they had a vision to sell, of the dawn of a new China that was rich and powerful, that 1997 China didn't. The fact that 1965 China was not particularly rich or powerful wasn't important, just that it was moreso than 1948 China and had potential.
 

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here are some differences between the West and China in soft power/psychological warfare. China is incompetent in this area. It has zero to do with funding/money, ideology, hard power (military), etc.


westnever allows an anti Caucasian into any meaningful position except to maintain the illusion of objectivity
Chinahires an anti Chinese Caucasian as senior news editor for Global Times and China daily English app

his profile - usa media that hates China, hates Chinese people, scapegoats China, spreads endless atrocity propaganda is controlled by China - usa bad but China 10000x worse so why isn't this guy dead? - everyone knows China's plan is global domination -
westChina is a totalitarian authoritiarian communist regime where there are widespread human rights abuses.
Chinacalls usa the "beautiful country".
westmany news outlets that appear to be independent, but are in fact often controlled by the intelligence agencies (eg covert warfare agencies like the CIA) to spread propaganda. This gives it the illusion of echo chamber/appearance of consensus so people will quickly believe whatever lies they put out
Chinaa few obvious government news sources that don't even pretend to be independent. Immediately dismissed as state propaganda and lacks the echo chamber/appearance of consensus
westmasters at language warfare - eg government vs regime, deter Chinese aggression vs Chinese militarism
Chinaa total failure at language warfare - you call yourself Imperial China vs ACTUAL REAL western imperialists NEVER call themselves Imperial anything. They are call themselves democracies, commonwealth, liberal world order, etc. You use stupid words like politicization of human rights instead of weaponizing human rights or hijacking human rights or perverting human rights. China called western lies about coronavirus the lab Leak theory, which implies it is a theory instead of a lie. It is the western coronavirus propaganda or disinformation or misinformation or lie, etc.
weststrong aeshetics, they put forward good looking people to deliver the message because it is more readily accepted
Chinaawful aesthetics, especially horrifically bad for the men, who look like nerds or creeps, and speak with gay lisps and broken english. This was the chief at Global Times He sounds even worse than he looks
westalways attacking. It is far easier and cheaper to attack than defend in this battle space. It’s is the same as attacking with missiles vs interception. Interception is super expensive and next to impossible.
Chinaalways defending and losing badly. Defense is necessary but it is impossible to defend against a never ending stream of Western lies. It is much better to set fires everywhere for the west to put out.
westsmartly attacks China's perceived credibility using lies. That's why they smear everything Chinese as something sinister - Huawei is a the CCP's spying arm so stop buying, Confucius Institutes is a a threat to democracy so shut it down, TikTok is a threat to national security and pushing cultural Marxism so steal it, etc.
Chinararely attacks the west's perceived credibility even when it's super easy and obvious to do. This incompetence is really unforgivable because psychological warfare 101 says credibility is key. Once that is gone, your efforts fail.

>Your **first job is to build the credibility** and the authenticity of your propaganda, and **persuade the enemy to trust you although you are his enemy.**

A Psychological Warfare Casebook Operations Research Office Johns Hopkins University Baltimore (1958)


>Psychological Operations soldiers use persuasion to influence perceptions and encourage desired behavior. The **cornerstone of PSYOP is truth, credibly presented to convince a given audience** to cease resistance or take actions favorable to friendly forces.

U. S. Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command Missions and Functions.

You call the Christian extremist and hired propagandist, Adrian Zenz, an academic researcher, lending him credibility he does not deserve. He should have been introduced in articles as Adrian Zenz, a German Christian fanatic who thinks homosexuals will burn in hell. That would instantly destroy his image to readers.

Refers to National Endowment for Democracy (NED) as just that instead of instantly associating it with the CIA, which most know is a terrorist organization. Why was the NED allowed to operate in HK, Xinjiang, Tibet? Pure total incompetence.
westweaponize generalizations/stereotypes to program perceptions into people's minds. Eg Chinese media is state propaganda, the Chinese people are the most racist, Chinese men are all misogynists, etc
Chinano generalizations or stereotypes, except positive ones (white men are gentlemen, the west is a utopia, etc) despite negative stereotypes being far more applicable to the west.


I barely scratched the surface.
This is exactly it. Private Chinese internet media outlets like Guancha produces far more attractive and persuasive content. Honestly at this point it's time to purge the state media and just let vetted private companies to handle PR. The government just need to set general direction and bankroll them. I mean, look at South Korea and how relatively successful they are.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
That doesn't require drumming up support from the Chinese people though. I'm thinking of something that would impact the domestic population. Maybe a substantial increase in the military budget or outright war.
I think that comes later. Tbh I suspect after this military exercise we’re going to see a pretty significant militarization of the Strait, much more than is already there. The message would be “next time we don’t just demonstrate, we can invade on a hair trigger long before the US has time to organize a response”.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Honestly, this is really a case study on the efficacy of propaganda. For very little investment compared to developing a nuclear arsenal, developing cutting edge fighters, or lavishing third countries with aid packages and gifts, the United States and the Soviet Union had both been able to make converts and loyalists out of those that may otherwise have been adversaries.
Another example of how post-Deng China is even worse than the Mao era in terms of propaganda:

1. Mao era propaganda got top tier Chinese American scientists like Deng Jiaxian (Purdue) and Qian Xueshen (JPL) to go back to China.

2. Deng era propaganda got top tier Chinese scientists to run to the US to become Chinese Americans and stay there even after legal persecution, like Hu Anming, Chen Gang and Xi Xiaoxing.

How much is an investment in propaganda worth if a single groundbreaking scientist either doesn't leave or comes back?
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
He will have to do something beside exercises because they can’t be publicly seen. The milk toast response whatever you like it or not has completely undermined public confidence and will have an impact on geopolitical relations. Doesn’t matter how strong the military is if he undermines public confidences belief that he will actually protect national security. Meanwhile, friendly nations will start questioning how strong is Beijing support really is when the US comes knocking. If Xi doesn’t do anything more then simply state. He must be removed.
If Chinese cruise missiles and fighter planes fly over Taiwan unopposed, and Taiwan’s air defenses for some reason don’t or can’t engage with them, that will not be something behind closed doors, or a milk toast response. The area these exercises are occurring are well within range of Taiwan’s defensive countermeasures. If that’s the extent of these exercises, it would be a lot more provocative and threatening than what a lot of people might think just reading the word “exercise”.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
He will have to do something beside exercises because they can’t be publicly seen. The milk toast response whatever you like it or not has completely undermined public confidence and will have an impact on geopolitical relations. Doesn’t matter how strong the military is if he undermines public confidences belief that he will actually protect national security. Meanwhile, friendly nations will start questioning how strong is Beijing support really is when the US comes knocking. If Xi doesn’t do anything more then simply state. He must be removed.
Why is he even seeking a 3rd term if the best he can do is keep saying how high master? The lack of preparedness for the upcoming visit of Pelosi was even more difficult to accept and understand when he could have mobilized all the necessary military elements to bring home the message that Taiwan isn't something to be trifled with over and over again. I mean Xi even thought of sending a message of speedy recovery to Biden who's done nothing but shit on Xi every chance he gets. Xi did the same shit with Trump. He welcomed the orange man into the Forbidden City thinking it would help suade Trump to no avail.

Why can't they talk in direct freaking language when discussing or talking to other world leaders, why use axioms and other non sense when the outside world don't give a rats ass what we say? Xi got told by Biden not to get involve with Russia in terms of military support Xi obliged. What did Xi get in return, more sanctions, more provocations...like for real dude? When are you going to start pushing back? Instead let's do another round of Zero-COVID lockdown that has frankly beginning to look like it's run its course.

I just hope with all the corruption drive he spearheaded which was necessary didn't include the purging of warrior leaders that were waiting in the wing for China. Xi maybe a visionary leader but man, he just seems to avoid or shy away from armed confrontations. Xi has lost the valuable lesson from Mao Zedong that power, all power comes from the barrel of a gun not $¥...what use is your wealth when it can be easily stolen, confiscated by your enemies. Stop making speeches of breaking skulls when you're not even prepared to break an 82 year old geezers plane.
 

supercat

Colonel
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