Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Bellum_Romanum

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They are most likely questioning China right now. Now, nations like the Solomon Islands would be much more likely to be hesitant to support China and more willing to toe the US’s line. It’s dangerous to assume that a flex is enough to scare your enemies off.
I just wish we had a Mao like leader, I thought Pres.Xi was made from the same cloth, or at least like Deng.

I wonder how would Hu Jintao handle the same situation if he happened to have the same PLA under his leadership. Would he have been more resolute or more calculating like Xi.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

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Hypothesis probability
Taiwan and its allies have been playing this game for a while. Ever since 2020, the US was continuously pushing for Taiwan to join the WHA to “contribute” to world health. In addition, since then, Tsai changed her rhetoric about independence to one that is about Taiwan being the defender of democracy, and the media was pushing hard that declaration since then. Finally Taiwan was pushing hard for the observer status since 1993, but it would constantly fail most likely due to the fear of a potential Chinese reunification attempt. However now this fear has been shown to be exaggerated as of now. So it is highly likely that Taiwan along with the US will do this again.
 

siegecrossbow

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I just wish we had a Mao like leader, I thought Pres.Xi was made from the same cloth, or at least like Deng.

I wonder how would Hu Jintao handle the same situation if he happened to have the same PLA under his leadership. Would he have been more resolute or more calculating like Xi.

We wouldn’t see any false bravados but I doubt that he’ll attempt and intercept.
 

LawLeadsToPeace

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I just wish we had a Mao like leader, I thought Pres.Xi was made from the same cloth, or at least like Deng.

I wonder how would Hu Jintao handle the same situation if he happened to have the same PLA under his leadership. Would he have been more resolute or more calculating like Xi.
Mao and Deng would definitely not order the PLAN and PLAAF to shoot down Pelosi. Killing another nation’s potential leader is a several millennia old offense that typically would set off a war. However, they most likely would be more aggressive in their response to the US, particularly Mao.
 

dasCKD

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We're trying to save the village, remember? Killing the village in order to save it isn't going to fly. The point is to strengthen and propagate China's ideology - anything that weakens that goal is unacceptable. If any Westerner is interested in providing expertise toward China's propaganda, he must work within these constraints.
This is a self-defeating philosophy. Were we in the middle of the 20th century and China was looking to develop a nuclear program, would it have turned away engineers and scientists selling their trade if they didn't conform to the Chinese philosophy? If China somehow managed to acquire the blueprints of a working prototype of the American sixth generation fighter program, would they have refused to look at it because the engineers that penned the design didn't subscribe to the Chinese ideology? Of course not.

Right now, China doesn't have a weapon. China doesn't have an apparatus with which it could favorably effect western sentiments on its policies and its status. China could sit and wait for the perfect, pure, Chinese-aligned individual who can create such an apparatus for them to show up, or it could compromise and actually acquire an apparatus that will be able to defend its interest.
Exactly right. So why should Western propagandists selling their expertise be different from Western businessmen opening factories? Both must adapt to Chinese culture and laws and way of doing things.
Because they're not selling things in the Chinese market! Propaganda, in this instance, is trying to sell Chinese policies and stances to a western audience! If China is to possess an effective apparatus with which to affect western consensus, they need to develop employees that can effectively understand and exploit western thinking and reasoning.
I agree that Western mercenaries who can provide these services would be useful. However, they must do so within the established framework or they're just wasting China's time and theirs.
The point I have been continuously making, because I think it is important to make, is that if China waits for the perfect employee to show up them they'll be waiting forever. Reputation is a tree that takes decades to cultivate. The longer China waits, the weaker the Chinese position will become and the more perilous it will be if China ever has to take Taiwan through military means. The virtue you maintain through ideological purity is one that Chinese men and women will pay for in blood.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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The effect of PR in all of these situations is MASSIVE. Look at the international reaction to this fiasco! Resentment from the Chinese public and mockery from the international. If the Chinese strategy is for the Pentagon to do the diplomacy and propaganda for them, then they've ALREADY lost! If war started today, then the western press will band together and call China monsters and basically the entirety of the western world, India, South Korea, and Japan will be listening to them and agreeing. Do you know why? Because China refused to fight in the propaganda space and allowed it to get to this point!

PR isn't a weapon you can just pull out from a box and hope that it works. PR is reputation, built over decades of consistent competency and effort. No sh*t the effect of PR in these situations is slight. China never bothered building up its reputational credibility! It'll be too late to fasten your seatbelt if you're in the middle of a car crash and it's far too late for China to build up enough of a reputation to stop Pelosi from getting a win once her plane's already in the air. Do you know how this might have been fixed? If China had began building up their reputation DECADES ago! If they had an effective propaganda wing! Do you know how they stop this from happening again? By properly staffing and funding their PR wing NOW!

Fire everyone in the propaganda wing. Hire in completely new staff and set them to the task of signaling. Make it clear, and reiterate, that the opinings of some tabloid hack from Global Times isn't the opinions and the policies of the Chinese government. Get rid of the Global Times whilst you're at it, or restructure it from ground up. Global Times is boring shlock with no serious viewership and allowing it to exist in its current state is a liability to the Chinese state and reputation.

Establish a channel upon which the Chinese government communicates with the western press and the outside world and make sure to keep staff on-hand to make sure that they can deliver the official party line and stomp out rumors the moment unfavorable rumors start cropping up. The moment what's-his-name talked about how Pelosi's plane would be shot down, have someone on-staff call him an idiot and communicate the official Chinese state line.

Hire on western-trained journalists who are either sympathetic to the Chinese cause or who are willing to tow the line for the luxury pay. Material support for the secessionists will flow in from mostly western countries and so acquiring the ability to 'speak the language' of the western world is paramount. Use these journalists to spread news of Chinese achievements, explain misconceptions, and downplay Chinese missteps and failure. Encourage Chinese students to pursue journalism in western institutes in the same way that they're encouraged to pursue engineering. As an example, the Goldthread youtube channel is a far better ambassador for the Chinese than Global Times has EVER been.

Show favoritism to certain western outlets, lure them in with promises of being able to be the first to question China on the policies and news, and use that position to build a mutally beneficial relationship with outlets that will give those outlets a business advantage of being the 'experts on China'. Hire on influencers for the same reason and have them tow the party line.

That is the MINIMUM China should be doing. This is all very basic policy in any party-based democracy, and so American politicians and therefore the American state apparatuses are incredibly proficient with this. China doesn't have this type of democracy, and so they'll need to learn.

If China wants more advice, they'll need to pay me hourly rates. I take my payments in euros, steam codes, and body pillows depicting the shipgirl Shinano from Azur Lane.
its not just liberal democracies. Soviet propaganda was so effective they were able to infiltrate highest levels of governments, and could call on western and Japanese parties (i.e. Communist Party of Greece, German Red Army Faction, Japanese Red Army). Russia, though technically a multiparty capitalist federal democracy but not regarded as one in the west, can call on the alt right. Iran can call on Shia. Even North Korea could call on Zainichi Koreans.

China's noninterference policy since Deng is the real killer of PR competence. No interference = no need for PR. China can barely even influence North Korea, Laos, or the Communist Party of Japan.
 

siegecrossbow

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its not just liberal democracies. Soviet propaganda was so effective they were able to infiltrate highest levels of governments, and could call on western and Japanese parties (i.e. Communist Party of Greece, German Red Army Faction, Japanese Red Army). Russia, though technically a multiparty capitalist federal democracy but not regarded as one in the west, can call on the alt right. Iran can call on Shia. Even North Korea could call on Zainichi Koreans.

China's noninterference policy since Deng is the real killer of PR competence. No interference = no need for PR. China can barely even influence North Korea, Laos, or the Communist Party of Japan.

Without no interference China would not have gotten foreign investment and gotten where it is today. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
 

name

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Here are some differences between the West and China in soft power/psychological warfare. China is incompetent in this area. It has zero to do with funding/money, ideology, hard power (military), etc.


westnever allows an anti Caucasian into any meaningful position except to maintain the illusion of objectivity
Chinahires an anti Chinese Caucasian as senior news editor for Global Times and China daily English app

his profile - usa media that hates China, hates Chinese people, scapegoats China, spreads endless atrocity propaganda is controlled by China - usa bad but China 10000x worse so why isn't this guy dead? - everyone knows China's plan is global domination -
westChina is a totalitarian authoritiarian communist regime where there are widespread human rights abuses.
Chinacalls usa the "beautiful country".
westmany news outlets that appear to be independent, but are in fact often controlled by the intelligence agencies (eg covert warfare agencies like the CIA) to spread propaganda. This gives it the illusion of echo chamber/appearance of consensus so people will quickly believe whatever lies they put out
Chinaa few obvious government news sources that don't even pretend to be independent. Immediately dismissed as state propaganda and lacks the echo chamber/appearance of consensus
westmasters at language warfare - eg government vs regime, deter Chinese aggression vs Chinese militarism
Chinaa total failure at language warfare - you call yourself Imperial China vs ACTUAL REAL western imperialists NEVER call themselves Imperial anything. They are call themselves democracies, commonwealth, liberal world order, etc. You use stupid words like politicization of human rights instead of weaponizing human rights or hijacking human rights or perverting human rights. China called western lies about coronavirus the lab Leak theory, which implies it is a theory instead of a lie. It is the western coronavirus propaganda or disinformation or misinformation or lie, etc.
weststrong aeshetics, they put forward good looking people to deliver the message because it is more readily accepted
Chinaawful aesthetics, especially horrifically bad for the men, who look like nerds or creeps, and speak with gay lisps and broken english. This was the chief at Global Times He sounds even worse than he looks
westalways attacking. It is far easier and cheaper to attack than defend in this battle space. It’s is the same as attacking with missiles vs interception. Interception is super expensive and next to impossible.
Chinaalways defending and losing badly. Defense is necessary but it is impossible to defend against a never ending stream of Western lies. It is much better to set fires everywhere for the west to put out.
westsmartly attacks China's perceived credibility using lies. That's why they smear everything Chinese as something sinister - Huawei is a the CCP's spying arm so stop buying, Confucius Institutes is a a threat to democracy so shut it down, TikTok is a threat to national security and pushing cultural Marxism so steal it, etc.
Chinararely attacks the west's perceived credibility even when it's super easy and obvious to do. This incompetence is really unforgivable because psychological warfare 101 says credibility is key. Once that is gone, your efforts fail.

>Your **first job is to build the credibility** and the authenticity of your propaganda, and **persuade the enemy to trust you although you are his enemy.**

A Psychological Warfare Casebook Operations Research Office Johns Hopkins University Baltimore (1958)


>Psychological Operations soldiers use persuasion to influence perceptions and encourage desired behavior. The **cornerstone of PSYOP is truth, credibly presented to convince a given audience** to cease resistance or take actions favorable to friendly forces.

U. S. Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command Missions and Functions.

You call the Christian extremist and hired propagandist, Adrian Zenz, an academic researcher, lending him credibility he does not deserve. He should have been introduced in articles as Adrian Zenz, a German Christian fanatic who thinks homosexuals will burn in hell. That would instantly destroy his image to readers.

Refers to National Endowment for Democracy (NED) as just that instead of instantly associating it with the CIA, which most know is a terrorist organization. Why was the NED allowed to operate in HK, Xinjiang, Tibet? Pure total incompetence.
westweaponize generalizations/stereotypes to program perceptions into people's minds. Eg Chinese media is state propaganda, the Chinese people are the most racist, Chinese men are all misogynists, etc
Chinano generalizations or stereotypes, except positive ones (white men are gentlemen, the west is a utopia, etc) despite negative stereotypes being far more applicable to the west.


I barely scratched the surface.
 

dasCKD

Junior Member
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its not just liberal democracies. Soviet propaganda was so effective they were able to infiltrate highest levels of governments, and could call on western and Japanese parties (i.e. Communist Party of Greece, German Red Army Faction, Japanese Red Army). Russia, though technically a multiparty capitalist federal democracy but not regarded as one in the west, can call on the alt right. Iran can call on Shia. Even North Korea could call on Zainichi Koreans.

China's noninterference policy since Deng is the real killer of PR competence. No interference = no need for PR. China can barely even influence North Korea, Laos, or the Communist Party of Japan.
Honestly, this is really a case study on the efficacy of propaganda. For very little investment compared to developing a nuclear arsenal, developing cutting edge fighters, or lavishing third countries with aid packages and gifts, the United States and the Soviet Union had both been able to make converts and loyalists out of those that may otherwise have been adversaries.
 
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