Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[siegecrossbow]

We should put the hot takes aside I think. We already had a couple of hours of making jokes, having fun, making memes, debating Jai Hinds and venting our frustrations.

However, I think now we should be at a reasonable level of having peace of mind to analyse the situation without emotional disturbances. If we think about it more, and as I wrote in my previous post, just China doing the minimum expected of normalising exercises in that manner is a huge win for China. Anything more would be a bonus.

In addition, given that Xi has acted calmly so far (ignore the idiotic propaganda stuff) and with the Pelosi stuff still allowed to be discussed so much (gathering consent of the people?) we might actually see something much more than a simple exercise in the following days (no unification war though).

If we analyse it carefully, so far, China hasn't done a single thing wrong (apart from that stupid propaganda stunt). These exercises mean that China has carefully thought about escalation ladders, punishment for the US, punishment for Taiwan, generating valid excuse in case Taiwan fires the first shot or China potentially drastically increasing its military spending.

Jai Hinds are the biggest benefactors from this regardless of what happens.

1) China does nothing (unfortunately happened) -- paper dragon Chinkis, Jai Hind.
2) Pelosi's plane got intercepted and turned away -- even U.S. is afraid of paper dragon chinkis, but we are not, Jai Hind.
3) Pelosi's plane got shot down -- U.S. owned by paper dragon chinkis, they are paper eagles. True super powa is Jai Hind because Chinkis don't dare to pull this stunt with us even after Galwan.

 

[Biscuits]

US dose not support Taiwan independence because the status quo benefits the US.

Most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo too. They do not want to be part of China over fear of mainland’s political system.

In another 20 years, most of the old guards that have family ties to Mainland will be dead. Forget about winning Taiwan over through economic integration or cultural ties. That’s not the reasons they don’t want unification.

So unification by force is the only card left.

They don't support it openly because they fear conflict, that is all. If the status quo benefits them, why are they trying to shake it up?

Most of China's population base agree that Taiwan Island is needed for purposes bigger than just the people there. If 1 or 1000000 Chinese on Taiwan don't want to be part of the Mainland's political system, they are free to leave and find a country with a political system more suited to their tastes, maybe ones where women are punished with forced birth for being raped. For obvious reasons, most mainland Chinese also fear the US political system and don't wish to see it have any influence outside US' de jure borders.

China has no obligation to win over Chinese in Taiwan any different from other citizens. If you like the way life is in the country, stay. If you don't like, leave. If you work with enemy agents, you will be put on trial.

Military resolution will happen only because US forced China's hand by influencing the ROC. But military resolution is no tragedy. Every few years, a civil war against flimsy, foreign connected groups are resolved by military means and the population almost alwats comes out of it for the better.

 

[latenlazy]

Let's wait to see what happens first. IMO there'll be something more obviously substantial coming from China than military exercises. I think if they didn't plan to physically stop Pelosi from visiting and had no follow on actions planned then the Chinese government wouldn't have broadcasted the event so widely. I think Xi is trying to drum up support for something big, I just don't know what yet.

If I’m reading the tea leaves around this military exercise correctly here, I think this military exercise will be the “substantial” thing coming. They’re operating well within range of Taiwan’s air defenses and they might shoot missiles over the island. To do that sort of demonstration would require demonstrating some significant capacity for non kinetic SEAD measures. In the most extreme form this exercise takes it might end up being a demonstration of the PLA taking away Taiwan’s air and sea area control without intent to attack or go kinetic, and daring Taiwan’s military to initiate any kinetic response. That’s just conjecture on my part trying to map out the possibilities, but if this “exercise” goes in that kind of direction that would be a whole lot more than saber rattling.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yes… I’m serious.

Then I think you're wrong. They lived with an outright dictatorship, they won't have too many problems with socialist democratic centralism. The biggest barrier is Taiwanese ethnonationalist tendencies, racism and their lack of fear.

People fear the US not only because of it's capability but because of their will. That's why many people, even here, thinks the US is a crazy aggressive no fucks given country that would engage in a strategic exchange because it lost a conventional war because Americans think it's better to not exist than to exist as #2.

People don't fear China not because of lack of capability but because of lack of resolve. China isn't seen as a crazy aggressive country. It is seen as an easily poked country that can't impose it's will on even the tiniest and weakest of bugs, thus it is costless to provoke or hinder.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Like I said time to get lost for Xi and the rest of the cowards & doves in the Politburo.

Maybe write him a letter like you wrote Ren Zhengfei. You singlehandedly saved Huawei, after all; surely you could do a repeat performance for the CCP. China needs you, tidalwave.

 

[Overbom]

I think you'll be disappointed again. You are expecting something PLA can't do for now

Well at the very least, I am expecting the exercises to be carried out smoothly and then to be normalised. Anything more than would be a bonus.

The ability for China to call up exercises whenever it wants right in front of or inside the Taiwanese waters, is good enough for me. If Taiwan thought the ADIZ incursions thing was a pain in the ass, then these normalised military exercises would be at an entirely different level

 

[Weaasel]

The Ah Q mentality is widespread after this humilation. Like I said time to get lost for Xi and the rest of the cowards & doves in the Politburo.

As far as you are concerned, anything short of shooting down Pelosi and immediately invading Taiwan or launching a barrage of missiles against them wouldn't be satisfactory enough...

 

[escobar]

People don't fear China not because of lack of capability but because of lack of resolve. China isn't seen as a crazy aggressive country. It is seen as an easily poked country that can't impose it's will on even the tiniest and weakest of bugs, thus it is costless to provoke or hinder.

and this is also caused by CN own useless bravado from PLA and the PR unit

 

[Appix]

Maybe write him a letter like you wrote Ren Zhengfei. You singlehandedly saved Huawei, after all; surely you could do a repeat performance for the CCP. China needs you, tidalwave.

Get lost with Tidalwave. I'm a totally different person. Look at my English. It's very rudimentary.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Then I think you're wrong. They lived with an outright dictatorship, they won't have too many problems with socialist democratic centralism. The biggest barrier is Taiwanese ethnonationalist tendencies, racism and their lack of fear.

People fear the US not only because of it's capability but because of their will. That's why many people, even here, thinks the US is a crazy aggressive no fucks given country that would engage in a strategic exchange because it lost a conventional war because Americans think it's better to not exist than to exist as #2.

People don't fear China not because of lack of capability but because of lack of resolve. China isn't seen as a crazy aggressive country. It is seen as an easily poked country that can't impose it's will on even the tiniest and weakest of bugs, thus it is costless to provoke or hinder.

Conversely, if you ask most Taiwanese today, very few wants to go back to Chiang style dictatorship.