Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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latenlazy

Brigadier
Nuclear arsenals make for terrible bluffing tools, because they require the other party to believe you will commit a national murder-suicide to spite them, if they violate the terms outlined. If the principles they are used under are sensible, and are inherently existential - then yes, they are excellent tools to deter such existential threats; but they are utterly useless in anything more mundane. Again, threatening to employ nukes against another nuclear power is essentially like strapping on a suicide vest and threatening to push the button. It behooves one to ensure they're doing it for the right reason.
The game theory typically suggests that the potential cost to yourself is a much greater determinant of whether you call the bluff than whether you believe your adversary is genuine about it. The strategic gains from the reward would have to overwhelm, or at least mitigate substantially, the cost of the bluff in order to make calling the bluff likely. I think that this sort of bluffing strategy with nuclear arsenals has worked quite a lot more than some policymakers and historians have cared to admit. But it’s hard to account for the actions that threats issued through your nuclear deterrence prevent.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Don't get me wrong, this is still a stupid and irresponsible stunt that Pelosi pulled. And in a few months any good publicity this stunt has generated will evaporate as the looming midterms approach.

However, SPAR19 will be remembered for a long time within China, like 81192, Yinhe, and Embassy bombing.
It's good to see you're finally returning to some balance.

If you want to be sad about something, siege, be sad that the enemy can only die once.
 
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